Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Oscar Update: The Golden Globe Nominations

The Golden Globe nomination came out this morning, and until the guild awards are released, they are the best indication of what will be in the running for the Oscars. Up in the Air is the big winner capturing nominations for Picture, Director, Actor, two for Supporting Actress and Screenplay. It’s locked a loaded. Inglorious Basterds is also helped picking up nominations for Picture, Director, Supporting Actor and Screenplay. Nine was also a big winners getting in for Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress and Song. It confirms that both Avatar and The Hurt Locker are definite Oscar players as well. Bumps were hit by Precious, who still picked up three nominations (Picture, Actress and Supporting Actress), but failed to get for Director or Screenplay and An Education, which only managed one nomination for Actress. The biggest shock is probably Tobey Maguire getting an Actor nomination, but it’s not something I see happening again in the future. Below are the nominees, and my thoughts. (In case you’re wondering, I put the poster beside the category for the films I suspect to win).

Best Drama
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up in the Air

The big surprise here are the omissions of An Education and Invictus, but looking at this field, you have to wonder what they would have left out. The late breaking Avatar love doomed those other two films. What does this mean for Oscar? Not much, unless you see more than 1 of the best comedy nominees getting into the 10 strong field for Picture this year.

Best Comedy or Musical
(500) Days of Summer
The Hangover
It's Complicated
Julie & Julia

The big surprise here is no nomination for the Coen brothers A Serious Man. One of the most divisive films of the year, keeps dividing them I suppose, and it didn’t help that the film had no big stars for the Globes either. Nine is the only one of these five that will get an Oscar nomination for Best Picture, unless Julie and Julia sneaks in, which I wouldn’t count on.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

The big surprise here is no nomination for Lee Daniels, director of Precious. This certainly does not help the chances of the Peter Jackson, Long Scherfig, The Coen Brothers or Rob Marshall either. Bigelow, Cameron and Reitman can pretty much get ready for the Oscars, and I suspect Eastwood’s rep with the Academy helps him get in too. Tarantino continues a surprisingly strong run in this category. Would not surprise me at all if this was your Oscar line-up.

Best Actor, Drama
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Tobey Maguire, Brothers

The only surprise here is that Maguire got a nomination instead of Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker. This could either be the start of a dark horse campaign for Maguire, or an anomaly. My guess is on the later. The other four are probably Oscar nominees, along with Renner.

Best Actress, Drama
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

Emily Blunt needed this nomination to keep her in the conversation. She has had a decent run so far, and she could be a dark horse at the Oscars. After a lot of buzz, but little to show for it, this nomination helps Helen Mirren as well. Sandra Bullock needed this one to be taken seriously. Mulligan and Sidibe just keep rolling along. Hurt by this are dark horse candidates Abbie Cornish, Robin Wright Penn, Charlotte Gainsbourg, Saorise Ronan, Michelle Monaghan and Tilda Swinton, who really needed something to keep people talking about them. Let’s hope that the SAGs clear this category up a little bit more.

Best Actor, Comedy or Musical
Matt Damon, The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Robert Downey Jr., Sherlock Holmes
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, (500) Days of Summer
Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man

This nomination keeps the slim hopes of Damon, Day-Lewis and Stuhlbarg alive, although unless any of them get into the SAGs, they probably should not be taken too seriously. This is the last time I suspect to Gordon-Levitt or Downey’s names mentioned. I’m a little surprised they did not go with breakout star Bradley Cooper, or perhaps even Alec Baldwin here, but oh well.

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical
Sandra Bullock, The Proposal
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Julia Roberts, Duplicity
Meryl Streep, It's Complicated
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Bullock got in because they like to double dip on big stars. No chance this is the film she’ll be nominated at the Oscars for. They wanted Roberts to show up, so they nominated here as well. They love Streep, so the duel nomination isn’t surprising, and I doubt she’ll split her vote come Oscar time. This should help clear up some of the category confusion for Cotillard, paving the way for an Oscar nomination. Really not sure who else we could have expected here.

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Wouldn’t surprise me at all if this ends up being your Oscar line-up. Waltz and Tucci are pretty much locked in at this point. With the two stars of An Education – Alfred Molina and Peter Sarsgaard – probably splitting the vote for that film too much, there is a real danger of neither of them getting nominated. Still though, I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them ousted Damon, who they nominated because they love stars, or even Harrelson or Plummer, who need to ensure that people actually see their movies. If you’re not one of those 7 men, you can probably forget about being nominated this year.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man

Unless Cotillard causes too much category confusion, and either steals Cruz’s nomination or splits the vote so that neither get in, this could easily be your line-up. Cruz and Moore are still vulnerable though if enough people see The Messenger, and decide to nominate Samantha Morton. Melanie Laurent is still on the sidelines, and will probably stay there.

Best Screenplay
Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell, District 9
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Nancy Meyers, It's Complicated
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

This all but assures Boal, Reitman & Turner and Tarantino getting nominations, but then we probably already knew that. It certainly helps the case for District 9, which shockingly got in despite being nominated nowhere else. The It’s Complicated nomination is surprising, and I doubt we’ll see a repeat at the Oscars, but who knows? No love for An Education, Precious or A Serious Man is somewhat curious.

Best Animated Feature
Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog

I’m beginning to think this could be the five nominated in this category, with the audience friendly Meatballs picking up more and more nominations. I still wouldn’t count out Ponyo yet though, as animators love Miyazaki. The other four are good to go.

Best Foreign Language Film
Broken Embraces
The Maid
Un Prophete
The White Ribbon

I suspect we’ll see a repeat of the nomination for A Prophet and The White Ribbon – two great films – at the Oscars this year. Baria is also eligible, and despite terrible reviews, managed to get a nomination. Money can buy so much. Broken Embraces and The Maid are not eligible, so for them the Globes are as far as they go.

Best Original Score
Michael Giacchino, Up
Marvin Hamlisch, The Informant
James Horner, Avatar
Abel Krozeniowski, A Single Man
Karen O. and Carter Burwell, Where the Wild Things Are

I suspect that Up and Avatar will repeat at the Oscars. Marvin Hamlisch is getting a lot of love as well, so perhaps The Informant can hold on. A Single Man’s score is ever present, but it’s a new composer, so I wouldn’t count on it. I love the Wild Things score, but I think the Oscars will stupidly over look it. Rarely do the Oscars agree with the Globes on this category.

Best Original Song
Cinema Italiano, Nine
I Want To Come Home, Everybody's Fine
I See You, Avatar
The Weary Kind, Crazy Heart
Winter, Brothers

This confirms The Weary King from Crazy Heart and Cinema Italiano from Nine as two of the frontrunners for this category. They love stars, so I suspect that is why U2’s song from Brothers got in, so I doubt we’ll see that repeat at the Oscars. Not sure what to make of Everybody’s Fine, as people do love Paul McCartney, but do they love him enough? Most people I know mocked the Avatar song, but who knows? Nothing for The Princess and the Frog is surprising, and may point to a problem for the film splitting its vote.

1 comment:

  1. When the Golden Globe nominees are released I can figure out what movies I should see that I haven't seen yet - sweet