Oscar Predictions

The Oscars are this Sunday – and while it’s been a shorter season than normal this year, it still feels long to me. So here is an epic post than goes through what I think will win, should win, and something that should have been in the running. I start with the least likely to win, and end with most likely.

 

Best Picture

9.Ford v Ferrari

For It: A genuine audience hit, the film is also an old school Hollywood studio film, the type that they seemed to forget how to make. If voters wanted a nostalgia hit, without the bad feelings that the other backward looking films in the race, this would be the choice. It could also be a compromise choice – perhaps not many number 1 votes, but the widdle them down, who knows.

Against It: The film didn’t get nominated for Director, any acting awards or screenplay. Quite simply put, it’s not often a film can win with winning of those, but probably impossible for it to win without even been nominated anywhere.

 

8. Jojo Rabbit

For It: It was the audience award winner at TIFF – over several of the other nominees, which shows that those who love it, really love it. It is the type of feel good film, but with a series backdrop, that the Academy can go for at times. Some compared it to Life is Beautiful – a hit with the Academy 20 years ago.

Against It: Those who don’t like it, really don’t like it. I suspect it will wind up very low on many lists – something that doesn’t hurt in the nominating round, but can kill it in the ranked ballot winning round.

 

7. Little Women

For It: The people who love Little Women, really love it. Greta Gerwig has become one of the best, most loved new directors working, and this is a novel take on a classic movie that breathes new life into it. You can even dismiss some of the precursors it missed because it broke so late.

Against It: It doesn’t look like either actress nominated is going to win, and Gerwig wasn’t nominated for Best Director. Women are still a minority in the Academy, and while many men love this movie, it is a woman’s movie – and those have a tough time actually winning Best Picture.

 

6. Marriage Story

For It: One of the most critically acclaimed films of the year, it is a small film in a field full of big films. You’d be hard pressed to find many people who dislike the film – therefore, it could very well place highly on people’s lists, which in the best picture winning round is crucial to win. It has broad support from the actor’s branch – the biggest in the Academy.

Against It: It would be very quiet for a Best Picture winner. It would also be an upset at this point for either lead to win their category, and while Baumbach could win Original Screenplay – it’s hardly a lock, and it was not nominated for Best Director. It was always a lock for a nomination – but a win seems unlikely.

 

5. Joker

For It: It is the most nominated film in the list, and the highest grossing – neither thing can be dismissed. Those who love Joker LOVE it with a passion, and they will rank it number one. It is headed for a Best Actor win, and perhaps some crafts wins as well.

Against It: Those who hate the film, really hate – it will likely stick around in the race as others drop off, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it has a lot of 1^st place votes, and a lot of 9^th place votes. Comic book movies have never won this award – and I don’t think they’re quite ready for that yet. The director and screenplay probably isn’t winning either.

 

4. The Irishman

For It: A legendary director returning to a genre he helped to define, mainly to bury it. Veteran actors they love, and a lot of praise for critics. It received 10 nominations – which is a lot – so they clearly both respect and love it.

Against It: Did they make it all the way through the 3.5-hour runtime? Is it more respect than love? You can make the case that The Irishman is in a lot of races, but I’m hard pressed to find a race it’s the frontrunner in. It perhaps peaked too early.

 

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

For It: Hollywood is an insular place, and the Academy loves to hear stories about themselves – and this is a story from their past, that basically argues that there is value in doing work in this field, even if it’s forgotten – many will relate to the two male leads. It has been widely acclaimed since Cannes, and while there are certainly detractors, I wonder how many there are. This could easily emerge as a consensus film as others fall away. They have loved Tarantino films in the past, but he hasn’t won the big one – is he overdue?

Against It: Does that one very violent scene turn off too many voters? Does Tarantino playing with history? Is the fact that he hasn’t won this before mean that just not enough people love him enough? Does the backlash grow more vocal in the final stage? Many things could derail it.

 

2. Parasite

For It: The most acclaimed film of the year, and it has lasted since Cannes in May without any sort of backlash forming. It has managed to get in most places – tough for a foreign film – and people still love it, and very seem to hate it. It could easily emerge as a consensus choice when all is said and done. Bong is a director who is well enough established in Hollywood – and charming to boot – which can overcome some of that foreign hesitancy. The SAG Ensemble Award is huge.

Against It: No foreign language film has ever won – and every couple of years, we all fool ourselves into thinking this could be the year, and we are wrong, so I have a hard time betting it will happen until it happens. It got broad support from the Academy but not universal – the actors couldn’t break in, and it could have easily gotten another couple of craft noms it didn’t. Perhaps support is slightly softer than we think – especially compared to last year’s Roma, which didn’t win after all.

 

2.1917

For It: The latest breaking film in the race, and it got a big boost from the Golden Globes – where it picked up wins for Best Picture and Best Director. In a race where many felt pre-ordained for so long, perhaps this will still feel fresh in this very short voting season. It’s a war movie, and they do like those. It could easily win a bunch of craft categories – and the unexpected screenplay nomination show just how much they liked the film. While not everyone loves it, does anyone hate it? The PGA Award – the one with the same vote structure as this award – is huge – and the DGA award probably sealed it.

Against It: No actors were nominated – and they are the biggest voting branch. Once you get beyond the undeniable technical prowess of the film, is there anything much here? Most war movies that win have a bigger message, rather than just wowing you technically.

 

Analysis: I do think the top two – maybe three -  have a shot at winning this year, and eventually a compromise will be reached. In that case, what I would look at is what film has the least haters, and the most passionate followers? Couldn’t you easily see Irishman or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood fans putting Parasite very high on their list?
Who Will Win: I really tried to talk myself into thinking Parasite was going to win this – but I don’t think I can. 1917 has won the awards that usually leads to Best Picture.
Who Should Win: I would be thrilled to see Tarantino finally win a Best Picture Oscar, and thrilled if Parasite did it as well. But my favorite film of the year was The Irishman, and it gets my vote in the end.

