The
Oscar season is finally coming to an end this Sunday, when the awards will be
given out. The season has both felt longer than normal – the Olympics pushed
them back a week – and surprisingly more civil than most. There was a major
backlash against Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri – but that was
grounded in real complaints about the movie (I don’t share them, but I
understand them) and less like people trying to dethrone an Oscar frontrunner.
So, here we go – an epic post on what will win, what should win, and why for
this Sunday – for everything except the shorts, which I didn’t see, so I didn’t
predict.
Best Picture
9. The Post
For It: For a certain, old school
voter, The Post hits the sweet spot of smart, adult entertainment, delivered
with polish by a legendary director, and two great stars, ably supported by a
great cast. The film is backwards looking, and yet timely – and is quietly becoming
a box office hit.
Against It: With only two nominations
total, this just isn’t Spielberg’s year. Most of the other films in the running
have higher passion fan bases, so they’ll get the number one votes to hang
around a little longer than The Post. After an up-and-down season for the film,
the nomination is the win.
8. Call Me by Your Name
For It: It has a highly passionate
fan base behind it, and is probably winning one of the two screenplay awards –
usually a good sign. The younger branch of the Academy, that they’ve cultivated
the last few years, could push it higher.
Against It: That fan base has other
things they can vote for, and the screenplay win is almost by default, as there
is not much else in the Adapted Screenplay running. Overall, support for the
film could have been stronger – it picked up just four nominations total,
leaving out two great supporting performances, and any number of tech prizes,
that you would think it would have gotten nominated for if this was going to
win – not to mention no director nominated.
7. Darkest Hour
For It: All those old school fans
who in another year may vote for The Post, could flock here – to a similarly
old school film, with broader support. The total of 6 nominations was more than
expected – the film was seen as a play for Oldman alone heading into the
nominations, but the tech awards show broader support.
Against It: If the film had real broad
supporting, the director, screenplay or a supporting performance would have
broken through – it didn’t. I have a feeling the campaign behind the movie will
do its best to make sure Oldman doesn’t slip out of frontrunner status, and let
the film itself be an also ran.
6. Phantom Thread
For It: The film clearly has some
very passionate fans in the Academy – who gave it a much stronger show of
support than expected, pushing it into the Best Picture, Director and
Supporting Actress lineups, alongside expected noms for Best Actor, Score and
Costumes. Those who love it, really love it – meaning a lot of number 1 votes
will be coming its way.
Against It: The film is clearly not
for everyone – and leaves as many people cold as those it charms. In a ranked
ballot, you need consensus more than passion at a certain point – and I just
don’t think the film has that consensus.
5. Dunkirk
For It: The early frontrunner, the
film is a certified box office hit, a critical hit and finally a film from
Christopher Nolan, a beloved director, that the Academy can truly embrace
(hence his first director nod). The Academy loves a war film – roughly one per
decade wins, and it hasn’t happened since 2009, so perhaps it’s due.
Against It: While it showed up as a
nominee everywhere, it didn’t actually win very much. It will likely win a
number of tech prizes, and Nolan is a (very) dark horse directing candidate,
but I just have a hard time seeing the film pull this out. No film since Grand
Hotel in 1932 (!) has won without an actor or screenplay nominated – and while
I normally don’t put too much stock in those stats, that is a doozy.
4. Lady Bird
For It: A truly beloved film, it’s
been able to ride high all Oscar season, and has not even really generated any
sort of backlash – which is easier said than done. It has the passionate fan
based that will keep it high in the earlier rounds of the ranked ballot, and
the consensus that could push it across the finish line. In the year of #MeToo,
having a female directed film win would look good. The first of four films that
I think has a real shot of winning this thing.
Against It: It’s hard seeing this win
anything else – it’s not the frontrunner for Original Screenplay, Supporting
Actress, Actress or Director, and while it has a shot at all of those, it’s not
a good shot. It’s not wise to bet on a film to win Best Picture and nothing
else (something that hasn’t happened since, wait for it, Grand Hotel in 1932!).
3. Three Billboards
Outside Ebbing, Missouri
For It: The film is the
frontrunner for Actress, Supporting Actor and could easily win Original
Screenplay – and has some of the precursor support (Golden Globe for Best
Picture, SAG Ensemble award) that you usually see a best picture winner have.
