Oscar Predictions: Directors and Writers

Today, we will look at the directors and the writers. They are even more important to the success or failure of a movie than the actors – but they don’t get the recognition from the public.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Odds: 2-1
For Her: There is a real movement afoot of people who believe that it is long past time that a woman won the Best Director Oscar – something that has never happened before. Add to that, Bigelow made the most critically acclaimed film of the year, and unlike the other female nominees, she made a tough, muscular (dare I say masculine?), film in one of Oscar’s favorite genre – the war movie. The DGA award is the most important precursor, and she won it.
Against Her: The film didn’t make a lot of money – her film grossed significantly less than any of the other nominees in this category. Cameron did some truly groundbreaking work on Avatar, and because this is a pure ballot – not preferential like picture, the divisiveness of the film won’t hurt him as much here.

James Cameron, Avatar
Odds: 4-1
For Him: Oscar loves success – and Cameron is the man behind the biggest movie in history at this point. He truly did push special effects into the next generation with his film. He is the only person here whose film itself is groundbreaking. He won the Globe, which certainly helps him.
Against Him: The film is divisive, and that could hurt him. Many remember what they felt was an egotistical Oscar speech the last time he won best director for Titanic (“I’m king of the world!”). The awards are lining up behind Bigelow, and Cameron himself lent her support when in his Globes speech he commented that he thought Kathryn was going to win – and deserved to.

Lee Daniels, Precious
Odds: 10-1
For Him: Daniels deserves a lot of credit for Precious, as he took what could have been just another movie of the week for the Women’s Network, and turned it into one of the best reviewed, most loved films of the year – both with his work with the actors, and his visual style. There’s been a lot of talk about making Oscar history this year by making Bigelow the first woman to win this prize – but it should be noted that if Daniels won, he’d be the first African American.
Against Him: But is anyone really mentioning that this year, or are they all focused on Bigelow? Normally an African American being nominated here would be big news (has anyone other than John Singleton ever been nominated? I can’t think of any), but this year it simply isn’t. His film is probably the most divisive of any of the nominees, and I can see even big supporters of Precious looking somewhere else for Director. This is Daniels’ big breakthrough film as a director – and often they like to go with someone with some history behind them.

Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Odds: 8-1
For Him: Reitman received his second nomination in a row (and he’s only made 3 films!) for Up in the Air. Everything else seems so serious this year, but Up in the Air has more comedic elements than the other movies. His name is well known because of his father, and they will really want to give him an Oscar.
Against Him: Which they’ll do in the adapted screenplay category. Bigelow and Cameron are far out in front right now, and Up in the Air has faded a little bit down the stretch. By giving Reitman the Oscar for writing (like they have done in the past to directors like Alexander Payne, Sofia Coppola, Paul Haggis, Quentin Tarantino – the list goes on and on) they can still reward him for his great work this year.

Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Odds: 7-1
For Him: He has the biggest cast of any of the nominees, and he is the only one who had to juggle multiple storylines. His film is complex, yet exciting – no mean feat considering how much talk there is in the film. The film is made for film lovers, which presumably means Academy members.
Against Him: But, they can give him the Original screenplay Oscar and still regard him for a film they obviously loved. The film has detractors, and the violence will be off putting for some. Bigelow and Cameron are far ahead of the pack this year, and I doubt Tarantino can catch them.

Who Will Win: It really does come down to Bigelow vs. Cameron, but I think Bigelow has enough support to put her over the top for the win.

Who Should Win: Since Tarantino made my favorite film of the year, he is obviously my choice here. No complaints if Bigelow wins however.

Least of the Nominees: I just don’t think Lee Daniels is in the same league as the other directors. Yes, he made a TV movie of the week feel raw and emotional – but it’s still a TV movie of the week.

Best Adapted Screenplay
District 9 – Neil Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell
Odds: 15-1
For Them: They wrote one of the best reviewed films of the year, and audiences loved it to. The Academy gave this film four Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, so it is obvious that they liked the film.
Against Them: The nomination is going to have been reward enough. They are going up against three heavier hitters from the Best Picture line-up – and ones that garnered more praise for their screenplays.

An Education – Nick Hornby
Odds: 5-1
For Him: Hornby is a well respected writer, and his screenplay for An Education has been praised all year long. It takes talent to essentially turn a magazine article into a fully well rounded movie – especially when you’re a man and the protagonist is a teenage girl.
Against Him: He is more well known as a novelist than a screenwriter. An Education has faded a little bit down the stretch. Plus, the charges that the movie is anti-Semitic all stem for his screenplay.

In the Loop – Jesse Armstrong/Simon Blackwell/Armando Iannucci/Tony Roche
Odds: 20-1
For Them: They wrote one of the most quotable films of the year. Pretty much every other line is a zinger that is hilarious and smart. But they were still able to craft a movie that was intelligent about global politics.
Against Them: As the only nominee for a non Best Picture contender, it’s hard to drum up support. The fact that this the films only nomination certainly doesn’t help either. They are adapting their own TV show, so some will feel that that this is just a sitcom blown up for the big screen.

Precious – Geoffrey Fletcher
Odds: 7-1
For Him: People have talked about the movie all year long. It took talent to take Sapphire’s book – as full of idiosyncrasies as it was – and turn it into a complete motion picture. Mo’Nique did a wonderful job acting – but it all started with his lines.
Against Him: The screenplay has gone largely unnoticed this season – somewhat surprising. Everyone talks about Hornby with An Education, and Reitman with Up in the Air, but no one seems to mention this one. Strange.

Up in the Air – Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner
Odds: Even
For Them: This is a real opportunity for the Academy to give Jason Reitman an Oscar – something they want to do. They all know he doesn’t stand a chance for director, so if they want to give him an Oscar, for a film that they obviously love this is their chance. They took a rather cynical book, and turned it something much, much more.
Against Them: There has been a screenwriting controversy surrounding this movie all season – as Reitman felt he should get sole credit for the work. The Academy may not want to see their annual back slapping party turn into an awkward moment.

Will Win: I really do not see how anyone is going to overtake Up in the Air – which is easily the most praised screenplay in this category this year.

Should Win: For me, In the Loop is far and away the best written movie of this bunch of nominees.

Least of the Nominees: I think most of the credit for Precious has to go to director Lee Daniels, and his cast, who turned Fletcher’s screenplay into something much deeper than it was on the page.

Best Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker – Mark Boal
Odds: 4-1
For Him: He wrote the most acclaimed film of the year, and the movie I think will probably win the top prize. The movie is a wonderful mixture of character development, and suspense, which made the film much deeper than many war films.
Against Him: When people talk about the film, they talk about Bigelow first, Renner second and Boal right near the bottom. It was not an easy screenplay for him to write, but he has not quite gotten enough credit this year. The fact that he is going up against Tarantino doesn’t help him.

Inglourious Basterds – Quentin Tarantino
Odds: 3-1
For Him: They obviously love the movie, as it got 8 nominations total. He is also nominated for director, but he has almost no chance at winning that one, so this would be a nice consolation prize. The movie is all about the writing – the different languages, the dialogue, and the intense sequences. Tarantino is one of the best screenwriters in the world.
Against Him: The movie does have some detractors, so they could go somewhere else. The Hurt Locker is riding high right now, and could carry Boal right along with it. Since Tarantino already one this Oscar for 1994’s Pulp Fiction, they may not feel the need to give him another one.

The Messenger – Oren Moverman & Allesandro Camon
Odds: 20-1
For Them: If the Academy wants to give the award to an Iraq war movie that is all about the dialogue and character development, and not intense action sequences, than The Messenger is the film to give it to.
Against Them: The film didn’t get into the best picture lineup this year – the only nominee here that didn’t. This was a surprising nomination, and surprise nomination doesn’t lead to Oscar wins.

