Over the next four days, I will do seven posts listing the odds on every nominee in every category. Today I will start with the “aural” technical awards, then the “visual” technical awards. The aural ones represent everything we hear in the course of the movie. This year there are some tight races. If you want to win your office Oscar pool, you have to pay attention here.
Best Music (Original Score)
Avatar – James Horner
Odds: 5-1
For It: The last time Horner teamed up with James Cameron, the result was the iconic Titanic score, which won him an Oscar. His work on Avatar is very strong, and he hits the right rising crescendo moments in the big action scenes that the Academy loves to reward. If Avatar is looking to sweep, this could be a signifier that it is going to happen. Horner has a long track record with Oscar, stretching back more than 20 years, and he is on his 10th nomination.
Against It: The music IS NOT anywhere near as iconic or instantly recognizable as Titanic was. He won two for Titanic (also song), so there is no need to reward him again. Plus, he faces some very stiff competition here. He didn’t even win this at the Globes, which was an Avatar love fest. The score has been criticized by some who here a lot of Horner’s previous work mixed throughout.
Fantastic Mr. Fox – Alexandre Desplat
Odds: 10-1
For It: Desplat has become an Academy favorite in recent years – this is his third nomination in 4 years, but he has yet to actually win the top prize. He had a very busy 2009 – also composing well regarded scores for Coco Avant Chanel, Cheri, A Prophet, Julie & Julia and Twilight: New Moon. He was one of the best composers out there, and his work on Fantastic Mr. Fox ranks among his best – playful and memorable throughout. For some, it will be his time.
Against It: But he has four new scores coming out in 2010, for movies more suited to the Academy’s tastes. Yes, the music here is brilliant and playful, but since when do they go for that? I doubt that this really is Desplat’s year.
The Hurt Locker – Marco Beltrami & Buck Sanders
Odds: 9-1
For It: The movie is on a role, and looking to win as many Oscars as possible. The music here contributes the complex sound scapes created in the movie. Beltrami broke through 2 years ago with his score for 3:10 to Yuma, so he’s now a member of the club, and his frequent collaborator (although this is the first time they have shared credit), Sanders is an up and comer.
Against It: Wasn’t pretty much everyone surprised by this nomination? Can you tell me what the score even sounds like at all without listening to it by itself? The score brilliantly fit the movie – but I doubt it is memorable enough to actually win this prize.
Sherlock Holmes – Hans Zimmer
Odds: 8-1
For It: Zimmer is an old hat at this game by now – getting his first of 8 Oscar nominations more than 20 years ago. He hasn’t been nominated in a while (his last was for Gladiator in 2000), but he is well respected. The Sherlock Holmes score is well suited to the material, and really noticeable, which always helps.
Against It: He has won before, so there is no real rush to reward him again. It is not always the case, but most of the time they do like to give the Score Oscar to a movie they really liked, and considering the lack of nominations for this movie, this isn’t one.
Up – Michael Giacchino
Odds: Even
For It: Giacchino has been doing some great work for years now, although it took until 2007’s Ratatouille for the Academy to notice (I still remember the outrage when his brilliant work for The Incredibles wasn’t nominated in 2004). Now on his second nomination, his time has come. It helps that his score is the most recognizable of the bunch – and hits all the right notes in this movie from sadness to adventure. And his highly praised work on this year’s Star Trek won’t hurt either.
Against It: Not much, except they have never given the score Oscar to a film by Pixar, no matter how brilliant the work is.
Who Will Win: I think Giacchino’s Up really has this one sewn up.
Who Should Win: Up is the best score of the year – hands down.
Least of the Nominees: It infuriates me that the Academy ignored one Carter Burwell score (A Serious Man) and disqualified another (Where the Wild Things Are) for something as formulaic as Zimmer’s score for Sherlock Holmes.
Best Music (Original Song)
Crazy Heart – The Weary Kind
Odds: 2-1
For It: The song is really a part of the movie, as we hear snippets of it throughout as Jeff Bridges character writes it. When we finally hear the entire song, it is a pure country classic full of sadness and beauty. A true stunner of the song and the only one here that works outside of its movie.
Against It: The Academy often likes to go for songs from animated films, or musicals, and both are nominated here. The choices they have made are often rather suspect.
Nine - Take it All
Odds: 6-1
For It: The emotional high point of the film is this new song for the classic musical, a burlesque inspired number where Marion Cottilard gets out all her rage on her husband. It is the closest thing this movie has to a show stopper.
