Today, we look at the “other” picture categories – Foreign Language, Animated, Documentary, Documentary Short, Animated Short and Live Action Short. The shorts in particular can give you a leg up on those Oscar pools, as many people just blind guess what will win.
Best Animated Feature Film
Coraline
Odds: 10-1
For It: A surprise hit early in the year, the film was able to stave off a lot of competition for movies that made a lot more money, and came out later in the year. It has been mentioned on a lot of critic’s lists, and has even surprised the frontrunners with a couple of victories of its own. Director Henry Selick has been working for years in this field, and has yet to win an Oscar.
Against It: It really has been the third man in terms of all the animated awards this year – trailing behind Up and Fantastic Mr. Fox, which were both bigger critical hits than Coraline. Even if Coraline did make a good chunk of money at the beginning of the year, it is dwarfed by Up, who as the only film is this category also up for best picture, is really running away with this one.
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Odds: 5-1
For It: A huge critical hit this fall. Directed by Wes Anderson, who has been nominated by the Academy in the past, although never here, giving this film the award would be a way of giving a hip, younger filmmaker an Oscar, without having to give him one of the more major awards.
Against It: No matter how loved by the critics the film was, it didn’t do well at the box office, as families were put off by Anderson’s idiosyncrasies. Some will love it, but not as many as those who love Up, who as the only film here also in best picture, has to be seen as the frontrunner.
The Princess and the Frog
Odds: 15-1
For It: Disney animation is loved by the Academy, and yet since this award only started at the beginning of the decade, none of the Disney classics have ever won this award. Giving it the Oscar would be a nice welcome back to them.
Against It: Although the critics liked the film, they didn’t love it. And audiences felt the same way, as the film barely squeaking by the $100 million mark is slightly disappointing. The film, although good, is in no way equal to Disney’s best films of the past.
The Secret of Kells
Odds: 20-1
For It: A surprise nominee (I would argue the biggest surprise of nomination day), the film is obviously well loved by those who have seen it, since it was able to get in with almost no fanfare, and no real release for the film. Those tired of computer animation, but who don’t want to embrace Disney, could wind up here.
Against It: The challenge will be to get enough people to actually watch the film, as it does work on the honor system. Considering Up got in for best picture, I have to wonder how many people will even bother to stick this one in the DVD player before filling out their ballot. Surprise nominees, with no box office to speak of, never really win.
Up
Odds: Even
For It: The film became only the second animated film in history to score a Best Picture nomination, which marks this as the definite frontrunner here. Pixar is beloved by the Academy – winning this award for Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille and Wall-E. This would make it a nice round 5.
Against It: Perhaps some are getting sick of Pixar winning this every year, and will look somewhere else. The film only did get into best picture because there were 10 slots, not because it is more beloved than the other Pixar films.
Will Win: I think Up has this one locked up, as it is both the critical and commercial champ of this bunch – and that Best Picture nominations pretty much makes that assured.
Should Win: I am torn here, as I loved Up almost as much as my favorite Pixar movies, while at the same time, was completely enamored by Anderson’s charming Fox. I’d give the edge to Up, but not by much.
Least of the Nominees: I hate to pick on the little guy here, and rain on a feel good story, but I don’t really think The Secret of Kells, which is a charmingly old fashioned movie, is quite as good as the others.
Documentary (Feature)
Burma VJ
Odds: 10-1
For It: A remarkable film made up almost entirely of footage captured by undercover reporters shooting the protests in Burma against the repressive government. The footage is amazing, and the only way we would get to know what is happening the country. The film is surprising inspiring as well.
Against It: Not a typical documentary in the way the Academy likes – that is talking heads combined with archive footage. I cannot think of another recent documentary in this vein that was able to pull off a win here.
The Cove
Odds: 2-1
For It: Undoubtedly the most talked about documentary of the year, The Cove has left audiences shaken every since its premiere at Sundance last January. It’s a powerful and exciting movie, about exposing the truth behind the dolphin slaughter in Japan, and its politics are in the right place for the Academy.