Least of the Nominees: Take your pick between Jojo Rabbit or Joker – both films I liked, but had mixed feelings on. At the moment, Joker is my least favorite, but that could be because I watched it a second time, and what bugged me the first time, bugged me more this time.

Should Have Been Nominated: Any number of fine choices, but I’ll go with Terrence Malick’s A Hidden Life - which was a calm, serene, introspective film, and deserved more love than it got all year.

 

Best Director

5. Todd Phillips (Joker)

For Him: A massive hit, and one of the most talked about films of the year – the film has a lot of passionate fans – ones that got him nominated in the first place. It’s also an example of a director stretching beyond what he has done before. The haters won’t be able to hurt him as much in a non-ranked ballot scenario.

Against Him: His nomination was somewhat a surprise – and those don’t often win. The presence of Scorsese as a fellow nominee will make it even harder to ignore that Phillips basically copied his style, and two of his movies, while making this one. The nomination is a major win for Phillips in itself, and will have to be enough.

 

4. Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)

For Him: An absolute legend, respected by everyone, who returns to a genre he helped to define, and makes something bold and new, embracing new technology, while telling a classic story. In a split field, the respect for Scorsese maybe be enough to push him through.

Against Him: I have a feeling that The Irishman peaked too soon, and that it’s heading for a lot of losses on Oscar night. The respect is there, but I wonder if there is enough love.

 

3. Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

For Him: Tarantino may have two Oscars at home already – but they’re both for writing, and for those (like me) who think he’s an even better director than writer, that’s odd. He’s made a film that survived a backlash, and ran a very long race, and here it is, right at the end, perhaps the Best Picture frontrunner. He’s due.

Against Him: There are many who do not like him – or his films – very much, and he is a very divisive figure, and that odd Golden Globe speech probably didn’t help him much. The film seems to not quite have the strength needed down the stretch.

 

2. Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

For Him: Bong has made the most acclaimed film of the year, and has been a charming presence all award season. In a field with three winners in it, he’s the fresh face – and it’s such an amazing directorial effort, he could easily win here, even if the film doesn’t emerge in Best Picture. That has happened with increasing frequency in recent year

Against Him: Not much, except perhaps they want to award a homegrown talent – and they have two legends in the field that they can go with. The Academy isn’t usually the place to go for cutting edge new faces winning major awards.

 

1. Sam Mendes (1917)

For Him: The technical achievement that Mendes pulled off in 1917 is undeniable – and it may impress the Academy so much that they give him another Oscar, even if they go with something else for Best Picture – something that has happened with increasing frequency in recent years. They love war movies here, even more than Best Picture.

Against Him: I wonder if they’ll want to give Mendes a second directing Oscar when Scorsese only has one, and Tarantino and Bong has zero. It is a fresh pick, in a field that was largely set at the top end early, but I suspect that the film doesn’t have quite the lasting power of others.

 

Analysis: I can really see the top three, even four, winning this award this year – and the line is very thin between the nominees, but it’s probably just the top two duking it out.
Who Will Win: I think this is closer to going to Bong, than Picture is to Parasite – but, again, it’s hard not to think that Sam Mendes for 1917 isn’t going to take this.
Who Should Win: I would be thrilled with wins for Tarantino or Bong – but Martin Scorsese is my favorite director of all time, and The Irishman  is my favorite film of the year, so he gets my vote.

Least of the Nominees: Having Scorsese in the field really reminds you how derivative Todd Phillip work on the Joker was – very good at times, but it’s the difference between drawing and tracing.

Should Have Been Nominated: I’ll hold off on the best directorial effort not nominated because the lead is my choice in the next category, and say that the mastery of control that Ari Aster showed in Midsommar would have been a fine choice for a nominee, for a great, new young filmmaker. For someone from the Best Picture lineup who didn’t make the cut, I’d say Greta Gerwig did a remarkable directing job with Little Women.

 

Best Actor

5. Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

For Him: He is arguably the biggest star in the world, and he’s in what could be the best picture frontrunner. He also has a role that many actors will relate to.

Against Him: His win for The Reverent took the pressure off giving him an Oscar – he could well win another Oscar at some point, but it will likely take some time, and be for something undeniable – and this isn’t quite that.

 

4. Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

For Him: A well-loved veteran, who has been great in many movies for decades, and yet shockingly this is Pryce’s first nomination. Giving him the nom helps, but perhaps they want to make it up to him even more by giving him the win. He’s easily the most likable character in this field.

Against Him: He’s one of two nominees here to not come from a Best Picture nominee – always an uphill battle for Best Actor. Because he hasn’t been nominated before, it may well seem that the nomination is enough of a makeup award. The film quietly moved through the season, perhaps too quietly.

 

3. Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)

For Him: Banderas has been a respected actor for many years, and has been having a good third act to his career after his stint as a movie star ended. Teaming up with Almodovar again, who gave him an early start, and playing a version of the director himself is a great story. It is a quiet, devastating performance.

Against Him: Is it too quiet? Is the film too foreign? Banderas hasn’t been nominated before, so perhaps the nomination is seen as enough of an award. The film couldn’t crack the best picture lineup, which hurts.

 

2. Adam Driver (Marriage Story)

For Him: He is a very well-respected actor, who is quickly becoming considered the best actor of his generation. With Star Wars, he’s also a star. This is his second nomination – and second in two years – and he is almost certain to win at some point. He probably won more awards than anyone else this season, and if they want to give a film they cleared loved a major award, this is perhaps the best chance.

Against Him: Is the performance too quiet – other than that one unforgettable scene? If he’s becoming seen as the best actor of his generation, his main competition has been considered that for a lot longer now, with more nominations in his past, and no victory as of yet. Driver will win at some point – but this year may just not be that year.

