Oscar Nomination Reactions

Oddly, I find I don’t have all that much to say about today’s nominations – but I’ll give it a go. First things first, I got 81 out of 106 nominations correct this morning – which is better than I normally do by about 5 nominations or so, so I guess I should dash off these predictions quicker in the future since I do better if I don’t overthink them.

 

Biggest Pleasant Surprises

 

Uh, nothing really. That’s not precisely true – I do like that they found room for not one foreign language film in director like everyone expected (Roma) – but two (Pawilkowski for Cold War) – even if I would have loved to see a different director get that spot (Lee Chang-dong for Burning for instance). I also liked that the nominated both Yalitiza Aparicio and Marina de Taviria for Roma – even if again, I would have loved to see different people get those slots even more. I cannot even jump in with the critics who loved to see Minding the Gap and Hale County This Morning This Evening get in to the documentary lineup – because as I’ve mentioned before, neither were really released in Canada (it looks like both will play on PBS in February – so fingers crossed). But for the most part, the nominations were either expected or unpleasant surprises – or at least surprises I’m not over the moon about (I loved Dafoe in At Eternity’s Gate – and like that he got in. I don’t like that it came at the expense of Ethan Hawke in First Reformed or John David Washington in Blackkklansman).

 

Biggest Unpleasant Surprise

I could have done without the love for Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice – both of whom did better than I expected them to do today, and neither film is one I really like (the further away I get from Bohemian Rhapsody the more utterly forgettable it seems – the further away I get from Vice, the smugger and annoying it seems). I had resigned myself to some nominations – but 8 nominations for Vice is absurd, as is five for Bohemian Rhapsody. Thrown the mediocre and old fashioned Green Book in if you want to as well (I didn’t mind that film that much – but all the slings and arrows being thrown at it are more than fair). There’s just a lot of mediocre rising to the top of the nominations this year.

 

They aren’t really surprises – since they were never locked in – but I’m sad that Ethan Hawke and Toni Collette didn’t sneak into the lead acting races this year – both should have won, and the fact they didn’t get nominated is sad. Same with the complete shutout of Eighth Grade – I was hoping for a screenplay nod, and really crossing my fingers for an Actress nod as well – and they didn’t happen. I really don’t like how Burning didn’t get nominated for Best Foreign Language Film. In short, there weren’t too much nominations that made me stand up and cheer this year.

 

Biggest Surprises Overall – There were three WTF moments for me reading the nominees this morning – two of them were snubs (it’s not the right term, but it’s one we use) and one was a surprise. Won’t You By My Neighbor not getting nominated for Documentary was really surprising, although hindsight being 20/20, this branch often does not like to reward people who have already won – like director Morgan Neville has. The second was Bradley Cooper not getting nominated for Best Director. It used to be routine that actors turned directors would get nominated – and even win (Warren Beatty, Robert Redford, Kevin Costner, Mel Gibson, etc.) – but with Cooper being the biggest surprising omission in this lineup since Ben Affleck getting snubbed for Argo, perhaps the directors branch wants to protect its own a little more. The biggest shock of a nomination was Caleb Deschanel’s nomination for the three hour German film Never Looking Back in cinematography – something no one saw coming. I wonder if the nomination there – and for Foreign Language film – will spur a real release for the film – or if they’ll push it out to VOD before the ceremony. Seems like a waste to have a surprise nominee that no one can watch.

 

Who I Am Rooting for Going Forward: If you want to put me on a team for this year Oscars, then I’m on team Blackkklansman – which I don’t think is going to win anything outside Adapted Screenplay – but I would love to see Spike Lee win an Oscar for Best Director, and one of his films win Best Picture (it’s also the best film nominated in my opinion, so add that to the mix) – and I think it’s great that he FINALLY got nominated for Best Director. For Best Actor, I guess I’m rooting for Bradley Cooper, for Actress, I’m team Olivia Colman, Supporting Actor Adam Driver, and Supporting Actress Regina King. I think perhaps two of those will actually win. I am NOT rooting for Green Book – again, I don’t hate like some do, but I certainly do not want to see all the think pieces that will be written if it wins. It will make the reaction to Crash’s win in 2005 seem tame by comparison.