A Serious Man – Joel & Ethan Coen
Odds: 15-1
For Them: The Coens are loved by the Academy. They have already won two screenwriting Oscars for Fargo and No Country for Old Men, and A Serious Man is a brilliant little screenplay by the brothers. The film did sneak into the best picture lineup.
Against Them: This is just not the Coen’s year. They won just two years ago for No Country, so the Academy is going to look to spread the wealth a little bit.

Up – Pete Docter & Bob Peterson & Tom McCarthy
Odds: 10-1
For Them: Pixar has become somewhat of a perennial nominee in this category – with Toy Story, Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille, Wall-E and now this one all getting nominated. Yet they have never won the prize – some will say their time has come. This is the first of that batch to break into the Best Picture lineup.
Against Them: The fact that they have never won proves that the Academy still looks down at animation for wins in major categories. I think the other films would have snuck into a 10 strong best picture lineup as well – and Up would not have been nominated in a five wide field.

Who Will Win: It comes down to Boal vs. Tarantino, but I think the Academy will want to give it to Quentin to reward him for both writing and directing one of their favorite films of the year.

Who Should Win: Tarantino’s screenplay is the best written, most complex, and most quotable of the year. Need I say more?

Least of the Nominees: This is actually a strong field – with five great nominations, so I really don’t want to pick one. But if I had to, I’d say The Messenger is just a notch below the work of the other four.

Oscar Predictions: The Other Best Pictures

Today, we look at the “other” picture categories – Foreign Language, Animated, Documentary, Documentary Short, Animated Short and Live Action Short. The shorts in particular can give you a leg up on those Oscar pools, as many people just blind guess what will win.

Best Animated Feature Film
Coraline
Odds: 10-1
For It: A surprise hit early in the year, the film was able to stave off a lot of competition for movies that made a lot more money, and came out later in the year. It has been mentioned on a lot of critic’s lists, and has even surprised the frontrunners with a couple of victories of its own. Director Henry Selick has been working for years in this field, and has yet to win an Oscar.
Against It: It really has been the third man in terms of all the animated awards this year – trailing behind Up and Fantastic Mr. Fox, which were both bigger critical hits than Coraline. Even if Coraline did make a good chunk of money at the beginning of the year, it is dwarfed by Up, who as the only film is this category also up for best picture, is really running away with this one.

Fantastic Mr. Fox
Odds: 5-1
For It: A huge critical hit this fall. Directed by Wes Anderson, who has been nominated by the Academy in the past, although never here, giving this film the award would be a way of giving a hip, younger filmmaker an Oscar, without having to give him one of the more major awards.
Against It: No matter how loved by the critics the film was, it didn’t do well at the box office, as families were put off by Anderson’s idiosyncrasies. Some will love it, but not as many as those who love Up, who as the only film here also in best picture, has to be seen as the frontrunner.

The Princess and the Frog
Odds: 15-1
For It: Disney animation is loved by the Academy, and yet since this award only started at the beginning of the decade, none of the Disney classics have ever won this award. Giving it the Oscar would be a nice welcome back to them.
Against It: Although the critics liked the film, they didn’t love it. And audiences felt the same way, as the film barely squeaking by the $100 million mark is slightly disappointing. The film, although good, is in no way equal to Disney’s best films of the past.

The Secret of Kells
Odds: 20-1
For It: A surprise nominee (I would argue the biggest surprise of nomination day), the film is obviously well loved by those who have seen it, since it was able to get in with almost no fanfare, and no real release for the film. Those tired of computer animation, but who don’t want to embrace Disney, could wind up here.
Against It: The challenge will be to get enough people to actually watch the film, as it does work on the honor system. Considering Up got in for best picture, I have to wonder how many people will even bother to stick this one in the DVD player before filling out their ballot. Surprise nominees, with no box office to speak of, never really win.

Up
Odds: Even
For It: The film became only the second animated film in history to score a Best Picture nomination, which marks this as the definite frontrunner here. Pixar is beloved by the Academy – winning this award for Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille and Wall-E. This would make it a nice round 5.
Against It: Perhaps some are getting sick of Pixar winning this every year, and will look somewhere else. The film only did get into best picture because there were 10 slots, not because it is more beloved than the other Pixar films.

Will Win: I think Up has this one locked up, as it is both the critical and commercial champ of this bunch – and that Best Picture nominations pretty much makes that assured.

Should Win: I am torn here, as I loved Up almost as much as my favorite Pixar movies, while at the same time, was completely enamored by Anderson’s charming Fox. I’d give the edge to Up, but not by much.

Least of the Nominees: I hate to pick on the little guy here, and rain on a feel good story, but I don’t really think The Secret of Kells, which is a charmingly old fashioned movie, is quite as good as the others.

Documentary (Feature)
Burma VJ
Odds: 10-1
For It: A remarkable film made up almost entirely of footage captured by undercover reporters shooting the protests in Burma against the repressive government. The footage is amazing, and the only way we would get to know what is happening the country. The film is surprising inspiring as well.
Against It: Not a typical documentary in the way the Academy likes – that is talking heads combined with archive footage. I cannot think of another recent documentary in this vein that was able to pull off a win here.

The Cove
Odds: 2-1
For It: Undoubtedly the most talked about documentary of the year, The Cove has left audiences shaken every since its premiere at Sundance last January. It’s a powerful and exciting movie, about exposing the truth behind the dolphin slaughter in Japan, and its politics are in the right place for the Academy.
Against It: Despite having more ink devoted to it than any doc of the year, it didn’t really translate into mass commercial success – as the film grossed under $1 million (which still does place it second). It could be too tough to watch for some members.

Food, Inc.
Odds: 5-1
For It: The highest grossing doc nominated by a mile, Food Inc. exposes the corruption involved in our food production, and how giant corporations are ruining the food we eat, and making us fat in order to make money. Audience hits for docs are rare, and although this is nowhere near the scale of even An Inconvenient Truth, it’s closer than anything else nominated.
Against It: If you had done any sort of reading about this issue before watching the documentary, then nothing here came as much of a surprise. Despite raking up a number of high profile nominations this awards season, it never really did WIN anything.

The Most Dangerous Man in America
Odds: 15-1
For It: The movie about a CIA agent who places his morality over his job, and works to expose the secrets of the Vietnam era will likely strike a chord with old fashioned liberals in the Academy.
Against It: The film has been barely been released, and no one is really talking about it that much. The Vietnam War was 40 years ago now, so they may want to give the award to something more timely.

Which Way Home
Odds: 6-1
For It: An inspiring, heartbreaking story about children from South America who try and make the journey by themselves into America to make a better life for themselves. The filmmakers get the story right from the mouths of the kids as they make the journey – and their stories are tragic, but the kids are tremendously sympathetic.
Against It: I hate to say it, but with the economy in the crapper, and two wars still waging on, illegal immigration kind of feels like yesterday’s news (right, Lou Dobbs?). The film does not have the devastating impact of The Cove, and the fact the film has not really had a theatrical release will hurt it.

Who Will Win: The Cove I think should hold onto the award it’s been the frontrunner for all year.

Who Should Win: Personally, I think that this was a weak year for docs, but they pretty much picked the best of the bunch. I’ll go with The Cove, although I quite liked Burma VJ and The Most Dangerous Man in America as well.

Least of the Nominees: For me, while I thought Which Way Home tried very hard - and was an honorable effort, it ranks just a notch below the others.