 

1. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

For Him: Phoenix is a very well-respected actor, on his fourth nomination, his first nearly 20 years ago, and any number of great performances that went un-nominated as well. This is perhaps the most talked about performance of the year, and even some who don’t like the movie, like the performance. It’s the kind of show-offy performance that wins awards – and given that his competition doesn’t do that, it may be even safer.

Against Him: There are those who hate the film so much that they won’t vote for him. How many of them there are will determine if there is an upset?

 

Analysis: For much of the season, I saw this as a two horse race between Phoenix and Driver – but Phoenix has undeniably taken the lead, and unless there is a stumble, I don’t expect him to lost.
Who Will Win: It’s not a lock, but Joaquin Phoenix for Joker is pretty much as close to one as you will see without it being one.
Who Should Win: Phoenix and Adam Driver would be my choices for the two best actors working today – and Marriage Story is one of Driver’s very best performances, so he gets my vote. Phoenix’s performance in Joker is nowhere near as good as he’s been in The Master, Inherent Vice, Her, You Were Never Really Here among others – so I’d prefer him to win for something that ranks among his very best.

Least of the Nominees: I quite enjoyed Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes – but there were a lot of deserving nominees that didn’t get in, and he’d be the first one I’d knock out for one of them.

Should Have Been Nominated: Yes, I think Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems delivered the best performance of the year in this category, and should have gotten in, despite the not stellar career otherwise. I also would have loved to see Robert DeNiro get recognized for his amazing, subtle work in The Irishman.

 

Best Actress

5. Charlize Theron (Bombshell)

For Her: Theron has won before for a performance where makeup does a lot of work to make her look like a real life character. It is a very impressive impersonation of Megyn Kelly – and those can win you Oscars, even if they lack depth. It is a very timely movie, which may help her.

Against Her: When you’ve won before, you need a very compelling story to win again – and I don’t think Theron has that. The film got mixed reviews, and hasn’t exactly set box office on fire. The nomination is the win here.

 

4. Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)

For Her: Erivo is just an Oscar away from an EGOT – quite the accomplishment for an actress who most are just getting to know now. This is the type of historical role that the Academy can embrace, and she anchors the entire film.

Against Her: The film isn’t particularly well-loved, and was seen by many as kind of dull, outside or Erivo. You can still win with that – the winner this year is in the same boat – but you need the momentum, and she doesn’t have it.

 

3. Saorise Ronan (Little Women)

For Her: Ronan is still young, but she’s already on her fourth nomination, so she’s certainly getting into the stage where people think she is overdue. She is one of only two for a Best Picture nominee, which means she has people who may want to reward the film by rewarding her. It’s a novel take of a legendary literarily character.

Against Her: I’m not sure it’s quite novel enough – and no one who has played Jo March has won an Oscar before for their work either, so perhaps the role just won’t win, or they don’t want to define this as the best. Ronan’s time is probably coming sooner or later, but for now, it’s a little later.

 

2. Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)

For Her: Johansson has been around for so long, and is so popular, that it’s kind of shocking that this year saw her get her first and second Oscar noms. Her performance in Marriage Story has received some of the best reviews of her career – and she isn’t likely to win the other nom this year, so if you want to reward Johansson this year, this is her chance.

Against Her: Driver got even more praise, and prizes, over the course of the season – while Johansson has been nominated everywhere, she hasn’t actually won anything yet – you would think she’d need to do that to actually challenge for the win.

 

1. Renee Zellweger (Judy)

For Her: It’s been impressive that Zellweger has pretty much run wire to wire in the lead, and has never really sparked that much of a backlash, It’s a great performance, and a great comeback story, for Zellweger, and she hasn’t really stumbled the entire season, winning what she needs to stay in the lead.

Against Her: The movie itself isn’t nearly as good as Zellweger is in it, so if they want to give it to a great movie, they’ll have to look elsewhere. Some don’t even like her in the film as much – so I wonder if a late backlash is forming.

 

Analysis: It’s odd, normally you see a few contenders bubble up throughout the season for a week or two and steal the buzz from the frontrunner, but that hasn’t happened here. Pretty much since Telluride/Toronto, Zellweger has been in the lead, and nothing has really stopped that buzz.
Who Will Win: In as close to a lock as you can get, Rene Zellweger in Judy will be the winner, unless a shock happens (which they can – just look at last year).
Who Should Win: With the best performance in this category this year un-nominated (see below), my vote goes to Scarlett Johansson in Marriage Story, who delivers the type of performance that reminds you of how good she can be when she’s not in franchise movies.

Least of the Nominees: I thought she was good – but Charlize Theron in Bombshell – was the easy choice here. There were lots of great work that went unnoticed for this good impression to break the lineup.

Should Have Been Nominated: One of the very best performances in any category this year was Lupita Nyong’o in Us, an amazing duel performance that leaves everyone in this category in her dust. Was it the long distance race she had to run? Genre bias? Something else? I don’t know, but this performance is already legendary, and not having it nominated is a little embarrassing.

 

Supporting Actor

5. Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)

For Him: He is a legend, and he’s over 80, and on his fifth nomination – his first in more than 20 years. It’s easy, in a way, for Pryce to make Pope Francis lovable – much harder for Hopkins, to not make Benedict lovable, but more human and understandable. There may not be another chance to give Hopkins an Oscar.

Against Him: He already has an Oscar for The Silence of the Lambs, so there is not real need to give him another one – particularly for a film that isn’t quite as loved as some of the other films in the running. He was a fringe candidate that snuck in, and they usually do not win.

 

4. Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)

For Him: Is there anyone else as loved than Tom Hanks – and here he is playing another of the most loved people in America, Mister Rogers. And yet, while Hanks could have sleepwalked through his role, he doesn’t – he makes Mister Rogers a little more complex than I thought. For all the groupthink that assumes Hanks is nominated all the time, this is his first nomination since CastAway way back in 2000.