Against It: All throughout the season, the song was ignored for the more upbeat Cinema Italiano from the movie (for reasons that remain a mystery to me). The Academy obviously didn’t respond too much to the number – or else Cottilard would have been nominated instead of Cruz (which she should have been!).
Paris 36 - Loin de Paname
Odds: 25-1
For It: They have gone for songs from Foreign Language films a few times in the last decade. This old school movie is like a warm blanket to older members of the Academy – who often vote en masse.
Against It: Quick, sing a few bars from the song? Can’t do it, can you? Did anyone see this movie?
The Princess and the Frog - Almost There
Odds: 5-1
For It: An inspiring song, sung by the movie heroine talking about her dreams, and how she is so close to achieving them. For a few minutes anyway, the film resembled a true Disney classic.
Against It: Internal competition is going to hurt the song. I think it’s clearly the better song of the two, but opinion on that matter seems to vary.
The Princess and the Frog - Down in New Orleans
Odds: 7-1
For It: A bluesy song that is an ode to the great city of New Orleans – which is still on everyone’s mind. Can tug at the heartstrings if you let it.
Against It: Unlike Almost There, this is not as well incorporated into the narrative of the film – instead it plays over the action, not a part of it, and that could hurt. As well, without a clear cut choice for this film, vote splitting will hurt.
Will Win: I think The Weary Kind, which has marched through this season, will likely take this award as well.
Should Win: The Weary Kind is one of my favorite songs from 2009 – whether as part of a movie or not.
Least of the Nominees: Loin de Paname. Again, I ask, can you hum a few bars? I’m not even sure what one of the forgettable songs in the movie this one was.
Best Sound Editing
Avatar
Odds: 2-1
For It: The movie is incredibly LOUD, which is usually a good thing for this category – as they like action and science fiction. All the effects created for this movie are unique to the movie itself. They have done a good job at getting the word of how much work went into this out there.
Against It: If Avatar isn’t going to sweep, then this could go to another film. There are other films out there that could sneak in.
The Hurt Locker
Odds: 4-1
For It: If The Hurt Locker is going to sweep this award could help. The incredibly dense sound scapes for the film really help it.
Against It: Perhaps not as much sound effects work – or at least original sounding sound effects work – to truly win this award.
Inglourious Basterds
Odds: 7-1
For It: Some very memorable work – remember the sound of that baseball hat hitting the wall – scary. Obviously a well liked film, and if Harvey really wants this film to win, then he should try and get the word out about all the categories it’s nominated in.
Against It: Which he hasn’t done. Probably the least noticeable in terms of original sound effects, this one probably will not take it.
Star Trek
Odds: 10-1
For It: They do love science fiction and action movies, and this movie is that and has a lot of work in this area.
Against It: But won’t they go for Avatar if they want to reward a film in this genre?
Up
Odds: 15-1
For It: Pixar is a favorite in this category, always being nominated and sometimes winning. Animation does really well here.
Against It: Compared to the work on something like Wall-E, this one seems easy by comparison. The lack of a sound mixing nomination hurts.
Will Win: I think that Avatar walks away with this one, unless they really decide to embrace The Hurt Locker.
Should Win: It is hard to argue against Avatar here.
Least of the Nominees: Tough to say, as this really is a strong line-up. Toss a coin, heads its Star Trek, tails its Up.
Best Sound Mixing
Avatar
Odds: 4-1
For It: The entire sound mix of the film here is dense, and memorable. This is more than just a visually exciting film – it’s also an aurally exciting one.
Against It: But with all those visuals overwhelming the senses, it is easy to forget about the sound.
The Hurt Locker
Odds: 3-1
For It: Dense sound scapes make up the film. The sound really does help make this an edge of your seat film.
Against It: Avatar is getting the word out about the sound of its film. Is The Hurt Locker?
Inglourious Basterds
Odds: 6-1
For It: An incredibly complex mix, with lots of languages, music, explosions and gunfire fighting for your attention, but each one is perfectly played.
Against It: Not as loud or as noticeable as the other nominees, and that will hurt it.
Star Trek
Odds: 10-1
For It: They do love science fiction sound, and this one contains a lot of it.
Against It: Again, if they want to reward that, they’ll go with Avatar.
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Odds: 20-1
For It: The sound was the one thing consistently praised about this horrible film. There certainly is a lot of work put into this one.
Against It: They hate the movie, which will hurt. No Sound Editing nomination (surprising) also hurts. This isn’t going to happen.
Who Will Win: I think The Hurt Locker just may pull this one out.