Against It: Despite having more ink devoted to it than any doc of the year, it didn’t really translate into mass commercial success – as the film grossed under $1 million (which still does place it second). It could be too tough to watch for some members.
Food, Inc.
Odds: 5-1
For It: The highest grossing doc nominated by a mile, Food Inc. exposes the corruption involved in our food production, and how giant corporations are ruining the food we eat, and making us fat in order to make money. Audience hits for docs are rare, and although this is nowhere near the scale of even An Inconvenient Truth, it’s closer than anything else nominated.
Against It: If you had done any sort of reading about this issue before watching the documentary, then nothing here came as much of a surprise. Despite raking up a number of high profile nominations this awards season, it never really did WIN anything.
The Most Dangerous Man in America
Odds: 15-1
For It: The movie about a CIA agent who places his morality over his job, and works to expose the secrets of the Vietnam era will likely strike a chord with old fashioned liberals in the Academy.
Against It: The film has been barely been released, and no one is really talking about it that much. The Vietnam War was 40 years ago now, so they may want to give the award to something more timely.
Which Way Home
Odds: 6-1
For It: An inspiring, heartbreaking story about children from South America who try and make the journey by themselves into America to make a better life for themselves. The filmmakers get the story right from the mouths of the kids as they make the journey – and their stories are tragic, but the kids are tremendously sympathetic.
Against It: I hate to say it, but with the economy in the crapper, and two wars still waging on, illegal immigration kind of feels like yesterday’s news (right, Lou Dobbs?). The film does not have the devastating impact of The Cove, and the fact the film has not really had a theatrical release will hurt it.
Who Will Win: The Cove I think should hold onto the award it’s been the frontrunner for all year.
Who Should Win: Personally, I think that this was a weak year for docs, but they pretty much picked the best of the bunch. I’ll go with The Cove, although I quite liked Burma VJ and The Most Dangerous Man in America as well.
Least of the Nominees: For me, while I thought Which Way Home tried very hard - and was an honorable effort, it ranks just a notch below the others.
Best Foreign Language Film
Ajami (Israel)
Odds: 10-1
For It: Not to sound crass or anything, but there are a lot of Jewish people in the Academy, so a film from Israel could be what they are looking for here. This is the third nomination in row from that country (following Beaufort and Waltz with Bashir) and the 9th overall, and yet they have never won. Those who have seen it have a lot of nice things to say about it.
Against It: The film doesn’t have the buzz around it that some of the others films have, and while it is doing respectable business in limited release; it really hasn’t not ignited too many critical praise. It apparently contains quite a bit of violence, which is off putting to some in Academy.
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
Odds: 20-1
For It: To some, this has been the year of female directors, and Peru’s entry in this race is the only one directed by a woman. Its story of the effects of sexual violence through the generation could certainly touch many women in the Academy.
Against It: It still doesn’t have a North American distribution deal in place. It is a film heavy on symbolism, and light on plot and that usually does not go over well with the Academy. Peru has never even been nominated before this year, let alone won.
A Prophet (France)
Odds: 4-1
For It: One of the most talked films of all of 2009, the film has garnered constant praise and awards since its debut at Cannes where it won the Grand Prize of the Jury. The film is a dizzying, violent 2 and half hour prison drama, with political overtures. It is also far and away the most entertaining film of the bunch. France has a good track record of winning this award.
Against It: Could it be too violent for the more conservative Academy members? By holding off releasing the film until 2010, the North America distributer cost itself some buzz, and awards, that the film would have won had it been released earlier.
The Secret in Their Eyes (Argentina)
Odds: 6-1
For It: Probably the closest thing we have to a film in the competition that feels like an American film, just with another language spoken instead of English. A well made thriller, stretching over 25 years, the film is well made, well acted and has a shocking ending. Although the film doesn’t have the buzz of the two frontrunners that often doesn’t matter to the Academy (just look at last year’s winner).
Against It: But buzz does help a film and this one so far doesn’t have much. It will be released theatrically later this year, but by not doing it sooner, the film has cost itself some free publicity. A good thriller, but does it carry the thematic weight the Academy likes to see?