Best Foreign Language Film
Ajami (Israel)
Odds: 10-1
For It: Not to sound crass or anything, but there are a lot of Jewish people in the Academy, so a film from Israel could be what they are looking for here. This is the third nomination in row from that country (following Beaufort and Waltz with Bashir) and the 9th overall, and yet they have never won. Those who have seen it have a lot of nice things to say about it.
Against It: The film doesn’t have the buzz around it that some of the others films have, and while it is doing respectable business in limited release; it really hasn’t not ignited too many critical praise. It apparently contains quite a bit of violence, which is off putting to some in Academy.

The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
Odds: 20-1
For It: To some, this has been the year of female directors, and Peru’s entry in this race is the only one directed by a woman. Its story of the effects of sexual violence through the generation could certainly touch many women in the Academy.
Against It: It still doesn’t have a North American distribution deal in place. It is a film heavy on symbolism, and light on plot and that usually does not go over well with the Academy. Peru has never even been nominated before this year, let alone won.

A Prophet (France)
Odds: 4-1
For It: One of the most talked films of all of 2009, the film has garnered constant praise and awards since its debut at Cannes where it won the Grand Prize of the Jury. The film is a dizzying, violent 2 and half hour prison drama, with political overtures. It is also far and away the most entertaining film of the bunch. France has a good track record of winning this award.
Against It: Could it be too violent for the more conservative Academy members? By holding off releasing the film until 2010, the North America distributer cost itself some buzz, and awards, that the film would have won had it been released earlier.

The Secret in Their Eyes (Argentina)
Odds: 6-1
For It: Probably the closest thing we have to a film in the competition that feels like an American film, just with another language spoken instead of English. A well made thriller, stretching over 25 years, the film is well made, well acted and has a shocking ending. Although the film doesn’t have the buzz of the two frontrunners that often doesn’t matter to the Academy (just look at last year’s winner).
Against It: But buzz does help a film and this one so far doesn’t have much. It will be released theatrically later this year, but by not doing it sooner, the film has cost itself some free publicity. A good thriller, but does it carry the thematic weight the Academy likes to see?

The White Ribbon (Germany)
Odds: 3-1
For It: Michael Haneke is one of the most talked about filmmakers in the world, and The White Ribbon has garnered praise and awards all year, since it won the top prize (beating A Prophet) at the Cannes film festival earlier this year. The film isn’t as shocking violent as some of Haneke’s past works, and really does feel like a classic, with its black and white photography, and thematic weight.
Against It: It could be too slow moving for many in the Academy, who like films that are more easily understood. It could frustrate people who want everything wrapped up in a nice, neat little package by the end of the movie – something Haneke refuses to do in all of his films.

Who Will Win: It’s tough to call, since Academy members need to prove they have seen all five films at an Academy screening, and request a separate ballot, meaning that far few than 6,000 votes are cast. I’ll go with The White Ribbon, but I could easily see A Prophet pulling off a minor upset, or The Secret of Their Eyes pulling off a major one.

Should Win: Both The White Ribbon and A Prophet are masterpieces – two of the very best films of the year, and better than almost anything in the Best Picture category. I go back and forth on this one every day. At the moment though, I’m going with A Prophet.

Least of the Nominees: Since I have not seen Ajami, I cannot really say. But I really didn’t like The Milk of Sorrow, which didn’t ever come together for me as movie.

Documentary (Short Subject)
China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
Odds: 3-1
For It: This is the only movie I have seen out there actually try to promote itself for the win – positioning it as a David vs. Goliath story as the Chinese government has been trying to stop the film from screening, and bad mouthing it non-stop. And although this may be crass to say, it doesn’t hurt the film that it is about the after effects of an earthquake, which is very much on everybody’s mind with Haiti.
Against It: The film itself was, to me anyway, only marginal. Yes, it is an emotional story about grieving parents reaching out to their government for answers. But it established its basic setup early, and then had nowhere to build to. The overall effect was a little lacking for me.

The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
Odds: 7-1
For It: Since I haven’t had a chance to see this one, I’m not really sure. It sounds like an emotional story about a former politician, Booth Gardner, coming out in support of the assisted suicide legislation in Washington State. It could strike a chord with some.
Against It: The issue of assisted suicide is still extremely divisive – even among good liberals like Academy members. The subject matter could be off putting – and the few reviews I have seen have not been overly great.

The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Odds: 4-1
For It: This is certainly the most immediately relevant movie to Americans nominated in this category. The movie follows a group of workers during the final weeks and days leading up to the closing on the GM plant, which is the backbone of their hometown. With so many closures coming down around the country, this is definitely relevant.
Against It: But will it strike a chord with Oscar voters? Like China’s Unnatural Disaster, to me this film started off strong, and then didn’t go very far with its actual premise. Yes, the movie is emotional, but will the loss of the jobs of blue collar workers really appeal to Oscar members?

Music by Prudence
Odds: 6-1
For It: They have gone for inspirational documentaries before in this category (just last year for example), and from the sounds of it, this story about Zimbabwe singer Prudence Mabhena certainly qualifies as that.
Against It: I have heard very little about this film from anyone. One thinks that they may simply be happy with the nomination. Is HBO going to support this over their other films in the competition?

Rabbit à la Berlin
Odds: 5-1
For It: This one sounds like a can’t miss, strange little film. It is the untold story of rabbits who literally lived between the Berlin Walls for all the years they were up. It was the safest place for them. If the film captures some sort of weird Watership Down, or March of the Penguins, feel, it could surprise.
Against It: It has not been widely seen here from what I understand (I certainly couldn’t find it). And really a documentary about bunnies? I don’t see it.

What Will Win: More often than not, this is a crapshoot, where you simply have to guess. My guess is China’s Unnatural Disaster, because they actually appear to want it, and it will strike a chord.

What Should Win: Since I’ve only seen two of the nominees this is impossible to say. Out of the two, I prefer The Last Truck – but not by much.

Least of the Nominees: Again, since I’ve only had the chance to see two of the nominees (why they don’t do what the other shorts do and make themselves available for download on iTunes I have no idea). Out of the two I have seen, I liked China’s Unnatural Disaster just a little bit less.

Short Film (Animated)
French Roast
Odds: 10-1
For It: This is a delightful and funny little movie about the difference between the rich and the poor. It is cleverly animated, and has a sweet, if ultimately predictable, conclusion.
Against It: I think there are other films in this vein nominated this year that do things better than this one. Out of all of the nominees, this was the least surprising of them all.

Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty
Odds: 5-1
For It: An utterly hilarious litter movie about an old Irish grandmother telling her grandson the story of sleeping beauty, with her own demented take on it. It should appeal to the older Academy members, who may relate to Granny O’Grimm a little more than they want to admit. The movie is hilarious right through the end credits.
Against It: The shortest of the nominees at just six minutes, the movie runs the risk of not having the same weight or remembrance factor of the other nominees.

The Lady and the Reaper
Odds: 15-1
For It: The movie is fast moving and fun, as the Grim Reaper and a handsome doctor fight for the life of an old woman. It has the feel of one of those old fashioned cartoons like Bugs Bunny.
Against It: Which is a problem, because it definitely has a been there, done that feel to it. It also repeats itself, and at just 8 minutes long, that is never a good sign.

Logorama
Odds: 4-1
For It: The most original film of the bunch, this one uses all corporate logos and mascots to tell it’s violent little crime drama, which is hilarious, well animated, original and at the same time it has a point to make about our modern society – something that really cannot be said about the other nominees.
Against It: But it is very violent for an animated movie (although it is cartoon violence), and it also contains a hell of a lot of swearing. These two factors could turn off a lot of older voters – who maybe the only ones who actually vote for this award.

A Matter of Loaf and Death
Odds: 3-1
For It: The sixth outing for Wallace and Gromit, four of the other outings have been nominated for an Oscar, and three of the them have won, so the Academy obviously loves these two characters. The movie is fun and funny, with loving homages to all sorts of classic movies. The longest nominee, at nearly 30 minutes, it will undoubtedly be remembered by the Academy.
Against It: Perhaps the fact that three of the other films have already won director Nick Park an Oscar will make the voters go for something else. After all, they moved these two to features last time and won, so going back to shorts seems like a step backwards.