Against Him: In a category stacked with former winner, he’s the only two-time winner – and you have to wonder if voters won’t want to give him a third win, before Hopkins, Pacino or Pesci get their second. As the film’s lone nominee, it’s clear they don’t love his film as much.

 

3. Al Pacino (The Irishman)

For Him: An absolute legend, who with his ninth nomination enters rarified territory, tying Paul Newman and Spencer Tracy, and now only behind Laurence Olivier and Jack Nicholson for most male acting nominees. Shocking, it’s his first nomination since his dual noms way back in 1992 (where he finally won his one and only Oscar). This is a big, show-offy role, but not so show-offy that he goes over the top like Pacino can – he also breaks your break heart.

Against Him: Internal competition – Joe Pesci, is also a legend, and got even more praise than Pacino did for his role in The Irishman. When you have two nominees for the same film, you have to be an undeniable winner – Pacino isn’t that.

 

2. Joe Pesci (The Irishman)

For Him: They clearly loved The Irishman – a return to a genre that Scorsese perfected, with the help of Pesci decades ago. Perhaps the most shocking thing about it though was how different Pesci was to those roles in GoodFellas or Casino – a masterclass in understated subtly, which has garnered Pesci almost unanimous best in show reviews. He is also a legend – and gave the best Oscar speech of all time (look it up if you don’t know it).

Against Him: This is a category stacked with legends – and while Pesci is certainly one as well, I don’t know he’s quite at the level of Pacino, Hanks or Hopkins – so will they want to give him a second Oscar before Pacino or Hopkins? Pacino will strip away some votes even among The Irishman’s supporters.

 

1. Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

For Him: He’s the only nominee in the category without an acting Oscar (he has one for producing – but who remembers that?) – and that’s a big thing. He is a huge movie star, and one of the best looking men on the planet – but has reached the age that the Academy gives these heart throbs their Oscars. He’s also basically a lead in the movie, so he has a lot a screen time. He has won all the key precursors, and is seemingly the one element of the film that even those who don’t like it praise.

Against Him: Not a lot really – while it was mildly controversial to be placed in the supporting category at first, he’s cruised through the season without hitting any real roadblocks. He is the youngest of the nominees – so if people think it may be the last time to reward one of his fellow nominees, perhaps someone can comeback.

 

Analysis: Brad Pitt has basically cruised through this season – he’s the type of movie star who can hold off the legendary field he’s in, and it doesn’t hurt that the other four all have an acting Oscar already – so this is one of the safest bets of the night.
Who Will Win: It’s a no brainer – Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood wins it easily.
Who Should Win: My hardest choice of the night – in my mind, the two best performances of the year, in any category, are Pesci and Brad Pitt - but Pitt gets my vote here, even if I still do kind of think he should have been in the lead category.

Least of the Nominees: I think he’s good, but Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes is clearly the weakest link in this category.

Should Have Been Nominated: It really is about time that people realize that Kang-ho Song is one of the best actors in the world, particularly when working with Bong, and his performance in Parasite should have been here.

 

Supporting Actress

5. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell

For Her: Bates is a legend, on her fourth nomination, and her first in 17 years. She’s always good in everything, and the fact that she got in for Richard Jewell – which ended up being a non-starter everyone else, show just how much they love her.

Against Her: As the only nominee with an Oscar at home already, she’s at a disadvantage. As the film’s only nominee, she’s at a disadvantage. They clearly love her – she wouldn’t have gotten in if they didn’t – but that’s not enough to get her the win.

 

4. Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

For Her: Robbie had a terrific year – she could have been nominated for Best Picture nominee Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as well. She is also a genuine movie star, and well liked, and on her second nomination. She succeeded in sneaking in for Bombshell, even though unlike the rest of the cast, she couldn’t rely on doing an impression of a famous person.

Against Her: Reviews of the film were mixed, and it hasn’t really become a hit. Oddly, she may have had a better chance had she been nominated for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – a less showy, but more emotional role.

 

3. Florence Pugh (Little Women)

For Her: Pugh probably wins this category on difficulty – having to play Amy from a child to an adult, and doing it all convincingly. It’s also a different take on Amy March, a very famous role. She is a rising star – also with a great performance in Midsommar this year. She is the kind of the young rising star that wins here.

Against Her: You would think that she would have pulled off a victory somewhere along the line if this was going to happen – and she just hasn’t. Sometimes, the young rising star wins – often they need to wait for a second or third nomination.

 

2. Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)

For Her: Johansson has been around forever, and this year she finally got her first and second nomination. She probably isn’t going to win Best Actress, so if they want to award a movie star, in her career year, then perhaps this is where they do it. Jojo Rabbit clearly has a fan base in the Academy, and it could easily be shutout if she doesn’t win.

Against Her: The film is probably too divisive to pull off this win, and just isn’t her year. It’s great that she has finally broken through with the Academy – but she’ll have to wait for another year to actually win an Oscar.

 

1. Laura Dern (Marriage Story)

For Her: Dern has always been a great actress – and she’s been around for more than 30 years now. This is her third nomination, and she hasn’t won yet. With her daring TV work in stuff like Twin Peaks and Big Little Lies, she has moved into beloved territory in recent year. Her career is long, strange, daring and yet mainstream enough that there is a broad coalition of people who love her.

Against Her: Is the performance itself worthy of an Oscar, or is this a career achievement award? If more view it as the latter, she could be in trouble – they’ve been less sentimental in the last 20 years or so than you think.

 

Analysis: Laura Dern has basically been out front all season, and everyone else waited for her to stumble, and she just never did.
Who Will Win: It would be shocking if anyone but Laura Dern in Marriage Story pulled off the win at this point.
Who Should Win: If I can pretend that she’s nominated for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, I’d chose Robbie. Since I can’t, I’ll got with Dern – mainly because she is a brilliant actress, who has never won, and I can pretend she won for a David Lunch film.