The White Ribbon (Germany)
Odds: 3-1
For It: Michael Haneke is one of the most talked about filmmakers in the world, and The White Ribbon has garnered praise and awards all year, since it won the top prize (beating A Prophet) at the Cannes film festival earlier this year. The film isn’t as shocking violent as some of Haneke’s past works, and really does feel like a classic, with its black and white photography, and thematic weight.
Against It: It could be too slow moving for many in the Academy, who like films that are more easily understood. It could frustrate people who want everything wrapped up in a nice, neat little package by the end of the movie – something Haneke refuses to do in all of his films.
Who Will Win: It’s tough to call, since Academy members need to prove they have seen all five films at an Academy screening, and request a separate ballot, meaning that far few than 6,000 votes are cast. I’ll go with The White Ribbon, but I could easily see A Prophet pulling off a minor upset, or The Secret of Their Eyes pulling off a major one.
Should Win: Both The White Ribbon and A Prophet are masterpieces – two of the very best films of the year, and better than almost anything in the Best Picture category. I go back and forth on this one every day. At the moment though, I’m going with A Prophet.
Least of the Nominees: Since I have not seen Ajami, I cannot really say. But I really didn’t like The Milk of Sorrow, which didn’t ever come together for me as movie.
Documentary (Short Subject)
China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
Odds: 3-1
For It: This is the only movie I have seen out there actually try to promote itself for the win – positioning it as a David vs. Goliath story as the Chinese government has been trying to stop the film from screening, and bad mouthing it non-stop. And although this may be crass to say, it doesn’t hurt the film that it is about the after effects of an earthquake, which is very much on everybody’s mind with Haiti.
Against It: The film itself was, to me anyway, only marginal. Yes, it is an emotional story about grieving parents reaching out to their government for answers. But it established its basic setup early, and then had nowhere to build to. The overall effect was a little lacking for me.
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
Odds: 7-1
For It: Since I haven’t had a chance to see this one, I’m not really sure. It sounds like an emotional story about a former politician, Booth Gardner, coming out in support of the assisted suicide legislation in Washington State. It could strike a chord with some.
Against It: The issue of assisted suicide is still extremely divisive – even among good liberals like Academy members. The subject matter could be off putting – and the few reviews I have seen have not been overly great.
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Odds: 4-1
For It: This is certainly the most immediately relevant movie to Americans nominated in this category. The movie follows a group of workers during the final weeks and days leading up to the closing on the GM plant, which is the backbone of their hometown. With so many closures coming down around the country, this is definitely relevant.
Against It: But will it strike a chord with Oscar voters? Like China’s Unnatural Disaster, to me this film started off strong, and then didn’t go very far with its actual premise. Yes, the movie is emotional, but will the loss of the jobs of blue collar workers really appeal to Oscar members?
Music by Prudence
Odds: 6-1
For It: They have gone for inspirational documentaries before in this category (just last year for example), and from the sounds of it, this story about Zimbabwe singer Prudence Mabhena certainly qualifies as that.
Against It: I have heard very little about this film from anyone. One thinks that they may simply be happy with the nomination. Is HBO going to support this over their other films in the competition?
Rabbit à la Berlin
Odds: 5-1
For It: This one sounds like a can’t miss, strange little film. It is the untold story of rabbits who literally lived between the Berlin Walls for all the years they were up. It was the safest place for them. If the film captures some sort of weird Watership Down, or March of the Penguins, feel, it could surprise.
Against It: It has not been widely seen here from what I understand (I certainly couldn’t find it). And really a documentary about bunnies? I don’t see it.
What Will Win: More often than not, this is a crapshoot, where you simply have to guess. My guess is China’s Unnatural Disaster, because they actually appear to want it, and it will strike a chord.
What Should Win: Since I’ve only seen two of the nominees this is impossible to say. Out of the two, I prefer The Last Truck – but not by much.
Least of the Nominees: Again, since I’ve only had the chance to see two of the nominees (why they don’t do what the other shorts do and make themselves available for download on iTunes I have no idea). Out of the two I have seen, I liked China’s Unnatural Disaster just a little bit less.