Who Will Win: I think that Wallace and Gromit will capture their fourth Oscar this time out, but they do face some stiff competition.

Who Should Win: I thought Logorama was far and away the most original, daring and entertaining film of the bunch.

Least of the Nominees: The Lady and the Reaper just didn’t rise to the same level as the rest of these did. I am a little confused why the Academy overlooked Pixar’s delightful Partly Cloudy, which while is far from their best short, is still better than this one.

Short Film (Live Action)
The Door
Odds: 3-1
For It: If, unlike me, you were not able to guess the finale of this movie from early on, I imagine that the film would pack an emotional wallop. It certainly does try very hard to tug on your heartstrings. It is also a well made and well acted little movie.
Against It: Personally, I found the film frustrating, as it tried so hard to keep its rather obvious secrets.

Instead of Abracadabra
Odds: 5-1
For It: An enjoyable, light comedy – something the other nominees are not – this film will likely leave most people smiling, as it is an enjoyable little farce.
Against It: It could be seen as too lightweight by the Academy, who likes their winners – even in this category – to carry a little more weight.

Kavi
Odds: 6-1
For It: Like The Door, this one tries very hard to tug at your heartstrings, and could very well succeed for some viewers. Again, like The Door, it is the only film that seems to be about something “important”.
Against It: The Door is a better film overall, so people looking for something weighty and dramatic, will most likely go there.

Miracle Fish
Odds: 7-1
For It: A great short film, short on story, but long on mood and tone, with a rug pulling ending that actually works quite well.
Against It: They don’t like movies more about tone than story.

The New Tenants
Odds: 4-1
For It: Recognizable actors in a wonderful black comedy where the bodies keep piling up. Six Shooter won this award a few years ago, so they obviously don’t mind blood and swearing.
Against It: But there is a lot of both, which will put off some members. As will the surrealistic ending. As promising as he is, the director is no Martin McDonagh.

Who Will Win: The Door is emotional AND has an “important” subject matter. I think it takes it.

Who Should Win: Miracle Fish was far and away my favorite.

Least of the Nominees: I wasn’t a fan of either The Door or Kavi, but I think The Door is a much better made film, so I’ll say Kavi.

Genie Nominations

So yesterday, they announced the Genie awards, although it somehow slipped by me until today. I am somewhat embarassed to admit that I have not seen as many of these films as I probably should have - something I will do my best to correct in the next month and half before the ceremony. Below I have listed some of my reactions.

No "I Killed My Mother"? - I Killed My Mother was far and away the most talked about Canadian film of the year - winning prizes around the world in film festivals. It is an absolute embarassment that the Academy DID NOT NOMINATE IT FOR ONE AWARD!!! No picture, director, actor, actress, screenplay, cinematography or editing - all of which should have been assured. Does it make any sense at all that the one award the film will get - the Claude Jutra award for best debut film - went to this film and not Charles Officer's Nurse.Fighter.Boy, another debut, that raked up 10 nominations? This is an absolute embarassment for the Academy. They look like idiots right now.

Once Again, no Atom Egoyan. I am a little surprised that Adoration didn't get more nominations - a measly two for Scott Speedman in support actor (where, for my money, they should have nominated Kenneth Walsh instead), and for screenplay for Egoyan. What makes this especially weird is that I thought that Egoyan's direction of the movie was much, much stronger than his writing. It seems like the Genies have shied away from Egoyan in recent years - and while I would admit that his recent output does not come close to his past successes, they are significantly better than some of the films they did nominate.

50 Dead Men Walking - Really? Don't get me wrong, I quite liked 50 Dead Men Walking, the IRA movie with Jim Sturgess and Ben Kingsley (who didn't get nominated, I think, because of the strange rule that foreign born actors can get nominated if the director of the is Canadian, but not if they are not - and I think Kari Skogland is Swedish, although she did get nominated). But seriously, this is one of the best films of the year? Better than Adoration, I Killed My Mother and Pontypool? I think not.

Only 3 Nominations for Pontypool? For Shame! I thought Bruce McDonald's Pontypool was one of the best zombies movies in recent memory - a brilliantly structured movie about an outbreak of the undead. While the Academy rightfully nominated McDonald for director, Tony Burgess for adapting his own novel and the brilliant Stephan McHattie for Actor, they overlooked the rest of the cast, and shockingly didn't nominate it for ANY technical awards. This should have been right up there with the big boys.

Horray for Polytechnique - The Academy at least got one thing correct. In giving Denis Villenueve's Polytechnique the most nominations, they have made it the frontrunner for the win - something I hope happens. This is the only film that I saw this year that can rival I Killed My Mother (again, idiots!) for the best Canadian film. A chilling account of the massacre at Montreal Polytechnique school in 1989, this was a short, but wonderful movie. Bravo for not being scared by the controversry that surronded that movie.

That's it for now. Watch for reviews of many of the films nominated in the coming weeks - I will see as many as possible. For now though, check out my reviews of:

Polytecnique http://davesmoviesite.blogspot.com/2009/03/movie-review-polytechnique.html

Adortion http://davesmoviesite.blogspot.com/2009/05/movie-review-adoration.html

50 Dead Men Walking http://davesmoviesite.blogspot.com/2009/07/movie-review-50-dead-men-walking.html

Pontypool http://davesmoviesite.blogspot.com/2009/03/movie-review-pontypool.html

And the criminally neglected I Killed My Mother http://davesmoviesite.blogspot.com/2010/02/movie-review-i-killed-my-mother.html

Nominations
Picture
Before Tomorrow
50 Dead Men Walking
Nurse.Fighter.Boy
Polytechnique
3 Saisons

Director
Madeline-Helene Cousineau & Madeline Piujuq Ivalu, Before Tomorrow
Bruce McDonald, Pontypool
Charles Officier, Nurse.Fighter.Boy
Kari Skogland, 50 Dead Men Walking
Denis Villenueve, Polytechnique

Actor
Jean-Carl Boucher, 1981
Paul Dylan Ivalu, Before Tomorrow
Joshua Jackson, One Week
Clark Johnson, Nurse.Fighter.Boy
Stephan McHattie, Pontypool

Actress
Madeline Piujuq Ivalu, Before Tomorrow
Karen Leblanc, Nurse.Fighter.Boy
Carinne Leduc, 3 Saisons
Gabriella Rose, Mothers & Daughters
Kariene Vanasse, Polytechnique

Supporting Actor
Patrick Drolet, Fathers & Guns
John Dunsworth, Trailer Park Boys: Countdown to Liquor Day
Maxim Gaudette, Polytechnique
Remy Giard, Fathers and Guns
Scott Speedman, Adoration

Supporting Actress
Liane Balaban, One Week
Marie Brassard, Heat Wave
Martha Burns, Love & Savagery
Isabel Richer, Babine
Sonia Vachon, 5150 Elm’s Way

Original Screenplay
Adoration – Atom Egoyan
Fathers and Guns – Emile Gaudreult & Ian Lauzon
Nurse.Fighter.Boy – Charles Officier & Ingrid Veninger
Polytechnique – Jacques Davidts
Victoria Day – David Bezmozgis

Adapted Screenplay
Before Tomorrow – Cousneau & Avingaq & Ivalu
50 Dead Men Walking – Kari Skogland
Pontypool – Tony Burgess

Art Direction
Before Tomorrow
50 Dead Men Walking
The Master Key
1981
Nurse.Fighter.Boy

Cinematography
50 Dead Men Walking
The Master Key
Nurse.Fighter.Boy
Polytechnique
Sticky Fingers