Least of the Nominees: I’m not even convinced that Scarlett Johansson gave the best supporting actress performance in Jojo Rabbit – as I really like Thomasin Mackenzie – and she wouldn’t have been in my lineup either.

Should Have Been Nominated: It was very disappointing this season to see that pretty much everyone ignored Waves – in part because I thought Taylor Russell was so heartfelt and subtle and brilliant in that film.

 

Adapted Screenplay

5. Anthony McCarten (The Two Popes)

For Him: The Academy really seems to like McCartern – he’s had three nominations in just the last 5 years (and had another film nominated for Best Picture). He writes the type of films that the Academy flips for – and can sweep their writers in.

Against Him: For him to win for one of these, he will likely have to wrote a Best Picture – and this isn’t even nominated. Also, it’s not much of an adaptation – adapting his own play that was never produced, and the Writers Guild thought it was original – if it was deemed that way by the Academy, this wouldn’t even have been nominated.

 

4. Todd Phillips and Scott Silver (Joker)

For Them: As the most nominated film of the year, if Joker goes on a sweep, then they get swept right along with it. It certainly tapped into some kind of zeitgeist.

Against Them: Joker isn’t going on a sweep, so they aren’t going to be swept along. The film has as many detractors as lovers – and the screenplay takes a lot of that hate.

 

3. Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)

For Him: Waititi is a very popular guy – he wrote, directed and starred as Hitler in this film, which clearly has a lot of fans in the Academy – if they want to reward him, this is the one chance he has. It’s rather daring to write a comedy with Hitler.

Against Him: There are few films in the race this year as divisive as Jojo Rabbit – which don’t hurt in the nominating round, but can kill you in the winning round.

 

2. Steve Zaillian (The Irishman)

For Him: This ambitious, massively long film starts with the screenplay – from its structure to its long runtime, to its observations about death, and it all starts with Zallian’s screenplay. They clearly like Zallian – he’s won before (for Schlinder’s List) and this is his fifth nomination. This may well be the chance to keep it going 0-10. The film is removed for competing with the real contenders for Best Picture.

Against Him: When The Irishman gets talked about – which is a lot – Scorsese gets talked about, and then the cast, then probably Thelma the editor, then perhaps Zallian – so it’s not really seen as his accomplishment.

 

1. Greta Gerwig (Little Women)

For Her: Gerwig has quickly become a loved figure in the film community – just two years ago, she scored Picture, Director and Screenplay noms, and this time she’s back with a Best Picture nominee, and a writing nod. They’ve been criticized for not giving her a director nod this time out – so perhaps a win here deflates. So takes a very well-known novel, and reinvents it in her own way – that’s directing, and writing.

Against Her: Did they criticize the Academy so much that some will be bitter and not vote for her? Is the male heavy Academy going with the “women’s movie” over The Irishman - the ultimate dad movie?

 

Analysis: It’s probably down to the top 2 – and if it’s not, I’d be shocked by it. I could convince myself in either director – but they have a history of giving a director a consolation prize in screenplay.
Who Will Win: I do think that Little Women does it here – the goodwill from Lady Bird, the love of this movie, which is winning nothing else, and for Gerwig herself, takes to for the win.
Who Should Win: I loved Gerwig’s work, but Zallian’s screenplay for The Irishman is a complex masterwork of writing.

Least of the Nominees: Here, I’ll go with Joker – which is perhaps a better movie than both Jojo Rabbit or The Two Popes, but is a film that needs a great performance, the direction, and the crafts, to make up for a screenplay that I think is confused and contradictory – and the weakest aspect of the film.

Should Have Been Nominated: This was a weak category this year, but of the screenplays in the running, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood was better than all but the top 2 nominees here – and for a film that was nowhere close, Transit was an ambitious reworking of an old novel, for modern day.

 

Best Original Screenplay

5. Rian Johnson (Knives Out)

For Him: Knives Out became a later year critical and commercial hit – and one for adults, that depends purely on the strength of Johnson’s screenplay and the great cast. It brings back an old school genre, but with a modern twist.

Against Him: The film didn’t break into any other categories – had it snuck into the Best Picture lineup, he’d still be a longshot. Without that, he doesn’t have a chance.

 

4. Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns (1917)

For Them: 1917 has become perhaps the Best Picture winner, and so this wouldn’t be the first Best Picture winner to drag along a screenplay into the victory circle. If they aren’t voting for Mendes for Director, is this a consolation prize?

Against Them: Does anyone, anywhere, talk about this film’s screenplay? I’m not bad mouthing it – just pointing out that this isn’t really a writer’s film, nor does it need the screenplay for most of its power. There are three powerhouses above this.

 

3. Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)

For Him: Marriage Story has been a powerhouse contender for the entire season – and yet it’s looking like other than Laura Dern, it’s going home empty handed. Baumbach has been around for a while, and hasn’t won, so perhaps it’s his time – and a consolation prize for not getting nominated for Best Director. Probably the purest “writer’s film” of the nominees.

Against Him: Marriage Story has slid out of the Best Picture race – the top two have not. Baumbach is in the race to be sure – but it’s become a longer and longer shot over time.

 

2. Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

For Him: They love Tarantino’s writing – he’s won two writing Oscars already – and this is a film that has probably won more writing prizes than anything else this year. As the film has slid a little further out of the Best Picture race, if they want to reward him, this is the place.

Against Him: He’s already won two of these – so he’s not overdue here (unlike director). His personality rubs people the wrong way, and he doesn’t always give good speeches. They may think Baumbach is overdue, or want to give more love to Parasite.

