In
theory, The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road should be your frontrunners – they
earned 12 and 10 nominations respectively. But I’m not sure they are. No film
since Titanic has won the Best Picture Oscar without a screenplay nominated –
and neither of these films got a screenplay nod – and neither is a juggernaut
like Titanic either. Plus, no film since Grand Hotel (1932) has won without a
Screenplay or an acting nomination – which is the boat Mad Max: Fury Road is
in. I have a feeling that these two films will battle it out for the “below the
line” prizes, Leo will win Actor for The Revanant, and perhaps one of them
could steal Best Director. I have a tough time believing either actually wins
Best Picture though.
So what
does? The smart money is still probably Spotlight. True, Room was stronger than
anticipated – getting in for Picture and Director, both of which were far from
assured, along with the expected nominations for Brie Larson and the screenplay
(by Emma Donaghue, who becomes the first woman nominated for adapting her own
book – an honor that should have went to Gillian Flynn last year). Larson
probably wins Actress, and it’s possible it wins Screenplay – but I’m not sold
on its chances in the Big Race. The Big Short has been the late breaking movie
that snuck in, and honestly, I think it does have a shot here – just not one
I’m really willing to bet on. Whatever does win between those two, could also
propel their director to victory (and the are the smart money for screenplay
wins). The Martian really needed Ridley Scott to get into the director race –
and he didn’t – so it probably won’t happen. Bridge of Spies is more respected
than loved, and outside Supporting Actor (which is far from assured) what else
is it going to win? Brooklyn really deserved more love than it got, but it
snuck into Picture, so that’s good.
Of the
nominations themselves, I have to say they are somewhat disappointing in many
ways. This was a year that really should have had its fair share of surprises
in the nominating round – and instead the Academy stuck with the safe choices
that Oscar bloggers have been predicting all year (I’m not down on Oscar
bloggers, but with a slate of nominees like this, I do think they have more of
an impact than they care to admit). Look at the best actor category. Does
anyone truly love Bryan Cranston in Trumbo or Eddie Redmayne in The Danish
Girl, or were they seen as such “can’t miss” nominees before they were even
seen, and so they snuck in. And why does DiCaprio have such a lead for the win,
when many (like me) think that it’s actually one of his lesser performances –
he suffered for his art to be sure, but he wasn’t give much else to do. If he
wins, it will be another case of a great actor winning for the wrong movie.
And how
does Jennifer Lawrence’s performance in Joy sneak into the Best Actress lineup
in one of the strongest years the category has ever had. Does anyone like the
movie, or the performance? Lawrence is undeniably talented, and she does what
she can with a underwritten, misjudged role, but an Oscar nomination. Really?
I’d also like to know how they decided on Christain Bale and Mark Ruffalo as
being best in show for The Big Short and Spotlight respectively. I think they
campaigned Steve Carrell as lead actor, which kept him out of Bale’s way – but
still, there are better performances in that movie (and far better ones in
other movies). Ruffalo is fine in Spotlight – but Keaton, Schreiber and perhaps
even Tucci are better – they just don’t have a scene of them screaming, I
guess. If anyone can tell me how Rooney Mara in Carol and Alicia Vikander in
The Danish Girl are “supporting” performances, I would love to know (Mara, in
particular, deserves to be nominated – but in the lead category, not supporting).
I would
have loved to see the Academy reach farther beyond the Best Picture lineup for
more of the acting nominees. Like Paul Dano for Love & Mercy (who had a
campaign that saw him nominated for both lead and supporting actor – and may
have killed his chances), Michael Shannon for 99 Homes for example. But them’s
the breaks I guess.
There
are other things that mystify me – like how not even the directors branch seems
to appreciate the genius of Todd Haynes (not nominated for Carol) – I guess
we’ll see him pick up a lifetime achievement award some day (or actually, not,
since they don’t air those on the show anymore). Or how, even with 8 picture
spots, they don’t find a place for Inside Out. Or why, for the second straight
year, we have 20 white acting nominees. They had their chance with fine work by
Samuel L. Jackson, Michael B. Jordan, Oscar Isaac, Idris Elba, Jason Mitchell –
and decided against them.