Costume Design
Before Tomorrow
Cairo Time
The Master Key
1981
Nurse.Fighter.Boy

Editing
50 Dead Men Walking
5150 Elm’s Way
The Master Key
Polytechnique
3 Saisons

Make-Up
Love & Savagery
The Master Key
1981
Polytechnique
You Might as Well Live

Original Score
50 Dead Men Walking
5150 Elm’s Way
Love & Savagery
The Master Key
Polytechnique

Original Song
Before Tomorrow – Pamani
Heat Wave – Bon Swa
Nurse.Fighter.Boy – Oh Love

Sound
Before Tomorrow
5150 Elm’s Way
Love & Savagery
The Master Key
Polytechnique

Sound Editing
Babine
5150 Elm’s Way
The Master Key
Nurse.Fighter.Boy
Polytecnhique

Documentary
A Hard Name
Inside Hanna’s Suitcase
Ladies in Blue
Prom Night in Mississippi
RIP: A Remix Manifesto

Documentary Short
The Delian Mode
Passages
Petropolis: Aerial Perspectives on the Alberta Tar Sands

Live Action Short
Danse Macabre
Gilles
Land of Men
Life Begins
Princess Margaret Blvd.

Animated Short
Runaway
The Spine
Vive La Rose

Oscar Predictions: Visual Categories

Many people ignore the visual technical categories. They are not very glamorous, have no stars, etc.. But they do affect everything that we see in the movies, and are filled with talented people.

Best Art Direction
Avatar
Odds: 2-1
For It: As the lone nominee from the Best Picture line-up, this has got to be seen as the heavy favorite. It doesn’t hurt that the interior environments, as well as Pandorum itself are visual marvels to look at.
Against It: Since most of it is done via a computer, there will be some traditionalists who may want to look elsewhere for this prize. This more often than not goes to a period film.

The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Odds: 20-1
For It: Terry Gilliam’s films always create unique environments for the movies to take place in. This one contrasts the dark, dirty streets with imaginative environments inside the characters minds.
Against It: Few saw this film, and even fewer truly embraced it. Art Direction usually goes to a period movie, and I doubt that the voters who want to change that are going to vote for this instead of Avatar.

Nine
Odds: 10-1
For It: Recreating the Italy of Fellini films of the 1960s with flair and panache. The “real” environments and the “stage” environments thing worked very well for Marshall’s Chicago, which won this prize.
Against It: Nine is not Chicago, and it not likely to win much of anything, since it was clearly a disappointment.

Sherlock Holmes
Odds: 15-1
For It: Recreated the Holmes era of England with style to spare, with many distinctive settings for the actors to move around in.
Against It: The film wasn’t very well liked by the Academy. Period pieces win here, but mainly the austere, prestige kind – not the period action film which this is. Camera moves be so quick, as well as the editing, never really lets you focus on the sets.

The Young Victoria
Odds: 4-1
For It: The type of film that usually wins this category, as here we have royalty moving among their castles, and their mansions, with a lot of slow, gentle camera work to allow you time to swoon all over the environments. It doesn’t hurt that the film itself can be kind of dull, so looking at the surroundings is often more interesting than listening the characters talk. Being a Best Picture nominee isn’t a must for this category.
Against It: But it does seem like being a film that the Academy quite liked is. The Young Victoria got shut out of the major categories, and doesn’t have anywhere near the support of Avatar, which also will likely not split its vote like The Young Victoria may with the other period films.

Who Will Win: Avatar really does need this award if it’s going to challenge for the Best Picture Oscar. Since I think it will do that, I think that it will win this one as well.

Who Should Win: Inglorious Basterds has far and away the best art direction of the year. Wait, they didn’t nominate it? Idiots. Oh well, then give to A Serious Man instead. What, still no nomination, Okay, District 9. Again, no nomination? Fantastic Mr. Fox? Public Enemies? No and No? Jesus, okay then just give the damn thing to Avatar.

Least of the Nominees: This is a rather dull slate for me. Sherlock Holmes is probably my least favorite here, but ask me on another day I might say Dr. Parnassus or even The Young Victoria instead.

Best Cinematography
Avatar – Mauro Fiore
Odds: 4-1
For It: It is the most visually stunning film of the year, and the outdoor vistas, and the exciting camera work on the action sequences make this seem like it could be win this award.
Against It: There are many who still think that this whole movie was put together by a computer. I wonder if a lot of them won’t want to go to something where the cinematographer actually shot what we saw on screen.

Inglourious Basterds – Robert Richardson
Odds: 5-1
For It: It has the epic feel of many previous winners. Robert Richardson has won several times in the past, and he certainly gives the film a distinct look all of its own.
Against It: WWII photography? Been there, rewarded that. They have gone a little more exciting (read quick) in the past few years, and there is no need to give Richardson another award.

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – Bruno Delbonnel
Odds: 25-1
For It: Delbonnel is certainly a well regarded cinematographer, and his work on the sixth Harry Potter film is dark, moody and wonderful. Many do love this series.
Against It: But they don’t seem to be in the Academy, as the film hasn’t really done all that well here. This was a surprising nominee, and if they want to give to a film loaded with special effects, then they’ll go with Avatar.

The Hurt Locker – Barry Ackroyd
Odds: 3-1
For It: It has the most exciting visual feel of any of the movies here. The look of film, with all its sun burnt colors, and exciting camera work adds to the experience more than most of the other nominees.
Against It: But is it the camera work or the editing that is truly special for this film? Those who prefer longer shots, will likely go elsewhere.

The White Ribbon – Christen Berger
Odds: 10-1
For It: People do love black and white photography, and Christen Berger’s work is one of the most praised elements of this critical favorite. It has the feel of a classic movie. The surprise win at the ASC helps.
Against It: But it’s in German, and the least seen of the nominees. The movie will likely get its award in foreign language, meaning there is no need to give it another Oscar. The ASC is made up of only cinematographers - who wet themselves every time a movie is made in black and white.

Who Will Win: I think it’s a tight three way race between Hurt, Avatar and Basterds, but I think that The Hurt Locker pulls this one out.

Who Should Win: For me, The White Ribbon had more memorable shots and compositions than any of the other nominees, and it is my clear favorite.

Least of the Nominees: I like the Harry Potter movies as much as the next guy, but it is nowhere near Academy Award level in this category.

Best Costume Design
Bright Star
Odds: 3-1
For It: The costumes in the film are beautiful, and are of the period that the Academy often goes for. Since the movie’s main character “designs” the costume herself, and there is quite a bit of dialogue devoted to talking it about them, it ensures that they are not far from the viewer’s memory. This movie had quite a lot of fans, although it didn’t translate into many Oscar nominations.
Against It: Could that be because the fans weren’t in the Academy? If they want to give to a movie about a designer, there is a much more iconic one in the competition.

Coco Before Chanel
Odds: 5-1
For It: That iconic designer I just talked about. It’s Coco Chanel. Like Bright Star, there is a lot of talk about fashion and clothes in this movie, and the costume do look great throughout. It is a period piece, which helps as well.
Against It: Not as popular with critics as some of the other ones, this one runs the risk of being overlooked as it is a French film. Some may foolishly think that all they did was copy Coco’s designs.

The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Odds: 15-1
For It: The film has a number of outlandish fantasy costumes that certainly do draw your attention while watching the film. The varied work on the film could impress Academy members, and the costumes really do fit the film.
Against It: They are somewhat biased against fantasy films, even in this category. The film never really caught on with audiences, or critics, and runs the risk of being overlooked.