Who Should Win: It really is tough to argue against Avatar, but I think I might go with The Hurt Locker.
Least of the Nominees: Star Trek is clearly the weakest, even though it is very strong work.
Best Music (Original Score)
Avatar – James HornerOdds: 5-1
For It: The last time Horner teamed up with James Cameron, the result was the iconic Titanic score, which won him an Oscar. His work on Avatar is very strong, and he hits the right rising crescendo moments in the big action scenes that the Academy loves to reward. If Avatar is looking to sweep, this could be a signifier that it is going to happen. Horner has a long track record with Oscar, stretching back more than 20 years, and he is on his 10th nomination.
Against It: The music IS NOT anywhere near as iconic or instantly recognizable as Titanic was. He won two for Titanic (also song), so there is no need to reward him again. Plus, he faces some very stiff competition here. He didn’t even win this at the Globes, which was an Avatar love fest. The score has been criticized by some who here a lot of Horner’s previous work mixed throughout.
Fantastic Mr. Fox – Alexandre Desplat
Odds: 10-1
For It: Desplat has become an Academy favorite in recent years – this is his third nomination in 4 years, but he has yet to actually win the top prize. He had a very busy 2009 – also composing well regarded scores for Coco Avant Chanel, Cheri, A Prophet, Julie & Julia and Twilight: New Moon. He was one of the best composers out there, and his work on Fantastic Mr. Fox ranks among his best – playful and memorable throughout. For some, it will be his time.
Against It: But he has four new scores coming out in 2010, for movies more suited to the Academy’s tastes. Yes, the music here is brilliant and playful, but since when do they go for that? I doubt that this really is Desplat’s year.
The Hurt Locker – Marco Beltrami & Buck Sanders
Odds: 9-1
For It: The movie is on a role, and looking to win as many Oscars as possible. The music here contributes the complex sound scapes created in the movie. Beltrami broke through 2 years ago with his score for 3:10 to Yuma, so he’s now a member of the club, and his frequent collaborator (although this is the first time they have shared credit), Sanders is an up and comer.
Against It: Wasn’t pretty much everyone surprised by this nomination? Can you tell me what the score even sounds like at all without listening to it by itself? The score brilliantly fit the movie – but I doubt it is memorable enough to actually win this prize.
Sherlock Holmes – Hans Zimmer
Odds: 8-1
For It: Zimmer is an old hat at this game by now – getting his first of 8 Oscar nominations more than 20 years ago. He hasn’t been nominated in a while (his last was for Gladiator in 2000), but he is well respected. The Sherlock Holmes score is well suited to the material, and really noticeable, which always helps.
Against It: He has won before, so there is no real rush to reward him again. It is not always the case, but most of the time they do like to give the Score Oscar to a movie they really liked, and considering the lack of nominations for this movie, this isn’t one.
Up – Michael Giacchino
Odds: Even
For It: Giacchino has been doing some great work for years now, although it took until 2007’s Ratatouille for the Academy to notice (I still remember the outrage when his brilliant work for The Incredibles wasn’t nominated in 2004). Now on his second nomination, his time has come. It helps that his score is the most recognizable of the bunch – and hits all the right notes in this movie from sadness to adventure. And his highly praised work on this year’s Star Trek won’t hurt either.
Against It: Not much, except they have never given the score Oscar to a film by Pixar, no matter how brilliant the work is.
Who Will Win: I think Giacchino’s Up really has this one sewn up.
Who Should Win: Up is the best score of the year – hands down.
Least of the Nominees: It infuriates me that the Academy ignored one Carter Burwell score (A Serious Man) and disqualified another (Where the Wild Things Are) for something as formulaic as Zimmer’s score for Sherlock Holmes.
Best Music (Original Song)
Crazy Heart – The Weary KindOdds: 2-1
For It: The song is really a part of the movie, as we hear snippets of it throughout as Jeff Bridges character writes it. When we finally hear the entire song, it is a pure country classic full of sadness and beauty. A true stunner of the song and the only one here that works outside of its movie.
Against It: The Academy often likes to go for songs from animated films, or musicals, and both are nominated here. The choices they have made are often rather suspect.
Nine - Take it All
Odds: 6-1
For It: The emotional high point of the film is this new song for the classic musical, a burlesque inspired number where Marion Cottilard gets out all her rage on her husband. It is the closest thing this movie has to a show stopper.
Against It: All throughout the season, the song was ignored for the more upbeat Cinema Italiano from the movie (for reasons that remain a mystery to me). The Academy obviously didn’t respond too much to the number – or else Cottilard would have been nominated instead of Cruz (which she should have been!).