 

1. Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won (Parasite)

For Them: Parasite has become one of the most beloved films of the years – even with the Academy – and it’s right in the mix for winning Best Picture. Bong is in every race he’s nominated for – but perhaps this is the safer bet for him to win. The Academy doesn’t seem to have as much of a problem rewarding foreign screenplays as in other categories.

Against Them: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is the most awarded screenplay of the year. If Bong is winning International Feature, and maybe director AND picture, do they want to spread the wealth a little.

 

Analysis: I do think the top two are duking it out for the crown here – with number three as a dark horse spoiler.
Who Will Win: I think Parasite wins it – but Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is right there.
Who Should Win: I think Once Upon a Time in Hollywood should win it – but Parasite is right there.

Least of the Nominees: This was a stacked category, so to give a nod to 1917 struck me as incredibly lazy on the part of the writer’s branch. You can love the film, even admire the screenplay, and still acknowledge it isn’t the reason the film is as good as it is.

Should Have Been Nominated: Probably the one I have the most – but basically previous winner Jordan Peele could have looked good as a nominee for Us.

 

Animated Feature

5. Klaus

4. I Lost My Body

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

2. Missing Link

1. Toy Story 4,

Analysis: The fact that they overlooked Frozen II is probably the story of this category this year – it was always a longshot for them to go with three blockbuster sequels, but given when Frozen II came out, I figured it would get in. Can it hold another shock here? Will the fact that Toy Story 3 won this award years ago mean they don’t want to it give to the fourth installment? Will they want to give it to the three time nominated How to Train Your Dragon series, still looking for its first win. Will they finally give one to Laika for Missing Link – even if no one saw it. Do they go smaller – for a Netflix film I Lost My Body or Klaus? Perhaps we’re in for a shock.
Who Will Win: Having said all of that, but I really do think that Toy Story 4 will end up on top when all is said and done.
Who Should Win: As boring as it is, I’ll go with Toy Story 4 as the best of the bunch.

Least of the Nominees: I actually like all five of these – and I don’t really want to say that Klaus is my least favorite, even though it is, because I don’t want them to not nominate stuff like this in the future.

Should Have Been Nominated: My personal list had Ruben Brandt, Collector on it, which technically should have been nominated last year, although I couldn’t see it until this year. Out of what was eligible, I would have been torn between Frozen II and Klaus for my fifth spot.

 

International Feature Film

5. Corpus Christi (Poland)

4. Honeyland (Macedonia)

3. Les Miserables (France)

2. Pain and Glory (Spain)

1. Parasite (South Korea)

 

Analysis: In many other years, Pedro Almodovar’s Pain & Glory would win this one in a walk, even if he’s already won before. In other years, it has often been a race and you’re never quite sure. This year, however, it’s one of the easiest predictions of the night. The only thing that could derail Parasite is if they want to spread the wealth – something we haven’t seen derail Roma last year, or others films like this.
Who Will Win: I really cannot image Parasite not winning this one – you’re not winning the Oscar pool off of International Feature this year.
Who Should Win: I quite liked Pain & Glory, and hope Les Miserables does get some eyeballs now that it’s out in limited released – but come one, Parasite.

Least of the Nominees: I liked all four of the nominees that I have seen – but if I had to choose the weakest one, it would probably be Les Miserables.  

Should Have Been Nominated: I really don’t like the way they continue to do this with every country selecting one film – meaning something as acclaimed as Portrait of a Lady on Fire isn’t even eligible. Out of the shortlisted titles, I did really like Mati Diop’s Atlantics for Senegal, and like Portrait of a Lady on Fire, I’ve heard Beanpole is great.

 

Best Documentary

5. Edge of Democracy

4. The Cave

3. For Sama

2. Honeyland

1. American Factory

Analysis: When the nominees were announced, I was shocked that Apollo 11 wasn’t nominated – but that did subside after a while – this branch (stupidly) doesn’t seem to like archival docs, no matter how acclaimed, successful or great. All that means, this is a much wider open race than normal. I have a feeling that American Factory is your frontrunner – the two Syrian docs may split the vote, so Honeyland is probably the spoiler here – getting nominated for International Film helps there as well. 
Who Will Win: You can never really be sure here – they can go off board – but looking at all these, American Factory, really does feel like the easy choice – from the fact it’s the only nominee in English and set in America, to other facts, it seems like the easy choice.
Who Should Win: Keep in mind, I haven’t seen The Cave, which has its supporters, but I did name American Factory the best documentary of the year, so it gets my vote.

Least of the Nominees: If the documentary branch doesn’t like archival docs, I often don’t like essay docs, and as much as I admired The Edge of Democracy, I didn’t particularly like it.

Should Have Been Nominated: After all of that, I wasn’t as much of a fan of Apollo 11 as others, and many of the other shortlisted docs I saw I was lukewarm on as well. The one I really did like, and I would have liked to see in here was One Child Nation.

 

Best Cinematography

5. The Lighthouse – Jarin Blaschke

4. The Irishman – Rodrigo Prieto

3. Joker – Lawrence Sher

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Robert Richardson

1. 1917 – Roger Deakins

 

Analysis: It’s kind of amazing to me that Roger Deakins was a cinephile cause for a couple of decades for not winning, and now he’s to win twice in three years for 1917. I think this is one of the safest bets of the night.
Who Will Win: It’s not much of a competition – 1917 wins this one hands down, taking what was a fine race, and making it boring late in the game.
Who Should Win: My choice would be Robert Richardson for his great work in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – which shows off less than 1917, but is better. I also have a soft spot for The Lighthouse.

Least of the Nominees: Call me bitter if you want, but considering Michael Ballhaus wasn’t nominated for Taxi Driver, I don’t know why Lawrence Sher should get nominated for copying him with Joker.

Should Have Been Nominated: If long tracking shots are your thing, that they should have nominated Long Day’s Journey Into Night – which has a legitimate 59-minute shot in it, not a faked one, and its brilliant. Also not quite sure why Uncut Gems didn’t get more love for Darius Khondji’s work this season.