Short Film (Animated)
French Roast
Odds: 10-1
For It: This is a delightful and funny little movie about the difference between the rich and the poor. It is cleverly animated, and has a sweet, if ultimately predictable, conclusion.
Against It: I think there are other films in this vein nominated this year that do things better than this one. Out of all of the nominees, this was the least surprising of them all.
Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty
Odds: 5-1
For It: An utterly hilarious litter movie about an old Irish grandmother telling her grandson the story of sleeping beauty, with her own demented take on it. It should appeal to the older Academy members, who may relate to Granny O’Grimm a little more than they want to admit. The movie is hilarious right through the end credits.
Against It: The shortest of the nominees at just six minutes, the movie runs the risk of not having the same weight or remembrance factor of the other nominees.
The Lady and the Reaper
Odds: 15-1
For It: The movie is fast moving and fun, as the Grim Reaper and a handsome doctor fight for the life of an old woman. It has the feel of one of those old fashioned cartoons like Bugs Bunny.
Against It: Which is a problem, because it definitely has a been there, done that feel to it. It also repeats itself, and at just 8 minutes long, that is never a good sign.
Logorama
Odds: 4-1
For It: The most original film of the bunch, this one uses all corporate logos and mascots to tell it’s violent little crime drama, which is hilarious, well animated, original and at the same time it has a point to make about our modern society – something that really cannot be said about the other nominees.
Against It: But it is very violent for an animated movie (although it is cartoon violence), and it also contains a hell of a lot of swearing. These two factors could turn off a lot of older voters – who maybe the only ones who actually vote for this award.
A Matter of Loaf and Death
Odds: 3-1
For It: The sixth outing for Wallace and Gromit, four of the other outings have been nominated for an Oscar, and three of the them have won, so the Academy obviously loves these two characters. The movie is fun and funny, with loving homages to all sorts of classic movies. The longest nominee, at nearly 30 minutes, it will undoubtedly be remembered by the Academy.
Against It: Perhaps the fact that three of the other films have already won director Nick Park an Oscar will make the voters go for something else. After all, they moved these two to features last time and won, so going back to shorts seems like a step backwards.
Who Will Win: I think that Wallace and Gromit will capture their fourth Oscar this time out, but they do face some stiff competition.
Who Should Win: I thought Logorama was far and away the most original, daring and entertaining film of the bunch.
Least of the Nominees: The Lady and the Reaper just didn’t rise to the same level as the rest of these did. I am a little confused why the Academy overlooked Pixar’s delightful Partly Cloudy, which while is far from their best short, is still better than this one.
Short Film (Live Action)
The Door
Odds: 3-1
For It: If, unlike me, you were not able to guess the finale of this movie from early on, I imagine that the film would pack an emotional wallop. It certainly does try very hard to tug on your heartstrings. It is also a well made and well acted little movie.
Against It: Personally, I found the film frustrating, as it tried so hard to keep its rather obvious secrets.
Instead of Abracadabra
Odds: 5-1
For It: An enjoyable, light comedy – something the other nominees are not – this film will likely leave most people smiling, as it is an enjoyable little farce.
Against It: It could be seen as too lightweight by the Academy, who likes their winners – even in this category – to carry a little more weight.
Kavi
Odds: 6-1
For It: Like The Door, this one tries very hard to tug at your heartstrings, and could very well succeed for some viewers. Again, like The Door, it is the only film that seems to be about something “important”.
Against It: The Door is a better film overall, so people looking for something weighty and dramatic, will most likely go there.
Miracle Fish
Odds: 7-1
For It: A great short film, short on story, but long on mood and tone, with a rug pulling ending that actually works quite well.
Against It: They don’t like movies more about tone than story.
The New Tenants
Odds: 4-1
For It: Recognizable actors in a wonderful black comedy where the bodies keep piling up. Six Shooter won this award a few years ago, so they obviously don’t mind blood and swearing.
Against It: But there is a lot of both, which will put off some members. As will the surrealistic ending. As promising as he is, the director is no Martin McDonagh.
Who Will Win: The Door is emotional AND has an “important” subject matter. I think it takes it.
Who Should Win: Miracle Fish was far and away my favorite.
