Oscar Nomination Predictions

I’m not going to say I forgot to do my Oscar nominations predictions this year – but I kind of forgot to do them until the last minute. Which is okay really – all those advance predictions are pretty useless, and we don’t really know much until the last few weeks before the noms. So, these are what I dashed off in the last few days.

 

2018

Best Picture

1. Roma
2. A Star is Born
3. The Favourite
4. Green Book
5. BlackKklansman
6. Black Panther
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. If Beale Street Could Talk
9. Vice
10. First Man

Also Possible: First Reformed, Mary Poppins Returns

Analysis: I think you can count on the top 5 getting in no matter what, and your eventual winner is in there as well. I would be surprised if Black Panther didn’t get in, but given the history of the Academy and comic book movies, you cannot be 100% sure. When I saw Bohemian Rhapsody, I thought it was dead as a contender – and yet, here we are. For the final few spots (maybe 1, maybe 3) I would think If Beale Street Could Talk has the edge – although Vice, First Man, First Reformed and Mary Poppins Returns are all in the mix.

 

Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
4. Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
5. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Also Possible: Ryan Coogler, Black Panther, Damien Chazzelle, First Man, Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Analysis: It’s looking more and more likely that Cuaron wins this award – even if Roma doesn’t win Best Picture. Bradley Cooper is probably also locked (although we said the same thing about Ben Affleck for Argo). I think Yorgos Lanthimos breaks through for The Favourite, and Spike Lee finally gets his first Best Director nomination. I think the last spot could go any number of ways – I’ll say Barry Jenkins has the inside track, but I wouldn’t rule out Ryan Coogler, Damien Chazelle or even Peter Farrelly. Further back, I don’t think Rob Marshall has a shot for Mary Poppins Returns – but if they love it more than I think, who knows? Same with Adam McKay for Vice. I’m hoping for Paul Schrader – but I’m not holding my breath.

 

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
2. Christian Bale, Vice
3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Also Possible: John David Washington, BlackKklansman

Analysis: I thought all season that Bradley Cooper had this sewn up – but I’m not so sure anymore, since he keeps not winning. I don’t get the whole love for Christian Bale or Rami Malek – too good performances in not great (not good) movies – but they are gaining. Viggo Mortensen seems to be on track for a nomination as well. For the fifth spot, I think it’s down to Hawke vs. Washington – and I’m going with Hawke since he delivered my favorite performance of the year, so it may be wishful thinking. I also think a shock may happen in that spot – but have no idea who it would be.

 

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
2. Glenn Close, The Wife
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Toni Collette, Hereditary

Also Possible: Yalitz Aparicio, Roma, Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade, Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Analysis: Gaga, Close and Colman are locked – and one of them will win. I think Melissa McCarthy is a good bet for that fourth spot – but it’s a competitive year, so she maybe less secure than I think. After that – it’s wide open. Do they love Mary Poppins Returns (or Emily Blunt) that much? Will they go with the young Elsie Fisher? Do they love Roma so much that Aparicio that she gets the fifth spot? I am hoping for Toni Collette – so I’m sticking with that, even if I admit I’m probably wrong.

 

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgiven Me?
3. Adam Driver, BlackKklansman
4. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
5. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Also Possible: Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy, Sam Rockwell, Vice

Analysis: You can take Ali, Grant and likely Driver to the bank as locks. As much as it’s been odd that Elliott has been overlooked at a few award shows, I still think he’s in. I’m still betting on Jordan – but if the Academy cannot bring itself to nominate someone for a comic book movie, Chalamet slots in there – unless they really, really love Vice, then Rockwell gets in.

 

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Amy Adams, Vice
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
5. Claire Foy, First Man

Also Possible: Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased, Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots, Linda Cardinelli, Green Book

Analysis: Regina King is, I think cruising to the win, for many reasons. Her biggest competition is Amy Adams – who is way overdue for a win. Internal competition often hurts, but it hasn’t stopped The Favourite women this season, so I don’t think that will start here. That fifth spot, I’m sticking with Foy – if for no other reason I don’t know who else gets in as the other possibilities are from films that didn’t catch fire. If you’re looking for a left field choice, it’s Cardinelli. That would tell us just how much they love Green Book.

 

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite
2. Roma
3. Green Book
4. Vice
5. First Reformed

Also Possible: Eighth Grade, Sorry to Bother You, A Quiet Place

Analysis: I feel like this is the likeliest lineup – although something tells me Eighth Grade could slip in. But will it be Vice or First Reformed it knocks out?

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. If Beale Street Could Talk
2. BlackKklansman
3. A Star is Born
4. Can You Ever Forgiven Me?
5. Leave No Trace

Also Possible: Black Panther, Widows, The Death of Stalin, First Man

Analysis: I feel fairly safe in saying Beale, Blackkklansman and A Star is Born are all safe, I think Can You Ever Forgive Me is a good bet. And then? Who knows? That fifth slot could go any number of ways. I’ll say Leave No Trace – but who knows.

 

Best Documentary

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
2. Free Solo
3. Three Identical Strangers
4. RBG
5. Minding the Gap

Also Possible: Crime + Punishment, Dark Money, Hale County This Morning This Evening, Shirkers

Long Shots: Charm City, Communion, The Distant Barking of Dogs, Of Fathers and Sons, On Her Shoulders, The Silence of Others

Analysis: You can never tell what the Documentary branch is going to do. There are times when they overlook the most acclaimed or loved docs for their shortlist – or then shortlist them, and then not nominate them. These five feel like the safest bets, but who knows.