Nine
Odds: 7-1
For It: Great costumes which recreated the Fellini films, and added a sexy element. All the beautiful women in the film at one point or another role around on the ground nearly naked in this movie. A film once thought to be an Oscar frontrunner, it died in most categories, but hung on here.
Against It: Despite being the highest grossing film nominated here, the film was still not a hit with either audiences or critics. It is the highest profile bomb in this category.

The Young Victoria
Odds: 4-1
For It: They do love to celebrate old fashioned English royalty in this category, and the costumes are meticulously put together, and add to the period detail.
Against It: The film never really took off with audiences or critics – many of whom found it far too dull for its own good. If they fall asleep during the film, they likely won’t vote for it.

Who Will Win: An interesting category, as none of these are Best Picture nominees, and none of them were hits with audiences either. I think that the goodwill felt towards Bright Star – which a lot of people loved – will push this one over the top for the win – although I could see Coco, Nine or Victoria taking it as well.

Who Should Win: Once again, my favorites – Where the Wild Things Are, Inglorious Basterds and Public Enemies were shamefully overlooked. Out of this field, I’ll go with Bright Star.

Least of the Nominees: I have seen the types of costumes that Gilliam’s Doctor Parnassus has used before. Sometimes simply being garish is enough to get nominated, but for me, it wasn’t enough for me to actually think them worthy.

Best Film Editing
Avatar
Odds: 4-1
For It: The action sequences are masterfully handled by the editors here – as is usually the case with Cameron’s films, which have won this award in the past. The movie is nearly three hours, but it flows effortlessly. Even those who may inclined to vote against this in other categories, because it was all done on computer, would have a hard time justifying that excuse for this category.
Against It: Perhaps simply because Cameron’s films have won this award in the past, they will not look upon this work quite as favorably. Plus, there is a lot of competition out there.

District 9
Odds: 10-1
For It: This is a real editors showcase – moving from the documentary like cuts in the films first part, into full on action movie mode in the final reel – and pulling off both brilliantly well.
Against It: Those looking to reward science fiction will go with Avatar. Those who like action will go with The Hurt Locker. Will there be anyone left to vote for this one?

The Hurt Locker
Odds: 3-1
For It: Those jittery, intense action sequences are a master class in film editing. There is rapid cutting like a Michael Bay movie, but actually used properly, to heighten the intensity, while still never getting confusing. Really difficult to pull off.
Against It: Considering that a Bourne movie won this two years ago, and Slumdog won last year, this may feel like they are rewarding the same type of thing over and over again. Plus, there is some strong competition.

Inglourious Basterds
Odds: 5-1
For It: For keeping a two and half hour long talk fest moving as rapidly as this one does, the editing deserves a lot of credit. Each “chapter” is pretty much perfectly cut together – none of them becoming so long that they take over the movie, and all moving well. That’s a hard thing to pull off.
Against It: It isn’t as flashy as either The Hurt Locker or Avatar. When the Academy gets together and votes on this one, they usually like to see all the edits around – something that isn’t quite as obvious here.

Precious
Odds: 8-1
For It: A much loved film that really does need to pick up some other awards if it’s going to stay in the big race. The editing here is spot on, and helps the movie keep moving along at a good pace.
Against It: Far and away, the least flashy one here, which pretty much, dooms its chances. The usually like to give this one to war or action movies, unless a film is going to sweep – and Precious won’t be doing that.

Who Will Win: A tight race, with Avatar and Inglorious Basterds nipping at The Hurt Locker’s heels – but I think the war film holds onto this one.

Who Should Win: As much as I loved the worked on Basterds, even I have to admit that no one really gives The Hurt Locker a run for its money this year.

Least of the Nominees: Sorry Precious, but you are just now where close to the other films nominated – and many that weren’t – this year.

Best Makeup
Il Divo
Odds: 15-1
For It: The Academy sometimes goes for realism in this category – and this Italian movies has that in droves, with all the different political figures it helps to recreate here. It stayed in this race despite having almost no buzz at all around it.
Against It: Which is its problem. You know everyone in the Academy has seen Star Trek by now. But how many have actually seen this movie? If they are looking for realistic movie, there is another one nominated.

Star Trek
Odds: Even
For It: It recreates iconic characters from the TV show, but never really feels like it is simply repeating what came before it. Lots of work here, and it’s all noticeable – a good thing for the Academy. The film has a lot of fans which will want to see this win SOMETHING.
Against It: Many of these designs DID exist before the movie was made, and it was a matter of recreating it. Might not seem as impressive to some Academy members.

The Young VIctoria
Odds: 6-1
For It: The Academy does often embrace fantasy, but they are just as likely to award a highly regarded costume drama, which uses it makeup to help recreate an era – and The Young Victoria falls into that category.
Against It: It isn’t quite as highly regarded as it would have liked to be. Many find the film dull, and if they do, I doubt they’ll vote for it.

Who Will Win: I really don’t think Star Trek has to worry about the other two films beating it this year.

Who Should Win: District 9. But since they’re idiots, I’ll go with Star Trek.

Least of the Nominees: The Young Victoria has a lot of fine work. But that’s just what it is – fine, not great.

Best Visual Effects
Avatar
Odds: Even
For It: Groundbreaking work that completely and totally pushes special effects into the next generation. These types of films are few and far between.
Against It: Nothing.

District 9
Odds: 10-1
For It: If they want more organic feeling special effects, than District 9 is the film to go for. A popular film – hence the nomination – it isn’t winning elsewhere.
Against It: And it ain’t winning here either. Great work, but it isn’t groundbreaking.

Star Trek
Odds: 20-1
For It: The special effects helped make this feel more like a movie, and less like a TV show.
Against It: Again, this isn’t Avatar. The special effects were fine, but not close to Avatar.

Who Will Win: Avatar by a mile.

Who Should Win: Again, Avatar by a mile.

Least of the Nominees: Star Trek is clearly the weakest, even though it is very strong work.

Oscar Predictions! Aural Categories

Over the next four days, I will do seven posts listing the odds on every nominee in every category. Today I will start with the “aural” technical awards, then the “visual” technical awards. The aural ones represent everything we hear in the course of the movie. This year there are some tight races. If you want to win your office Oscar pool, you have to pay attention here.

Best Music (Original Score)
Avatar – James Horner
Odds: 5-1
For It: The last time Horner teamed up with James Cameron, the result was the iconic Titanic score, which won him an Oscar. His work on Avatar is very strong, and he hits the right rising crescendo moments in the big action scenes that the Academy loves to reward. If Avatar is looking to sweep, this could be a signifier that it is going to happen. Horner has a long track record with Oscar, stretching back more than 20 years, and he is on his 10th nomination.
Against It: The music IS NOT anywhere near as iconic or instantly recognizable as Titanic was. He won two for Titanic (also song), so there is no need to reward him again. Plus, he faces some very stiff competition here. He didn’t even win this at the Globes, which was an Avatar love fest. The score has been criticized by some who here a lot of Horner’s previous work mixed throughout.

Fantastic Mr. Fox – Alexandre Desplat
Odds: 10-1
For It: Desplat has become an Academy favorite in recent years – this is his third nomination in 4 years, but he has yet to actually win the top prize. He had a very busy 2009 – also composing well regarded scores for Coco Avant Chanel, Cheri, A Prophet, Julie & Julia and Twilight: New Moon. He was one of the best composers out there, and his work on Fantastic Mr. Fox ranks among his best – playful and memorable throughout. For some, it will be his time.
Against It: But he has four new scores coming out in 2010, for movies more suited to the Academy’s tastes. Yes, the music here is brilliant and playful, but since when do they go for that? I doubt that this really is Desplat’s year.