Least of the Nominees: I wasn’t a fan of either The Door or Kavi, but I think The Door is a much better made film, so I’ll say Kavi.
Best Animated Feature Film
CoralineOdds: 10-1
For It: A surprise hit early in the year, the film was able to stave off a lot of competition for movies that made a lot more money, and came out later in the year. It has been mentioned on a lot of critic’s lists, and has even surprised the frontrunners with a couple of victories of its own. Director Henry Selick has been working for years in this field, and has yet to win an Oscar.
Against It: It really has been the third man in terms of all the animated awards this year – trailing behind Up and Fantastic Mr. Fox, which were both bigger critical hits than Coraline. Even if Coraline did make a good chunk of money at the beginning of the year, it is dwarfed by Up, who as the only film is this category also up for best picture, is really running away with this one.
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Odds: 5-1
For It: A huge critical hit this fall. Directed by Wes Anderson, who has been nominated by the Academy in the past, although never here, giving this film the award would be a way of giving a hip, younger filmmaker an Oscar, without having to give him one of the more major awards.
Against It: No matter how loved by the critics the film was, it didn’t do well at the box office, as families were put off by Anderson’s idiosyncrasies. Some will love it, but not as many as those who love Up, who as the only film here also in best picture, has to be seen as the frontrunner.
The Princess and the Frog
Odds: 15-1
For It: Disney animation is loved by the Academy, and yet since this award only started at the beginning of the decade, none of the Disney classics have ever won this award. Giving it the Oscar would be a nice welcome back to them.
Against It: Although the critics liked the film, they didn’t love it. And audiences felt the same way, as the film barely squeaking by the $100 million mark is slightly disappointing. The film, although good, is in no way equal to Disney’s best films of the past.
The Secret of Kells
Odds: 20-1
For It: A surprise nominee (I would argue the biggest surprise of nomination day), the film is obviously well loved by those who have seen it, since it was able to get in with almost no fanfare, and no real release for the film. Those tired of computer animation, but who don’t want to embrace Disney, could wind up here.
Against It: The challenge will be to get enough people to actually watch the film, as it does work on the honor system. Considering Up got in for best picture, I have to wonder how many people will even bother to stick this one in the DVD player before filling out their ballot. Surprise nominees, with no box office to speak of, never really win.
Up
Odds: Even
For It: The film became only the second animated film in history to score a Best Picture nomination, which marks this as the definite frontrunner here. Pixar is beloved by the Academy – winning this award for Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille and Wall-E. This would make it a nice round 5.
Against It: Perhaps some are getting sick of Pixar winning this every year, and will look somewhere else. The film only did get into best picture because there were 10 slots, not because it is more beloved than the other Pixar films.
Will Win: I think Up has this one locked up, as it is both the critical and commercial champ of this bunch – and that Best Picture nominations pretty much makes that assured.
Should Win: I am torn here, as I loved Up almost as much as my favorite Pixar movies, while at the same time, was completely enamored by Anderson’s charming Fox. I’d give the edge to Up, but not by much.
Least of the Nominees: I hate to pick on the little guy here, and rain on a feel good story, but I don’t really think The Secret of Kells, which is a charmingly old fashioned movie, is quite as good as the others.
Documentary (Feature)
Burma VJOdds: 10-1
For It: A remarkable film made up almost entirely of footage captured by undercover reporters shooting the protests in Burma against the repressive government. The footage is amazing, and the only way we would get to know what is happening the country. The film is surprising inspiring as well.
Against It: Not a typical documentary in the way the Academy likes – that is talking heads combined with archive footage. I cannot think of another recent documentary in this vein that was able to pull off a win here.
The Cove
Odds: 2-1
For It: Undoubtedly the most talked about documentary of the year, The Cove has left audiences shaken every since its premiere at Sundance last January. It’s a powerful and exciting movie, about exposing the truth behind the dolphin slaughter in Japan, and its politics are in the right place for the Academy.
Against It: Despite having more ink devoted to it than any doc of the year, it didn’t really translate into mass commercial success – as the film grossed under $1 million (which still does place it second). It could be too tough to watch for some members.
Food, Inc.