 

Best Animated Film

1. Incredibles 2
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet
4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
5. Mirai

Also Possible: Early Man, The Grinch, Ruben Brandt – Collector.

Analysis: You can probably feel safe in picking Incredibles II and Isle of Dogs. Ralph Breaks the Internet is also a safe bet. I think Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse could win – but it has to be nominated, and this is the most conservative branch in the Academy, so they may look down on it. For the fifth spot, they usually go with something foreign – so I’ll guess Mirai, which seems to be getting the noms when a group goes for five.

 

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma
2. Shoplifters
3. Cold War
4. Capernaum
5. Burning

Also Possible: Birds of Passage, The Guilty, Never Look Away, Ayka

Analysis: Like the doc branch, you never know what the hell the people voting for these noms are thinking. I still think Roma, Shoplifters and Cold War are safe. After that? Who knows? I hear this is a very strong lineup – and I agree as far as I can (I have not seen Capernaum, Birds of Passage, Never Look Away or Ayka – the other five are very good to excellent). PLEASE, nominate Burning.

 

Best Cinematography

1. Roma
2. A Star is Born
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. The Favourite
5. First Man

Also Possible: Cold War, Black Panther, Mary Poppins Returns

Analysis: I think Roma, A Star is Born and If Beale Street Could Talk are all pretty much locks. The Favourite is almost one. For that final spot, I think it’s really between First Man and Cold War – and maybe just because Roma is going to get those foreign, b&w supporters, I’ll go with First Man.

 

Editing

1. A Star is Born
2. BlackKklansman
3. Roma
4. Black Panther
5. Bohemian Rhapsody

Also Possible: Vice, Widows, First Man, The Favourite, Green Book

Analysis: I feel fairly safe on the top three – after that, not so much – although I think if someone is going to go with Bohemian Rhapsody, it’s this group for some reason.

 

Score

1. If Beale Street Could Talk
2. First Man
3. Blackkklansman
4. Isle of Dogs
5. Mary Poppins Returns

Also Possible: Annihilation, Black Panther, A Quiet Place,

Long Shots: Avengers: Infinity War, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Crazy Rich Asians, The Death of Stalin, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Ready Player One, Vice

Analysis: They did a shortlist this year, and it wasn’t overly surprising. I think you can count on If Beale Street Could Talk and First Man – and after that, it gets murkier. I like the three I picked, but wouldn’t be shocked to see something else slip in.

 

Song

1. Shallow from A Star is Born
2. Trip a Little Light Fantastic – Mary Poppins Returns
3. All the Stars – Black Panther
4. I’ll Fight from RBG
5. Girl in the Movies – Dumplin’

Also Possible: Revelation – Boy Erased, Treasure from Beautiful Boy, We Won’t Move from The Hate U Give, The Place Where Lost Things Go from Mary Poppins Returns, Keep Reachin’ from Quincy,

Long Shots: When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, A Place Called Slaughter Race from Ralph Breaks the Internet, OYAHYTT from Sorry to Bother You, Suspirium from Suspiria, The Big Unknown from Widows

Analysis: This really is a race to see who gets to lose to Shallow. Remember, this is a fairly conservative branch of the Academy’s, so I’m still not totally confident that All the Stars will get in – but I think it will. The rest are fairly safe choices – although I think Revelation could easily knock out anything not called Shallow.

 

Production Design

1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. First Man
5. Roma

Also Possible: Bohemian Rhapsody, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Blackkklansman

Analysis: The Favourite is probably your winner here – but it’s fairly safe to say Black Panther will be joining it among the nominees, as well as Mary Poppins Returns. First Man and Roma feel like the safest bets – but don’t count out a host of period films.

 

Costume Design

1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. Mary Queen of Scots
5. A Star is Born

Also Possible: If Beale Street Could Talk, Bohemian Rhapsody, Blackkklansman

Analysis: Always bet for period films here – although I think Black Panther’s superhero suits have this a nomination it can get, and A Star is Born should sneak in as well. But, there is a host of period films waiting on the outside to take some of these down.

 

Make-Up & Hair Styling

1. Bohemian Rhapsody
2. Vice
3. Border

Also Possible: Black Panther, Mary Queen of Scots, Stan & Ollie, Suspiria

Analysis: Another shortlist category. Truly could go any which way – those three seem like the likeliest three, but who really knows.

 

Sound Mixing

1. A Star is Born
2. Mary Poppins Returns
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. First Man
5. Roma

Also Possible: A Quiet Place, Black Panther

Analysis: Musicals are your easiest bet here – see the top three. First Man and Roma should round out the field (and of course are the very best of the films in the running). A Quiet Place and Black Panther are lurking just on the outside.

 

Sound Editing

1. Black Panther
2. First Man
3. A Quiet Place
4. Avengers: Infinity War
5. Ready Player One

Also Possible: Roma, Mission Impossible Fallout, Mary Poppins Returns.

Analysis: Musicals don’t do well here – here’ it’s about LOUD action – so adjust accordingly.

 

Visual Effects

1. First Man
2. Ready Player One
3. Avengers: Infinity War
4. Black Panther
5. Mary Poppins Returns

Also Possible: Ant-Man and the Wasp, Christopher Robin, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Welcome to Marwen.

Analysis: I was ready to say Black Panther was the leader here – and then the Visual Effects Society snubbed it (and Mary Poppins Returns) completely – so perhaps you want to sub in Solo and Jurassic World.

 

And that’s it – for now. I’ll be back with my reactions to the Oscar nominations when they come out – and will work much more on my winner predictions.