It’s become a critical hit, and a decent commercial one for a small film, and
in a year of #MeToo, the righteous female anger of Frances McDormand’s
character rings true.
Against It: It has clearly become the
most controversial contender of the year, with the biggest backlash – which
means it could place down the rankings for some Academy members, making
consensus harder. Martin McDonagh didn’t get nominated for Best Director – and
while Argo showed that may not be necessary in the ranked ballot era, it
certainly doesn’t help. If Get Out or Lady Bird can pass it for Original
Screenplay, watch out.
2. The Shape of Water
For It: It has the most
nominations by a large margin with 13 – showing across the board support, from
the tech branches, to writers to actors in a way that no other film in the
running can claim. It won the PGA award – one of the only precursors to use a
ranked ballot like the Academy. It has the old fashioned trappings that older
members, but is cool enough for the younger members. In the new era, you need
consensus, and this may be the safest bet.
Against It: We all realize that the
film is about a woman who falls in love with a fishman monster, right? It looks
like a prestige drama, but the subject matter will turn some off – as will the
genre trappings, that the Academy usually does not embrace.
1. Get Out
For It: It’s run a long distance
race since last February, become a bona fide box office smash, the film of the
year according to critics, and the timeliest one of the year. It had to
overcome genre bias all the way through the season. If there’s a backlash
against the film, it’s a small one.
Against It: It is a horror film, and
those usually do not win Oscars. It’s also a very small film in terms of budget
for Oscar as well. If it was making a real push, I would have expected to see
it show up in Editing at the very least – and it didn’t. It isn’t the
frontrunner in any of the categories it’s nominated, except maybe – Original
Screenplay, but I’m not convinced it will pull it off. Like Lady Bird, it isn’t
wise to bet on a film to win Best Picture, and nothing else.
Will Win: This is the most wide open
race in years – with any of the top four being very real possibilities. In such
a fractured year, it’s probably best to go with the safest choice which is The
Shape of Water. But why do a feeling
that this isn’t going to happen – and specifically that Get Out will Spotlight in winning Screenplay and Picture and
nothing else. It doesn’t make much sense, and yet, that’s my call. I’ve gone
with the safer choice of The Revenant and La La Land the last two years,
despite my nagging doubts at the time. This year, I’m going ith those doubts
(which is probably the surest sign that I’ll be wrong).
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson’s Phantom Thread was my favorite film of
the year, so meticulously crafted, and yet so open and raw. It is a masterpiece
– and clearly the best film of a strong list of nominees.
Least of the Nominees: So strong in fact that the weakest nominee is still
a film I quite liked – Darkest Hour – which
is a fine, if somewhat straight forward and middle brow period pic. Its fine,
but I would gladly watch any of the other 8 nominees again before it.
Director
5. Paul Thomas Anderson,
Phantom Thread
For Him: He is the only nominee
this year to have previously been nominated for Best Director – so if anyone is
“overdue”, it’s him. Phantom Thread is the most meticulously crafted film of
the year – those who love it, wouldn’t dream of voting for anyone else.
Against Him: Surprise nominees – and
Anderson was a surprise – rarely pull off the victory. The other films have
broader support, and fanbases who are just as passionate. I have a feeling that
we’ll be talking about how ridiculous it is that Anderson has no Oscars for
years to come.
4. Christopher Nolan,
Dunkirk
For Him: I’m not sure that any
current director has a fan base as avid as Nolan, who view him as the next coming
of Kubrick. Dunkirk is such a monumental technical achievement that he could
draw Best Director votes from those voting for something else for Best Picture.
Yes, it’s his first Director nomination – but he is one of the biggest
directors working, so some will say he’s overdue.
Against Him: Dunkirk got off to a hot
start this summer, but cooled considerably once the season got underway. While
Nolan’s fans are avid, I wonder how many of them are in the Academy. You would
think he would need some precursor support if he was going to win – and he
hasn’t gotten it.
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
For Her: Lady Bird is truly
beloved, and given how this year has gone, a woman winning the Best Director
Oscar for only the second time really would cap things off nicely. If the film
is really going to make a push to win Best Picture – a possibility – she really
does need to make a show of it here.