Odds: 5-1
For It: The highest grossing doc nominated by a mile, Food Inc. exposes the corruption involved in our food production, and how giant corporations are ruining the food we eat, and making us fat in order to make money. Audience hits for docs are rare, and although this is nowhere near the scale of even An Inconvenient Truth, it’s closer than anything else nominated.
Against It: If you had done any sort of reading about this issue before watching the documentary, then nothing here came as much of a surprise. Despite raking up a number of high profile nominations this awards season, it never really did WIN anything.
The Most Dangerous Man in America
Odds: 15-1
For It: The movie about a CIA agent who places his morality over his job, and works to expose the secrets of the Vietnam era will likely strike a chord with old fashioned liberals in the Academy.
Against It: The film has been barely been released, and no one is really talking about it that much. The Vietnam War was 40 years ago now, so they may want to give the award to something more timely.
Which Way Home
Odds: 6-1
For It: An inspiring, heartbreaking story about children from South America who try and make the journey by themselves into America to make a better life for themselves. The filmmakers get the story right from the mouths of the kids as they make the journey – and their stories are tragic, but the kids are tremendously sympathetic.
Against It: I hate to say it, but with the economy in the crapper, and two wars still waging on, illegal immigration kind of feels like yesterday’s news (right, Lou Dobbs?). The film does not have the devastating impact of The Cove, and the fact the film has not really had a theatrical release will hurt it.
Who Will Win: The Cove I think should hold onto the award it’s been the frontrunner for all year.
Who Should Win: Personally, I think that this was a weak year for docs, but they pretty much picked the best of the bunch. I’ll go with The Cove, although I quite liked Burma VJ and The Most Dangerous Man in America as well.
Least of the Nominees: For me, while I thought Which Way Home tried very hard - and was an honorable effort, it ranks just a notch below the others.
Best Foreign Language Film
Ajami (Israel)Odds: 10-1
For It: Not to sound crass or anything, but there are a lot of Jewish people in the Academy, so a film from Israel could be what they are looking for here. This is the third nomination in row from that country (following Beaufort and Waltz with Bashir) and the 9th overall, and yet they have never won. Those who have seen it have a lot of nice things to say about it.
Against It: The film doesn’t have the buzz around it that some of the others films have, and while it is doing respectable business in limited release; it really hasn’t not ignited too many critical praise. It apparently contains quite a bit of violence, which is off putting to some in Academy.
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
Odds: 20-1
For It: To some, this has been the year of female directors, and Peru’s entry in this race is the only one directed by a woman. Its story of the effects of sexual violence through the generation could certainly touch many women in the Academy.
Against It: It still doesn’t have a North American distribution deal in place. It is a film heavy on symbolism, and light on plot and that usually does not go over well with the Academy. Peru has never even been nominated before this year, let alone won.
A Prophet (France)
Odds: 4-1
For It: One of the most talked films of all of 2009, the film has garnered constant praise and awards since its debut at Cannes where it won the Grand Prize of the Jury. The film is a dizzying, violent 2 and half hour prison drama, with political overtures. It is also far and away the most entertaining film of the bunch. France has a good track record of winning this award.
Against It: Could it be too violent for the more conservative Academy members? By holding off releasing the film until 2010, the North America distributer cost itself some buzz, and awards, that the film would have won had it been released earlier.
The Secret in Their Eyes (Argentina)
Odds: 6-1
For It: Probably the closest thing we have to a film in the competition that feels like an American film, just with another language spoken instead of English. A well made thriller, stretching over 25 years, the film is well made, well acted and has a shocking ending. Although the film doesn’t have the buzz of the two frontrunners that often doesn’t matter to the Academy (just look at last year’s winner).
Against It: But buzz does help a film and this one so far doesn’t have much. It will be released theatrically later this year, but by not doing it sooner, the film has cost itself some free publicity. A good thriller, but does it carry the thematic weight the Academy likes to see?
The White Ribbon (Germany)
Odds: 3-1
For It: Michael Haneke is one of the most talked about filmmakers in the world, and The White Ribbon has garnered praise and awards all year, since it won the top prize (beating A Prophet) at the Cannes film festival earlier this year. The film isn’t as shocking violent as some of Haneke’s past works, and really does feel like a classic, with its black and white photography, and thematic weight.
