Oscar Predictions - Part 1 - Foreign, Documentary, Animated and Shorts

I have decided to post my Oscar predicitions in three parts because they get quite long. This first lisiting is for the Foreign Language Film, Documentary Film, Animated Film and three short film categories. I will go into who I think WILL win, who SHOULD win and why. At the end, I'll do a fourth post with all my predictions by themselves. Enjoy.

Foreign Language Film
The Nominees
The Baader Meinhof Complex – Germany
The Class – France
Departures – Japan
Revanche – Austria
Waltz with Bashir – Israel

Will Win: It’s probably down to Waltz with Bashir or The Class. But Waltz has left more people emotionally moved, and while it may sound cynical (or perhaps anti-Semetic) to say so, over the years I have learned that at the Oscars, you don’t bet against the Jews.

Should Win: As much as I loved Waltz, The Class is clearly the superior film. A true triumph of writing, directing and acting.

Documentary
The Nominees
The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water

Will Win: Man on Wire. It has won pretty much EVERY prize this awards season. Why, I don’t know, I found the film to be merely average, but it would stun me if it didn’t win.

Should Win: Since I haven’t seen The Betrayal, Trouble the Water or The Garden, I can’t say for sure, but I did dearly love Werner Herzog’s Encounters at the End of the World, and the man is an insane genius, so I would love to see him on stage at the Oscars, just to see what he would say.

Animated Film
The Nominees
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

Will Win: Wall-E. The biggest lock of the season, which has a lot of big locks.

Should Win: Wall-E is the best movie Pixar has made yet. Need I say more?

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Nominees
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness — From the Balcony of Room 306

Will Win: The consensus seems to be The Conscience of Nhem En. Unless it’s The Final Inch. Or Smile Pinki. Or The Witness. Truly, I ain’t got a clue, but let’s say Conscience.

Should Win: Don’t know, and pretty much don’t care. At least the nominees in the other short categories TRY to get people to watch them. These guys don’t care, so why should I?

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
The Nominees
La maison en petits cube
Lavatory — Lovestory
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way Up

Will Win: When in doubt, go with the film that you know most people have seen – that’s Presto which everyone saw before the beginning of Wall-E this year.

Should Win: At this point, Pixar’s wonderful Presto is my choice, but I still need to see La maison en petits cube and This Way Up. Check back this weekend for reviews of all five.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
The Nominees
Auf der Strecke (On the Line)
Grisen (The Pig)
Manon on the Asphalt
New Boy
Spielzeugland (Toyland)

Will Win: Not to sound like Archie Bunker, but you don’t bet against a Holocaust film when you have no clue, so go with Spielzeugland.

Should Win: Haven’t seen any of these yet, but am hoping to get to all five by the ceremony on Sunday. Check back this weekend, and I should have them all reviewed.