Year in Advance Oscar Predictions

A couple of years ago, I started doing these year in advance Oscar predictions. They mean nothing as we haven't seen any of the films, and won't for months, and there are always the Junos and the Slumdog Millionaires that come out of nowhere. But I have fun with them. Last year, I got a total of 35/97 correct in my year in advance predictions - not bad. Where I really excelled was in the acting categories, where I predicted 9/20. Try doing that! This year, I hope to do better, but probably won't. I'm going to post these, and then forget about the Oscars until sometime next fall. Enjoy!

BEST PICTURE
The Human Factor
The Informant
Nine
Public Enemies
Shutter Island

Logic: Clint Eastwood directing Morgan Freeman in a Nelson Mandella movie sounds like Oscar bait to me, so The Human Factor is in. Steven Soderbergh returning to mainstream, Oscar friendly filmmaking for the first time in years could get The Informant in play. Rob Marshall doing another musical, with an amazing cast, guarntees Nine will be in play. Michael Mann doing The Departed during the depression with Johnny Depp gets Public Enemies in. And finally, Scorsese’s last three got in, so don’t bet against Shutter Island.

BEST DIRECTOR
Clint Eastwood, The Human Factor
Michael Mann, Public Enemies
Ron Marshall, Nine
Martin Scorsese, Shutter Island
Steven Soderbergh, The Informant

Logic: Basically the same as best picture. All of these filmmakers are well known/well respected enough that if their films crack the top five, you’d be a sucker to bet against them.

BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day Lewis, Nine
Johnny Depp, Public Enemies
Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island
Morgan Freeman, The Human Factor
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Boat That Rocked

Logic: Daniel Day Lewis is always great, and Nine gives him a great role, so as long as he can sing, he should be in. They desperately want to give both Depp and DiCaprio an Oscar, and they have bait-y roles this year. Morgan Freeman as Mandella is all but assured. And finally, Philip Seymour Hoffman has become an Oscar favorite, so don’t bet against him.

BEST ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces
Nicole Kidman, Need
Meryl Streep, Untitled Nancy Meyers Project
Hilary Swank, Amelia
Naomi Watts, Need

Logic: Cruz just won an Oscar, so picking her is risky, but teaming up with Almodovar again is not. Swank as Amelia Earhart seems like a sure thing as well. Even if we don’t know the damn title, Streep is always in play, and I have learned you’re a sucker to bet against her. Kidman and Watts for Need? Could happen, but they are really just there because I didn’t know who else to pick.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Billy Crudup, Public Enemies
Matt Damon, The Human Factor
Richard Kind, A Serious Man
Kodi-Scott McPhee, The Road
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

Logic: Billy Crudup has done some solid work for a while, and is looking for his Oscar breakout – playing J. Edgar Hoover could help. I think they want to nominate Damon again, and in an bait-y Eastwood movie, you can’t go wrong. Richard Kind is that kind of character actor who the Coen’s know precisely what to do with. Kodi-Scott McPhee already has amazing buzz for his performance in The Road. And finally, Stanley Tucci is one of those great actors still searching for a nomination – playing the killer in Peter Jackson’s film could finally be that chance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mo’Nique, Push: Based on a Novel by Sapphire
Marion Cotillard, Public Enemies
Nicole Kidman, Nine
Sophia Loren, Nine
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Logic: Yes, that Mo’Nique, but the reviews out of Sundance suggest this is a very real possibility. Marion Cottillard will be in two bait-y movies this year, but often being the only woman in a male centric cast helps. I picked two of the Nine ladies, almost at random. Truly it could be any one or two of major female roles. Never bet against Streep.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Boat That Rocked (Richard Curtis)
Broken Embraces (Pedro Almodóvar)
An Education (Nick Hornby)
A Serious Man (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
Up (Bob Patterson)

Logic: Curtis, Almodovar and the Coens are Oscar favorites, doing stuff that could easily get noticed. Hornby’s film got raves out of Sundance. And Pixar seems to get these nominations in their sleep.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Human Factor (Anthony Peckham)
Nine (Anthony Minghella, Michael Tolkin)
Public Enemies (Ronan Bennett, Ann Biderman, Michael Mann)
Shutter Island (Laeta Kalogridis, Steven Knight)
Taking Woodstock (James Schamus)

Logic: The Human Factor has Eastwood, Public Enemies and Shutter Island are big auteur driven films destined for the Best Picture lineup. Taking Woodstock should be an audience favorite, but one only the writers get. And finally Nine just seems right, doesn’t it?

CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Lovely Bones (Andrew Lesnie)
Nine (Dion Beebe)
Public Enemies (Dante Spinotti)
Shutter Island (Robert Richardson)
The Tree of Life (Emmanuel Lubezki)

Logic: Past nominees all, with a few winners thrown in to boot. Also they all should have some breathtaking work to do.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Canada
France
Italty
Japan
Spain

Logic: Until September, when we know what the countries pick, it’s a crapshoot. But France almost always gets in, as does Italy. Japan just won this past year, so I threw them in. Spain seems to have a few strong contenders. I can never bring myself not to include Canada.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Cove
El General
Good Hair
The September Issue
We Live in Public

Logic: These are the five American docs that won something at Sundance. At this point, it’s anyone’s guess, and I made mind.

ANIMATED FILM
Monsters vs. Aliens
Ponyo on a Cliff by the Sea
Up

Logic: Up will be this year’s Wall-E, Monsters vs. Aliens will be Kung Fu Panda, and you’re an idiot if you think the animators won’t nominate the new Miyazaki film.

FILM EDITING
Green Zone
The Human Factor
Nine
Public Enemies
Shutter Island

Logic: Stick with the best picture line-up, but throw in the Paul Greengrass movie, as his last two also got nominated here. The Informant gets the boot, because often it’s Soderbergh himself doing it.

ART DIRECTION
Amelia
Nine
Public Enemies
Shutter Island
The Tree of Life

Logic: All period pieces, which means a lot of noticeable Art Direction. It’s what they like.

COSTUME DESIGN
Amelia
Chéri
Nine
Public Enemies
The Young Victoria

Logic: All period pieces, which means a lot of pretty costumes. It’s what they like.

MAKEUP
Amelia
Nine
The Tempest

Logic: It’s make-up, what they hell do I know?

MUSIC (SCORE)
Avatar (James Horner)
The Human Factor (unknown)
Shutter Island (unknown)
The Tree of Life (Alexandre Desplat)
Up (Michael Giacchino)

Logic: Horner, Desplat and Giacchino have become Oscar favorites, and they have award friendly work here. The Human Factor and Shutter Island should have many chances to manipulate the audience.

MUSIC (SONG)
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Human Factor
Up

Logic: I don’t have a clue, but Pixar always has songs, and Wes Anderson likes music. And since I’m putting The Human Factor everywhere, it’s here as well.

SOUND EDITING
Avatar
Terminator Salvation
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up
Watchmen

Logic: They like LOUD and action and animation. These fit the bill.

SOUND MIXING
Avatar
Public Enemies
Shutter Island
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up

Logic: They like LOUD and action and animation. These fit the bill.

VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
The Wolf Man

Logic: I guarantee Cameron will do something great with Avatar. The last Transformers got nominated here. And The Wolf Man should have some great stuff.