Paris 36 - Loin de Paname
Odds: 25-1
For It: They have gone for songs from Foreign Language films a few times in the last decade. This old school movie is like a warm blanket to older members of the Academy – who often vote en masse.
Against It: Quick, sing a few bars from the song? Can’t do it, can you? Did anyone see this movie?
The Princess and the Frog - Almost There
Odds: 5-1
For It: An inspiring song, sung by the movie heroine talking about her dreams, and how she is so close to achieving them. For a few minutes anyway, the film resembled a true Disney classic.
Against It: Internal competition is going to hurt the song. I think it’s clearly the better song of the two, but opinion on that matter seems to vary.
The Princess and the Frog - Down in New Orleans
Odds: 7-1
For It: A bluesy song that is an ode to the great city of New Orleans – which is still on everyone’s mind. Can tug at the heartstrings if you let it.
Against It: Unlike Almost There, this is not as well incorporated into the narrative of the film – instead it plays over the action, not a part of it, and that could hurt. As well, without a clear cut choice for this film, vote splitting will hurt.
Will Win: I think The Weary Kind, which has marched through this season, will likely take this award as well.
Should Win: The Weary Kind is one of my favorite songs from 2009 – whether as part of a movie or not.
Least of the Nominees: Loin de Paname. Again, I ask, can you hum a few bars? I’m not even sure what one of the forgettable songs in the movie this one was.
Best Sound Editing
AvatarOdds: 2-1
For It: The movie is incredibly LOUD, which is usually a good thing for this category – as they like action and science fiction. All the effects created for this movie are unique to the movie itself. They have done a good job at getting the word of how much work went into this out there.
Against It: If Avatar isn’t going to sweep, then this could go to another film. There are other films out there that could sneak in.
The Hurt Locker
Odds: 4-1
For It: If The Hurt Locker is going to sweep this award could help. The incredibly dense sound scapes for the film really help it.
Against It: Perhaps not as much sound effects work – or at least original sounding sound effects work – to truly win this award.
Inglourious Basterds
Odds: 7-1
For It: Some very memorable work – remember the sound of that baseball hat hitting the wall – scary. Obviously a well liked film, and if Harvey really wants this film to win, then he should try and get the word out about all the categories it’s nominated in.
Against It: Which he hasn’t done. Probably the least noticeable in terms of original sound effects, this one probably will not take it.
Star Trek
Odds: 10-1
For It: They do love science fiction and action movies, and this movie is that and has a lot of work in this area.
Against It: But won’t they go for Avatar if they want to reward a film in this genre?
Up
Odds: 15-1
For It: Pixar is a favorite in this category, always being nominated and sometimes winning. Animation does really well here.
Against It: Compared to the work on something like Wall-E, this one seems easy by comparison. The lack of a sound mixing nomination hurts.
Will Win: I think that Avatar walks away with this one, unless they really decide to embrace The Hurt Locker.
Should Win: It is hard to argue against Avatar here.
Least of the Nominees: Tough to say, as this really is a strong line-up. Toss a coin, heads its Star Trek, tails its Up.
Best Sound Mixing
AvatarOdds: 4-1
For It: The entire sound mix of the film here is dense, and memorable. This is more than just a visually exciting film – it’s also an aurally exciting one.
Against It: But with all those visuals overwhelming the senses, it is easy to forget about the sound.
The Hurt Locker
Odds: 3-1
For It: Dense sound scapes make up the film. The sound really does help make this an edge of your seat film.
Against It: Avatar is getting the word out about the sound of its film. Is The Hurt Locker?
Inglourious Basterds
Odds: 6-1
For It: An incredibly complex mix, with lots of languages, music, explosions and gunfire fighting for your attention, but each one is perfectly played.
Against It: Not as loud or as noticeable as the other nominees, and that will hurt it.
Star Trek
Odds: 10-1
For It: They do love science fiction sound, and this one contains a lot of it.
Against It: Again, if they want to reward that, they’ll go with Avatar.
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Odds: 20-1
For It: The sound was the one thing consistently praised about this horrible film. There certainly is a lot of work put into this one.
Against It: They hate the movie, which will hurt. No Sound Editing nomination (surprising) also hurts. This isn’t going to happen.
Who Will Win: I think The Hurt Locker just may pull this one out.
Who Should Win: It really is tough to argue against Avatar, but I think I might go with The Hurt Locker.
Least of the Nominees: Star Trek is clearly the weakest, even though it is very strong work.
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