 

Best Costume Design

5. The Irishman

4. Jojo Rabbit

3. Joker

2. Little Women

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Analysis: It’s rare to have five Best Picture nominees in the same category – especially this one – but here we are. I think you can eliminate The Irishman, which is fine work, but not as showy. The same can be said for Jojo Rabbit – which is an exaggerated example of what is often done. Joker is also a version of what was done before. So that leaves Little Women vs. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – and the latter has the edge for me, as it’s got a larger cast, and more variety.
Who Will Win: Bet on Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – but don’t be shocked if Little Women takes it.
Who Should Win: My vote would go to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – easily, this time.

Least of the Nominees: Not quite sure how Joker got in – it’s basically the same purple suit as always, and the rest is just good, but not great.

Should Have Been Nominated: How the hell they did not nominate Ruth E. Carter for Dolemite is My Name – I’ll never know.

 

Film Editing

5. Jojo Rabbit

4. Joker

3. Parasite

2. The Irishman

1. Ford vs. Ferrari

 

Analysis: Oddly, Film Editing has become the craft category that most Oscar watchers, as until Birdman, it had been decades since a film won Best Picture, without an editing nom. Having said that, it isn’t always true that the winner of this category has anything to win with winning Best Picture – and they like action movies, and fast cutting. To that end, it’s Ford V Ferrari isn’t it? But Thelma Schoonmaker is a legend, and Parasite has the advantage of perhaps winning Best Picture. So go with one of those three.
Who Will Win: I have a feeling that Ford V Ferrari is the type of editing they go with more often than not.
Who Should Win: What Thelma Schoonmaker did on The Irishman is amazing, and deserving of a third Oscar for her – although I’d be fine with the expert, precision cutting on Parasite winning.

Least of the Nominees: Gonna be honest, not quite sure what it was about the editing on Jojo Rabbit that was worthy of a nomination.

Should Have Been Nominated: The best editing of the year was by the Safdies and Ronald Bronstein in Uncut Gems – and its kind of ridiculous, it wasn’t recognized.

 

Makeup and Hairstyling

5. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

4. 1917

3. Judy

2. Joker

1. Bombshell

Analysis: If they can go with makeup that turns one famous person into another famous person, then that’s what they go with. You can tell what one that is, correct? The clown has an outside shot though.
Who Will Win: I think Bombshell probably had this in the bag the moment the trailer showed Charlize as Megyn Kelly – and I’m not sure anything derailed it.
Who Should Win: That may have sounded condescending, but no, it wasn’t – Bombshell is the best here.

Least of the Nominees: I’m not quite sure what was great about Judy – it’s fine work, but Zellweger didn’t really look like Judy Garland, and the rest didn’t have to.

Should Have Been Nominated: I loved the work on both Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or Dolemite is My Name – either would have looked fine as nominees.

 

Original Score

5.Little Women – Alexandre Desplat

4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – John Williams

3. Marriage Story – Randy Newman

2. 1917 – Thomas Newman

1. Joker – Hildur Guonadottir

 

Analysis: The biggest stumbling block Guonadottir’s score had to winning may have been just getting nominated – the music branch is an insular club, not open to outsider (all of her fellow nominees have double digits’ nominations between score and song). Then again, Thomas Newman – on his 14^th nomination – still hasn’t won, and his work on 1917 really does propel that story, and it’s a film headed for perhaps a Best Picture win. You can argue for Randy Newman if you want, or a final win for Williams – but I think they’re further back – with two-time winner Desplat bringing up the rear.
Who Will Win: I really do think that Joker is going to take this prize – although 1917 is certainly in the race.
Who Should Win: The one area of Joker I have no complaints about is the score – it really is brilliant.

Least of the Nominees: I’m a little curious as to just how much new work John Williams did on Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – and if the new work is really what got him nominated.

Should Have Been Nominated: Where do I begin? How about Us – probably the best score of the year, although Uncut Gems or Midsommar could make that claim as well, maybe even Parasite.

 

Original Song

5. I’m Standing With You, Breakthrough

4. I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away, Toy Story 4

3. Stand Up, Harriet

2. I’m Gonna Love Me Again, Rocketman

1. Into the Unknown, Frozen 2

 

Analysis: Do they love Elton John enough to give him an Oscar for the most forgettable song in Rocketman? Do they want to make Cynthia Erivo an EGOT winner, by giving her an Award for Harriet? Do they give Randy Newman another Oscar for a Pixar film? Did they also need to lookup Breakthrough to remind themselves what it was when the nominations came out? How many voters have girls like me, so they’ve heard Into the Unknown roughly 1 billion times in the past three months?

Who Will Win: Normally, I would say Into the Unknown from Frozen II would be the easy winner – but it wasn’t that long ago that they won for the first film, and Elton John is a legend, and they can give Erivo a consolation prize for not winning actress. It’s probably closer than you think.
Who Should Win: Yes, I’ve heard it a billion times, but Into the Unknown was a wonderful song the first time you heard it.

Least of the Nominees: Quick, break into the chorus of I’m Standing with You from Breakthrough. I’ll wait.

Should Have Been Nominated: Out of the shortlisted songs, I would have liked to see A Glass of Soju from Parasite sneak in – or Glasgow from Wild Rose.

 

Production Design

5. The Irishman

4. Jojo Rabbit

3. 1917

2. Parasite

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Analysis: Much like Costume Design, I think the work on The Irishman is exceptional – but not flashy enough to win. Jojo Rabbit probably isn’t popular enough to win and the work on 1917 whizzes by too quickly. No, I think it’s down to Parasite vs. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – period brilliance vs. modern architecture as storytelling.
Who Will Win: I do believe it’s down to those two, and for the Academy period brilliance wins – so I think will Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
Who Should Win: The work on Parasite really is Art Direction as storytelling – and is absolutely brilliant on that level – and should win this.