Against It: It could be too slow moving for many in the Academy, who like films that are more easily understood. It could frustrate people who want everything wrapped up in a nice, neat little package by the end of the movie – something Haneke refuses to do in all of his films.
Who Will Win: It’s tough to call, since Academy members need to prove they have seen all five films at an Academy screening, and request a separate ballot, meaning that far few than 6,000 votes are cast. I’ll go with The White Ribbon, but I could easily see A Prophet pulling off a minor upset, or The Secret of Their Eyes pulling off a major one.
Should Win: Both The White Ribbon and A Prophet are masterpieces – two of the very best films of the year, and better than almost anything in the Best Picture category. I go back and forth on this one every day. At the moment though, I’m going with A Prophet.
Least of the Nominees: Since I have not seen Ajami, I cannot really say. But I really didn’t like The Milk of Sorrow, which didn’t ever come together for me as movie.
Documentary (Short Subject)
China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan ProvinceOdds: 3-1
For It: This is the only movie I have seen out there actually try to promote itself for the win – positioning it as a David vs. Goliath story as the Chinese government has been trying to stop the film from screening, and bad mouthing it non-stop. And although this may be crass to say, it doesn’t hurt the film that it is about the after effects of an earthquake, which is very much on everybody’s mind with Haiti.
Against It: The film itself was, to me anyway, only marginal. Yes, it is an emotional story about grieving parents reaching out to their government for answers. But it established its basic setup early, and then had nowhere to build to. The overall effect was a little lacking for me.
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
Odds: 7-1
For It: Since I haven’t had a chance to see this one, I’m not really sure. It sounds like an emotional story about a former politician, Booth Gardner, coming out in support of the assisted suicide legislation in Washington State. It could strike a chord with some.
Against It: The issue of assisted suicide is still extremely divisive – even among good liberals like Academy members. The subject matter could be off putting – and the few reviews I have seen have not been overly great.
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Odds: 4-1
For It: This is certainly the most immediately relevant movie to Americans nominated in this category. The movie follows a group of workers during the final weeks and days leading up to the closing on the GM plant, which is the backbone of their hometown. With so many closures coming down around the country, this is definitely relevant.
Against It: But will it strike a chord with Oscar voters? Like China’s Unnatural Disaster, to me this film started off strong, and then didn’t go very far with its actual premise. Yes, the movie is emotional, but will the loss of the jobs of blue collar workers really appeal to Oscar members?
Music by Prudence
Odds: 6-1
For It: They have gone for inspirational documentaries before in this category (just last year for example), and from the sounds of it, this story about Zimbabwe singer Prudence Mabhena certainly qualifies as that.
Against It: I have heard very little about this film from anyone. One thinks that they may simply be happy with the nomination. Is HBO going to support this over their other films in the competition?
Rabbit à la Berlin
Odds: 5-1
For It: This one sounds like a can’t miss, strange little film. It is the untold story of rabbits who literally lived between the Berlin Walls for all the years they were up. It was the safest place for them. If the film captures some sort of weird Watership Down, or March of the Penguins, feel, it could surprise.
Against It: It has not been widely seen here from what I understand (I certainly couldn’t find it). And really a documentary about bunnies? I don’t see it.
What Will Win: More often than not, this is a crapshoot, where you simply have to guess. My guess is China’s Unnatural Disaster, because they actually appear to want it, and it will strike a chord.
What Should Win: Since I’ve only seen two of the nominees this is impossible to say. Out of the two, I prefer The Last Truck – but not by much.
Least of the Nominees: Again, since I’ve only had the chance to see two of the nominees (why they don’t do what the other shorts do and make themselves available for download on iTunes I have no idea). Out of the two I have seen, I liked China’s Unnatural Disaster just a little bit less.
Short Film (Animated)
French RoastOdds: 10-1
For It: This is a delightful and funny little movie about the difference between the rich and the poor. It is cleverly animated, and has a sweet, if ultimately predictable, conclusion.