 

Other Observations: With her nomination this morning, Glenn Close joins Richard Burton in a tie for second place in terms of actors with the most nominations who have never won (that’s 7) – Close has a good chance to win for The Wife, but it’s not a lock, so who knows. Amy Adams got her sixth nomination – and she’s still never won – so she’s likely joining them soon as well (I don’t think she’s winning this year either). Willem Dafoe and Bradley Cooper both picked up their fourth acting nominations – and neither has won either – and Viggo Mortenson picked up his third, again with no wins. If first time nominee Rami Malek pulls off the Best Actor win, it will be disappointing for the vets. Sam Rockwell could become the first back-to-back Supporting Actor winner since Jason Robards for All the Presidents Men and Julia in 1976-1977 (Hanks won back to back in the 1990s – for Best Actor) – but I doubt it will happen. Mahershala Ali seems poised to win his second Oscar on just his second nomination – if nothing else winning Oscars for Moonlight and Green Book would be the exact opposite of Christoph Waltz winning for Inglorious Basterds and Django Unchained – as Ali’s two films and performances could not be any more different if they tried. Regina King seems poised to win Best Supporting Actress, despite the weak support for If Beale Street Could Talk overall. Stone and Weisz have both won before, and kind of cancel each other out, the role for Adams just isn’t good enough, and Tavira will be happy with the nomination.

 

While The Favourite tied Roma for most nominations with 10 – outside of Best Original Screenplay, does it have a real shot to win anything major? I cannot see it prevailing on the ranked ballot Best Picture – or beating out Cuaron or Lee for Director, or Colman beating out Close or Gaga or Stone/Weisz beating out King. I don’t think we’ll get to Gangs of New York/The Color Purple/The Turning Point like shutout – it will probably win for Costumes or Production Design – but it could happen.

 

Black Panther is in the strange spot of being the first real superhero movie nominated for Best Picture – and still being overlooked in all the other major categories – as Coogler couldn’t break through for Director, Jordan got left out of the Supporting Actor lineup, and the screenplay didn’t break through either. The Academy is willing to go so far, but not farther.

 

Alfonso Cuaron did break through in the Cinematography category – becoming (I believe) the first director to be nominated for a film he directed. The Editors weren’t so kind though, and didn’t nominate him there. It could be strange though – as Cuaron could win Oscars for Foreign Language Film (technically, that belongs to Mexico – but he gets to keep the Oscar), Cinematography, Director and Picture (and yes screenplay – but I don’t think he’s winning Screenplay). I cannot help but wonder how much Netflix becomes a thing to work against the film in this round – it helped in the nominating round (as it did for The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – that picked up three surprise nominations) – but what will they think when it comes down for the win.

 

 

BEST PICTURE

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

 

BEST DIRECTOR

Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman

Pawel Pawilkowski - Cold War

Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite

Alfonso Cuarón - Roma

Adam McKay - Vice

 

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale - Vice

Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born

​Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate

Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen - Green Book

 

BEST ACTRESS

Yalitza Aparicio - Roma

Glenn Close - The Wife

Olivia Colman - The Favourite

Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali - Green Book

Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott - A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell - Vice

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams - Vice

Marina de Tavira - Roma

Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone - The Favourite

Rachel Weisz - The Favourite

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Favourite

First Reformed

Green Book

Roma

Vice

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs

BlacKkKlansman

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star Is Born

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Incredibles 2

Isle Of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Free Solo

Hale County This Morning This Evening

Minding the Gap

Of Fathers & Sons

RBG

 

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Capernaum

Cold War

Never Look Away

Roma

Shoplifters

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs

Black Panther

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary Queen of Scots

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Cold War

The Favourite

Never Look Away

Roma

A Star Is Born

 

BEST FILM EDITING

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Vice

 

BEST MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING

Border

Mary Queen of Scots

Vice

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

BlacKkKlansman

Black Panther

If Beale Street Could Talk

Isle Of Dogs

Mary Poppins Returns

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Black Panther - All the Stars

RBG - I’ll Fight

Mary Poppins Returns - The Place Where Lost Things Go

A Star Is Born - Shallow

The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs - When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Black Panther

The Favourite

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

 

BEST SOUND EDITING

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

A Quiet Place

Roma

 

BEST SOUND MIXING

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

Roma

A Star Is Born

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avengers: Infinity War

Christopher Robin

First Man

Ready Player One

Solo: A Star Wars Story