Least of the Nominees: I think it’s fine work, but I’m not quite sure why 1917 got here.

Should Have Been Nominated: I just want to point out that I find it odd that they nominated Joker everywhere but here – and the Production Design is one of its best elements. And for Art Direction that whizzes by during long tracking shots, there is Sunset.

 

Sound Editing

5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker’

3. Joker

2. 1917

1. Ford v Ferrari

 

Analysis: They like LOUD – so I think it really is down to Ford V Ferrari and 1917 – the former has been the assumed winner since Telluride/TIFF, the latter is the late breaking entry that I’m not sure can break through here.
Who Will Win: I will stick with the presumed winner – Ford V Ferrari – although perhaps I’m not reading the tea leaves right here.
Who Should Win: I think they too often go for too loud, so I’ll say that I think the work on Once Upon a Time in Hollywood really is terrific.

Least of the Nominees: I think it’s excellent work – and yet I have to wonder what the sound editors Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is different from the other films.

Should Have Been Nominated: I always want smaller films to get in – and the sound work on The Lighthouse is amazing.

 

Sound Mixing

5. Ad Astra

4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3. Joker

2. 1917

1. Ford vs. Ferrari

Analysis: Same as Sound Editing really – they like LOUD, and Ford V Ferrari has been the presumed winner all season, only to be challenged by 1917 in the end.
Who Will Win: Once again, I’ll stick with Ford V Ferrari – once again, I worry that 1917 is going to do it.
Who Should Win: I’ll pick Ad Astra here – it’s fine work, and I’d love to see people be confused here.  

Least of the Nominees: I’ll throw out Joker – which really is fine work – but I think they could have picked something less safe.

Should Have Been Nominated: I think this is one of the places they could have increased the nomination count for Parasite – such amazing work.

 

Visual Effects

5. The Irishman

4. Avengers: Endgame

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

2. 1917

1. The Lion King

 

Analysis: Once again, I don’t think The Irishman has much of a shot – and neither do the blockbusters Avengers: Endgame or Star Wars, which both have a been there, done that feel to them. I don’t think 1917’s CGI is practically good – but it wouldn’t be the first time a Best Picture nominee (or Winner) won here because they liked it. Still, I kind of think that The Lion King has been in the lead all year – and I’m not sure anything has passed it.
Who Will Win: You can never really be sure here – but I think The Lion King probably wins this, as it’s the type of thing that can, and feels kind of original.
Who Should Win: I guess The Lion King, although I have a distinct lack of enthusiasm for this category this year.

Least of the Nominees: There are moments in 1917 that stand out as not very good at all – so that gets my vote.

Should Have Been Nominated: I didn’t like the movie that much, but I find it impossible not to think that the work on Alita: Battle Angel deserved a nom here.

 

Documentary (Short Subject)

5. Walk Run Cha-Cha

4. In the Absence

3. St. Louis Superman

2.Life Overtakes Me

1. Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone If You’re a Girl

 

Analysis: I have only seen four of these – and my thought is always that the one I haven’t seen will win. On that note St. Louis Superman could win – it may feel like the timeliest, and most American of all of the films. Life Overtakes is very good – and could perhaps tap into feeling about America’s own refugee problem – but it’s also quiet, reflective and could be seen as depressing. Also depressing is In the Absence, about the Sewol Ferry disaster in Korea – but it is devastating. I also quite enjoyed Walk, Run, Cha-Cha – but it may be too lightweight to win. I think the winner then could well be Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re Girl) – it’s an inspirational film, about women teachers in Afghanistan, who teach girls who otherwise would never even learn to read – and not just traditional subjects, but also how to skateboard. It’s a feel good film – but one that is still important, telling a story you otherwise wouldn’t know.
Who Will Win: I will guess Learning to Skate in a War Zone If You’re a Girl.  Be warned though – no one really has a clue what’s going to win in the shorts category.
Who Should Win: Out of the four I have seen, I really like In the Absence and Life Overtakes Me – but I do think that Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) hits just the right notes all the way through.

Least of the Nominees: Of the three I’ve seen, Walk, Run, Cha-Cha is a little but less than In the Absence of Life Overtakes Me.

 

Short Film (Animated)

5. Sister

4. Memorable

3. Daughter

2. Kitbull

1. Hair Love

Analysis: I’ve only seen four of the nominees – so I assume Daughter, the film I haven’t will win. Still, I find it hard to think that people who see it won’t be completely won over by Hair Love, and you cannot deny Disney/Pixar’s history here with Kitbull. Memorable also looks amazing. Sister is kind of the weak link here – but often I think that it ends up winning.
Who Will Win: I do think that Hair Love is going to win this thing – although, like I always says about the animated shorts, no one knows.
Who Should Win: Perhaps I’ll love Daughter when I see it – but I find it hard to root against Hair Love – which I adored.

Least of the Nominees: I wasn’t much of a fan of Sister – which tried to add some importance to a slight story, that I just didn’t get.

 

Short Film (Live Action)

5. Saria

4. The Neighbor’s Window

3. A Sister

2. Brotherhood

1. Nefta Football Club

 

Analysis: I’ve seen everything except Saria – which sounds exactly like the type of film that they award. Brotherhood does too however, and it is excellent. A Sister is for those who want a more straight forward, genre film, The Neighbor’s Window has some recognizable faces, and goes in surprising places, and then there’s Nefta Football Club.
Who Will Win: I think that perhaps Nefta Football Club has both the humor and the sense of importance that could take this.
Who Should Win: I quite like three of the four nominees I’ve seen – but I kind of like the simple, straight forward nature of A Sister – which works wonderfully well in 17 minutes.

Least of the Nominees: For me, Nefta Football Club tries too hard to be quirky and funny – AND about something important, and just never gets there.