Against It: I think there are other films in this vein nominated this year that do things better than this one. Out of all of the nominees, this was the least surprising of them all.
Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty
Odds: 5-1
For It: An utterly hilarious litter movie about an old Irish grandmother telling her grandson the story of sleeping beauty, with her own demented take on it. It should appeal to the older Academy members, who may relate to Granny O’Grimm a little more than they want to admit. The movie is hilarious right through the end credits.
Against It: The shortest of the nominees at just six minutes, the movie runs the risk of not having the same weight or remembrance factor of the other nominees.
The Lady and the Reaper
Odds: 15-1
For It: The movie is fast moving and fun, as the Grim Reaper and a handsome doctor fight for the life of an old woman. It has the feel of one of those old fashioned cartoons like Bugs Bunny.
Against It: Which is a problem, because it definitely has a been there, done that feel to it. It also repeats itself, and at just 8 minutes long, that is never a good sign.
Logorama
Odds: 4-1
For It: The most original film of the bunch, this one uses all corporate logos and mascots to tell it’s violent little crime drama, which is hilarious, well animated, original and at the same time it has a point to make about our modern society – something that really cannot be said about the other nominees.
Against It: But it is very violent for an animated movie (although it is cartoon violence), and it also contains a hell of a lot of swearing. These two factors could turn off a lot of older voters – who maybe the only ones who actually vote for this award.
A Matter of Loaf and Death
Odds: 3-1
For It: The sixth outing for Wallace and Gromit, four of the other outings have been nominated for an Oscar, and three of the them have won, so the Academy obviously loves these two characters. The movie is fun and funny, with loving homages to all sorts of classic movies. The longest nominee, at nearly 30 minutes, it will undoubtedly be remembered by the Academy.
Against It: Perhaps the fact that three of the other films have already won director Nick Park an Oscar will make the voters go for something else. After all, they moved these two to features last time and won, so going back to shorts seems like a step backwards.
Who Will Win: I think that Wallace and Gromit will capture their fourth Oscar this time out, but they do face some stiff competition.
Who Should Win: I thought Logorama was far and away the most original, daring and entertaining film of the bunch.
Least of the Nominees: The Lady and the Reaper just didn’t rise to the same level as the rest of these did. I am a little confused why the Academy overlooked Pixar’s delightful Partly Cloudy, which while is far from their best short, is still better than this one.
Short Film (Live Action)
The DoorOdds: 3-1
For It: If, unlike me, you were not able to guess the finale of this movie from early on, I imagine that the film would pack an emotional wallop. It certainly does try very hard to tug on your heartstrings. It is also a well made and well acted little movie.
Against It: Personally, I found the film frustrating, as it tried so hard to keep its rather obvious secrets.
Instead of Abracadabra
Odds: 5-1
For It: An enjoyable, light comedy – something the other nominees are not – this film will likely leave most people smiling, as it is an enjoyable little farce.
Against It: It could be seen as too lightweight by the Academy, who likes their winners – even in this category – to carry a little more weight.
Kavi
Odds: 6-1
For It: Like The Door, this one tries very hard to tug at your heartstrings, and could very well succeed for some viewers. Again, like The Door, it is the only film that seems to be about something “important”.
Against It: The Door is a better film overall, so people looking for something weighty and dramatic, will most likely go there.
Miracle Fish
Odds: 7-1
For It: A great short film, short on story, but long on mood and tone, with a rug pulling ending that actually works quite well.
Against It: They don’t like movies more about tone than story.
The New Tenants
Odds: 4-1
For It: Recognizable actors in a wonderful black comedy where the bodies keep piling up. Six Shooter won this award a few years ago, so they obviously don’t mind blood and swearing.
Against It: But there is a lot of both, which will put off some members. As will the surrealistic ending. As promising as he is, the director is no Martin McDonagh.
Who Will Win: The Door is emotional AND has an “important” subject matter. I think it takes it.
Who Should Win: Miracle Fish was far and away my favorite.
Least of the Nominees: I wasn’t a fan of either The Door or Kavi, but I think The Door is a much better made film, so I’ll say Kavi.
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