The Hurt Locker – Marco Beltrami & Buck Sanders
Odds: 9-1
For It: The movie is on a role, and looking to win as many Oscars as possible. The music here contributes the complex sound scapes created in the movie. Beltrami broke through 2 years ago with his score for 3:10 to Yuma, so he’s now a member of the club, and his frequent collaborator (although this is the first time they have shared credit), Sanders is an up and comer.
Against It: Wasn’t pretty much everyone surprised by this nomination? Can you tell me what the score even sounds like at all without listening to it by itself? The score brilliantly fit the movie – but I doubt it is memorable enough to actually win this prize.

Sherlock Holmes – Hans Zimmer
Odds: 8-1
For It: Zimmer is an old hat at this game by now – getting his first of 8 Oscar nominations more than 20 years ago. He hasn’t been nominated in a while (his last was for Gladiator in 2000), but he is well respected. The Sherlock Holmes score is well suited to the material, and really noticeable, which always helps.
Against It: He has won before, so there is no real rush to reward him again. It is not always the case, but most of the time they do like to give the Score Oscar to a movie they really liked, and considering the lack of nominations for this movie, this isn’t one.

Up – Michael Giacchino
Odds: Even
For It: Giacchino has been doing some great work for years now, although it took until 2007’s Ratatouille for the Academy to notice (I still remember the outrage when his brilliant work for The Incredibles wasn’t nominated in 2004). Now on his second nomination, his time has come. It helps that his score is the most recognizable of the bunch – and hits all the right notes in this movie from sadness to adventure. And his highly praised work on this year’s Star Trek won’t hurt either.
Against It: Not much, except they have never given the score Oscar to a film by Pixar, no matter how brilliant the work is.

Who Will Win: I think Giacchino’s Up really has this one sewn up.

Who Should Win: Up is the best score of the year – hands down.

Least of the Nominees: It infuriates me that the Academy ignored one Carter Burwell score (A Serious Man) and disqualified another (Where the Wild Things Are) for something as formulaic as Zimmer’s score for Sherlock Holmes.

Best Music (Original Song)
Crazy Heart – The Weary Kind
Odds: 2-1
For It: The song is really a part of the movie, as we hear snippets of it throughout as Jeff Bridges character writes it. When we finally hear the entire song, it is a pure country classic full of sadness and beauty. A true stunner of the song and the only one here that works outside of its movie.
Against It: The Academy often likes to go for songs from animated films, or musicals, and both are nominated here. The choices they have made are often rather suspect.

Nine - Take it All
Odds: 6-1
For It: The emotional high point of the film is this new song for the classic musical, a burlesque inspired number where Marion Cottilard gets out all her rage on her husband. It is the closest thing this movie has to a show stopper.
Against It: All throughout the season, the song was ignored for the more upbeat Cinema Italiano from the movie (for reasons that remain a mystery to me). The Academy obviously didn’t respond too much to the number – or else Cottilard would have been nominated instead of Cruz (which she should have been!).

Paris 36 - Loin de Paname
Odds: 25-1
For It: They have gone for songs from Foreign Language films a few times in the last decade. This old school movie is like a warm blanket to older members of the Academy – who often vote en masse.
Against It: Quick, sing a few bars from the song? Can’t do it, can you? Did anyone see this movie?

The Princess and the Frog - Almost There
Odds: 5-1
For It: An inspiring song, sung by the movie heroine talking about her dreams, and how she is so close to achieving them. For a few minutes anyway, the film resembled a true Disney classic.
Against It: Internal competition is going to hurt the song. I think it’s clearly the better song of the two, but opinion on that matter seems to vary.

The Princess and the Frog - Down in New Orleans
Odds: 7-1
For It: A bluesy song that is an ode to the great city of New Orleans – which is still on everyone’s mind. Can tug at the heartstrings if you let it.
Against It: Unlike Almost There, this is not as well incorporated into the narrative of the film – instead it plays over the action, not a part of it, and that could hurt. As well, without a clear cut choice for this film, vote splitting will hurt.

Will Win: I think The Weary Kind, which has marched through this season, will likely take this award as well.

Should Win: The Weary Kind is one of my favorite songs from 2009 – whether as part of a movie or not.

Least of the Nominees: Loin de Paname. Again, I ask, can you hum a few bars? I’m not even sure what one of the forgettable songs in the movie this one was.

Best Sound Editing
Avatar
Odds: 2-1
For It: The movie is incredibly LOUD, which is usually a good thing for this category – as they like action and science fiction. All the effects created for this movie are unique to the movie itself. They have done a good job at getting the word of how much work went into this out there.
Against It: If Avatar isn’t going to sweep, then this could go to another film. There are other films out there that could sneak in.

The Hurt Locker
Odds: 4-1
For It: If The Hurt Locker is going to sweep this award could help. The incredibly dense sound scapes for the film really help it.
Against It: Perhaps not as much sound effects work – or at least original sounding sound effects work – to truly win this award.

Inglourious Basterds
Odds: 7-1
For It: Some very memorable work – remember the sound of that baseball hat hitting the wall – scary. Obviously a well liked film, and if Harvey really wants this film to win, then he should try and get the word out about all the categories it’s nominated in.
Against It: Which he hasn’t done. Probably the least noticeable in terms of original sound effects, this one probably will not take it.

Star Trek
Odds: 10-1
For It: They do love science fiction and action movies, and this movie is that and has a lot of work in this area.
Against It: But won’t they go for Avatar if they want to reward a film in this genre?

Up
Odds: 15-1
For It: Pixar is a favorite in this category, always being nominated and sometimes winning. Animation does really well here.
Against It: Compared to the work on something like Wall-E, this one seems easy by comparison. The lack of a sound mixing nomination hurts.

Will Win: I think that Avatar walks away with this one, unless they really decide to embrace The Hurt Locker.

Should Win: It is hard to argue against Avatar here.

Least of the Nominees: Tough to say, as this really is a strong line-up. Toss a coin, heads its Star Trek, tails its Up.

Best Sound Mixing
Avatar
Odds: 4-1
For It: The entire sound mix of the film here is dense, and memorable. This is more than just a visually exciting film – it’s also an aurally exciting one.
Against It: But with all those visuals overwhelming the senses, it is easy to forget about the sound.

The Hurt Locker
Odds: 3-1
For It: Dense sound scapes make up the film. The sound really does help make this an edge of your seat film.
Against It: Avatar is getting the word out about the sound of its film. Is The Hurt Locker?

Inglourious Basterds
Odds: 6-1
For It: An incredibly complex mix, with lots of languages, music, explosions and gunfire fighting for your attention, but each one is perfectly played.
Against It: Not as loud or as noticeable as the other nominees, and that will hurt it.

Star Trek
Odds: 10-1
For It: They do love science fiction sound, and this one contains a lot of it.
Against It: Again, if they want to reward that, they’ll go with Avatar.

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Odds: 20-1
For It: The sound was the one thing consistently praised about this horrible film. There certainly is a lot of work put into this one.
Against It: They hate the movie, which will hurt. No Sound Editing nomination (surprising) also hurts. This isn’t going to happen.

Who Will Win: I think The Hurt Locker just may pull this one out.

Who Should Win: It really is tough to argue against Avatar, but I think I might go with The Hurt Locker.

Least of the Nominees: Star Trek is clearly the weakest, even though it is very strong work.

2010 Live Action Short Oscar Nominees

Last week, I saw the animated shorts that are nominated for the Oscars this year, and had a highly enjoyable time at the movies. This weekend, I went to see the Live Action shorts, and hoped to have a similar experience – and ended up quite disappointed. Out of the five films in the program, I really only enjoyed two, was lukewarm on another, and didn’t like two at all. Last year’s group of nominees contained at least two films better than anything this year.

The Door **
Directed By: Juanita Wilson.