Still,
this is kind of what is fun about the Oscars – complaining and bitching about
what they did and did not nominate. And there’s a lot of good things about the
nominations as well – and people to root for. For example Roger Deakins picked
up his 13th Best Cinemaotgraphy Nomination, and is still looking for
his first win (it probably won’t come this year, but you never know). Thomas
Newman also got his 13th nomination (12 for score, one for song) and
is looking for a 1st victory (again, I don’t think it will happen –
but you can root for him). I’m very happy that one of my favorite film
composers – Carter Burwell – finally got an Oscar nomination – for Carol, as
did one of my favorite actresses – Jennifer Jason Leigh – for The Hateful
Eight.
Yet, on
Oscar night I may well be cheering hardest for World of Tomorrow to win the
Best Animated Short Film Oscar – as Don Hertzfeldt’s mini-masterpiece deserves
all the attention it can get. I do have some catching up to do - World of
Tomorrow and the great Pixar short Sanjay’s Super Team are the only shorts I
have seen so far this year – and I will try to catch up with the rest, as long
as they are released before the show. Of the feature films nominated, I need to
see one best actress nominee (Charlotte Rampling), one makeup nominee (The 100
Year Old Man…), one song nominee (Racing Extinction), one animated film (Boy
and the World), one documentary (Winter on Fire) and four Foreign Films (Mustang, Theeb, A War
and Embrace of the Serpent). Winter on Fire is on Netflix, so that’s an easy
one – and 45 Years opens in Toronto next week, when I plan on seeing it (Mustang
opens this week – and I’ll try to squeeze in a showing alongside 45 Years,
although apparently Boy and the World also opens here next week, so depending
on my schedule I’ll try to squeeze that in). The rest I don’t know when/if I’ll
have a chance to see them before the ceremony.
Anyway,
I know I didn’t get around to doing my Oscar nomination prediction piece this
year – but that will not be the case with the Oscar winner predictions – which
I’m going to start on as soon as I finish my year end report.
In case
you missed them, the nominees (not including shorts) are:
Best motion picture of the year
The Big
ShortBridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Best Director
Lenny
Abrahamson, RoomAlejandro G. Iñárritu , The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Actor
Bryan
Cranston, TrumboMatt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Best Actress
Cate
Blanchett, CarolBrie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Best Supporting Actor
Christian
Bale, The Big ShortTom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer
Jason Leigh, The Hateful EightRooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Adapted screenplay
The Big
Short - Charles Randolph and Adam McKayBrooklyn - Nick Hornby
Carol - Phyllis Nagy
The Martian - Drew Goddard
Room - Emma Donoghue
Original screenplay
Bridge
of Spies - Matt Charman and Ethan Coen
& Joel CoenEx Machina - Alex Garland
Inside Out - Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Ronnie del Carmen
Spotlight - Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy
Straight Outta Compton - Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff and S. Leigh Savidge & Alan Wenkus
Best Animated Film
AnomalisaBoy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
Best Documentary
AmyCartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
Best Foreign Language Film
Embrace
of the Serpent - ColombiaMustang - France
Son of Saul - Hungary
Theeb - Jordan
A War - Denmark
Best Cinematography
Carol
Ed LachmanThe Hateful Eight Robert Richardson
Mad Max: Fury Road John Seale
The Revenant Emmanuel Lubezki
Sicario Roger Deakins
Best Film Editing
The Big
ShortMad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Original Score
Bridge
of Spies - Thomas NewmanCarol - Carter Burwell
The Hateful Eight - Ennio Morricone
Sicario - Jóhann Jóhannsson
Star Wars: The Force Awakens - John Williams
Best Costume Design
Carol Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Makeup & Hair Styling
Mad
Max: Fury RoadThe 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant
Original Song
Fifty
Shades of Grey - •Earned It Racing Extinction - Manta Ray
Youth – Simple Song # 3
The Hunting Ground - Til It Happens To You
Spectre – Writing’s on the Wall
Best Production Design
Bridge
of SpiesThe Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Best Sound Editing
Mad
Max: Fury RoadThe Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Sound Mixing
Bridge
of SpiesMad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Visual Effects
Ex
Machina Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
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