This year’s odds on favorite to win the Oscar, was for me the most frustrating film in the lot. It opens with a sequence of a man running through an abandoned city to break into an apartment and steal a door, with a police officer on his trail. This opening sequence is effective, as we are not sure why the man is doing this. However, once we flash back in time and see the beginning of the story, it becomes immediately clear what is happening in this short, although the filmmakers try mightily to keep it a secret until the closing scenes of the film – which struck me as a rather lame attempt to milk tears from the audience. The film is well made and well acted – that much cannot be denied – but I was disappointed that after such a promising beginning, the film did the most obvious thing imaginable for its closing scenes. Yes, I think it will win the Oscar. No, I don’t think it should.

Instead of Abracadabra ** ½
Directed By: Patrik Eklund.

The Swedish film, Instead of Abracadabra owes a large debt to Napoleon Dynamite, and your patience and enjoyment of this film will certainly hinge on how much you liked that one. I hated Napoleon Dynamite with a passion, but even I have to admit that there were some highly enjoyable moments in this comedy about an inept magician, 25 and still living at home with his parents. The movie is not quite as mean to its characters as Napoleon was – there is even a sort of affection for its main character (who is played very well by the actor) – but overall this type of comedy is really just not my thing. There are a few moments that are quite funny, but overall, I found this movie – even at only 22 minutes long – dragged a little bit too much.

Kavi **
Directed By: Gregg Helvey

This film set in India really does try to tug on your heartstrings – and for me they tried too hard, and the result was me resisting the film. The film is about a young boy in India who wishes he could go to school and play cricket, but is instead stuck working at a kiln alongside his mother and father. His father owes the evil owner of the kiln money, so the family is essentially slaves – not ever allowed to leave the kiln, and working doggedly day in and day out. Two social workers watch the kiln, and want to get it shut down, but no one much seems to care. The problem with the film – for me anyway – is that it seemed rather disjointed, first starting with Kavi raising a plant that he calls the farm, then essentially abandoning that, then showing him make a deal with his boss to play cricket, then abandoning that to move onto the social workers. In a short, it is more important than ever to maintain the focus of the movie throughout – and Kavi does not do that. What should have been a powerful little film instead becomes disjointed, and doesn’t have the impact it should as a result.

Miracle Fish *** ½
Directed By: Luke Doolan.

Luke Doolan’s Australian film was far and away my favorite of the five nominees. The film is about a poor boy dropped off at school by his mother on his birthday. He is picked on by his classmates – and the gift his father, who is in the hospital, got him is mocked. It is one of those cheap rubbery fishes, than are supposed to move around in your hand and tell your mood. Upset, he goes to the nurses’ station to lie down, and when he wakes up, the school is deserted. He does the things that he always wanted to do, but there is something obviously wrong with the situation – highlighted by a bloody handprint on the back of one of the doors. Miracle Fish is all about tone and mood, and it does a wonderful job establishing its uneasy feel early in the film, and sustains it throughout. The ending may not quite work – I feel the film needed a more shocking climax – but this was easily the best made of the films. Unlike The Door, which holds back information from the audience, this one does not feel like a cheat.

The New Tenants ***
Directed By: Joachim Back.

The second best film in the program was Joachim Back’s The New Tenants, a surrealistic, black comedy about two gay men who have recently moved into an apartment. The movie starts with a long rant by one of them about the evils of the world (too long, if you ask me), before the first of several visitors knock on their door. This is an old lady who lives in the building who wants to borrow some flour. They find a bag, of what looks like flour (but we guess it isn’t), and give it to the old lady. Soon, more and more people keep knocking on that door, and bodies start to pile up. This is the one film with recognizable actors in it – Vincent D’Onofrio and Kevin Corrigan are among the visitors – and it is far and away the best acted film of the bunch, and also contains the most memorable dialogue. However, as much as I enjoyed the film, it does tend to repeat itself a little, and the strange ending – complete with a recipe of sticky buns – doesn’t quite work. Still, this is a very enjoyable short.

Movie Review: Cop Out

Cop Out * ½
Directed By: Kevin Smith.
Written By: Robb & Mark Cullen.
Starring: Bruce Willis (Jimmy Monroe), Tracy Morgan (Paul Hodges), Seann William Scott (Dave), Cory Fernandez (Juan), Sean Cullen (Captain Romans), Kevin Pollak (Hunsaker), Adam Brody (Barry Mangold), Guillermo Díaz (Poh Boy), Michelle Trachtenberg (Ava), Rashida Jones (Debbie), Jason Lee (Roy), Francie Swift (Pam).

Kevin Smith has always been a better writer than director. His writing style, although as filled with fart and dick jokes as any big Hollywood comedy, has always been distinctive to him. In short, you can tell a Kevin Smith dick joke from anyone else’s. He has also always been able to create real characters – characters you actually care about – in between all those jokes. As a director, he isn’t bad – but he isn’t great either. He has a point and shoot style that I have always felt worked for his movies as well as any other style would have. Besides, I am usually too busy laughing to care much how he shot the movies.

Smith didn’t write his new film Cop Out, and you can tell. The film at times plays like something trying to copy Smith’s writing style – minus all the dick jokes as there are precious few here – and not quite getting it right. The characters are cookie cutter creations – nothing really defines them beyond what the screenplay requires of them. And as a director Smith just isn’t quite able to pull it all off. Between all the jokes are action sequences that do not work. In short, Cop Out is a mess.

The movie is about two cops who have been partners for 9 years. Jimmy (Bruce Willis) is a veteran – gruff, intractable and willing to do anything to get results. Paul (Tracy Morgan) seems less experienced (although since he has been partners for 9 years with Jimmy, he shouldn’t), and more all over the map – a bumbling idiot in short. When Jimmy needs to pay for his daughter’s wedding, he goes to sell his prized baseball card – worth upwards of $80,000 – but ends up in the middle of a robbery at the card store, and loses it. So they go and try and track down the card – taking them deeper and deeper into the drug trade.

Willis seems bored in the movie. I know that he is trying for a deadpan comic tone in the film – but aside a few isolated incidents, he doesn’t get that tone down correctly. After so many cop movies, he should be perfect at this – sending up his screen image like Robert DeNiro in Analyze This or Marlon Brando in The Freshman. But he doesn’t get it right. Morgan on the other hand is both the films greatest asset, and its biggest liability. No, you do not believe for a second that this bumbling idiot could be a cop for as long as he has, and risen through the ranks as much as he has. Morgan plays the character as a not too distant relative from his clueless celebrity on 30 Rock (on which, Morgan is brilliant). Yet once I realized that Morgan’s performance is completely wrong for the character, and just sort of rolled with it, I quite enjoyed him. Let it not be said that Morgan is not a funny actor – he is, and in moments he is hilarious here – particularly when he is arguing with the great Seann William Scott (another highlight roll as parkour enthusiast and thief). Kevin Pollack and Adam Brody have a few nice moments as well as a sort of rival partnership to Willis and Morgan. And Jason Lee can play his asshole character in his sleep, but doesn’t here, and also rings a few chuckles out of his character.

The problem with the movie is that the moments that work is so few and far between – separated by long periods where absolutely nothing on screen works at all. The movie never builds any comic momentum, as there is so much crap in it. The Mexican gangsters in the film are all one dimensional and played like cartoon caricatures and not real people. Worse still, they are never even funny.

Smith has said that it is getting harder for him to get his own movies made, and I believe him. It seems like it isn’t really the small movies that are getting shut out in Hollywood these days – there are dozens of indies released every year – but the middle sized movies. The ones that Smith made for $10 million that turned a nice little profit but not much else. So I do understand why he jumped at the opportunity to make a big studio movie with a major star like Willis. And judging on the opening weekend box office, Smith will have the biggest hit of his career with this film. Hopefully what that means is that Smith will be able to get one of his own movies made. If he doesn’t, than he made Cop Out for no reason.