Against Her: Her direction isn’t as
“flashy” as the other nominees (that doesn’t mean it isn’t as good, but it
doesn’t call as much attention to itself) – and they usually like it when that
directors do that. Lady Bird has a chance to win Best Picture, sure, but it’s a
longer shot – and still, probably a better chance than Gerwig does actually
winning Director.
2. Jordan Peele, Get Out
For Him: He has made the most
critically acclaimed film of the year, which is a triumph both of his writing
and directing. Since they may want to honor McDonagh and Peele, and they have
to do that with McDonagh in Original Screenplay, Peele could get a boost here
for director. In recent years, two films directed by black filmmakers have won
the Best Picture Oscar, but so far none have won Best Director. If they want to
make history, here’s their chance.
Against Him: Genre bias could hurt him
(although, The Shape of Water is essentially a horror film too, so perhaps not
too much). Typically, a Best Director win is accompanied by some tech award
wins – and Get Out didn’t get in there. I could see the film squeezing out a
victory for Best Picture easier than I can see Peele win here – although it’s
possible.
1. Guillermo del Toro, The
Shape of Water
For Him: Guillermo del Toro is a well-respected
veteran filmmaker, who has been making films for 25 years, and finally got
himself into the big categories (he came close with Pan’s Labyrinth, but didn’t
get the big ones). His film is visually stunning, and has the kind of prestige
gloss that they like. Even if The Shape of Water falters down the stretch, and
doesn’t win Best Picture, it’s likely to win the most awards of the night – and
del Toro should easily get swept in as well.
Against Him: Again, this is a film
about a woman falling in love with a fish monster – which isn’t typical Oscar
bait, and could turn some people off. The outside, political factors may well
favor two of his fellow nominees.
Will Win: I think Guillermo del Toro wins this one, even
if the film doesn’t end up with the Best Picture trophy, but Peele and Gerwig
are lurking.
Should Win: Paul Thomas
Anderson really
is at the top of his game with Phantom Thread – you know you’re in the hands of
a master from the opening frames. He’s also the best filmmaker working today,
and has zero Oscars at home.
Least of the Nominees: This is an absurdly good group of nominees, and I
really don’t want to pick any of them. I guess, if forced, I’d say Guillermo del Toro is the weakest, but
it pains me so much I’d rather abstain.
Lead Actor
5. Denzel Washington,
Roman J. Israel, Esq.
For Him: He’s Denzel Washington,
and they clearly love him – he got his eighth nomination for a film that wasn’t
critically loved, or a box office hit. He was close to winning his third last
year for Fences, but came up just short, so payback?
Against Him: No one really likes the
film, even if they admire the performance. His nomination is in part because of
a weak field, and in part because the performance is so unlike anything he’s
ever done. The nomination is the reward here.
4. Daniel Day-Lewis,
Phantom Thread
For Him: Many call him the greatest
living actor, and since this is apparently his last film, it is the last chance
to give him an Oscar – a feat that would tie him with Katherine Hepburn for
most all time. The support for the film is broader than anticipated, so that
can only help.
Against Him: It took Hepburn twice the
number of nominations (12) that Day-Lewis has to win that fourth Oscar, and I
really don’t think there’s a pressing need to give him his fourth – and third
in just over 10 years. The nomination itself is a fitting goodbye from the
Academy.
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
For Him: Kaluuya has already
overcome genre bias, and a general bias against subtle, understated
performances just to get the nomination – whose to say he cannot ride the love
of the film all the way to an Oscar win? They clearly love the film, but it
could easily go home empty handed on Oscar night if he doesn’t win.
Against Him: He is a newcomer, he is a
young for a Best Actor winner, and the genre bias and bias against subtly still
applies in the winning round. The film, and now the nomination, is a huge boost
to his career – and that will likely have to be enough.
2. Timothée Chalamet, Call
Me by Your Name
For Him: Chalamet has had a real
breakout year this year – with Lady Bird alongside this performance – that has
made the young actor into a star. The passion of his supporters is intense. The
critical establishment really went to bat for Chalamet, and turned him from a
perhaps unlikely nominee, into an actual threat for the win.
Against Him: He would be the youngest
Best Actor winner ever – by quite a margin as well – as the Academy typically
makes actors (not actresses) wait. The film didn’t quite get the broad support
he may need to push off a season long frontrunner. For someone of his age, the
nomination is HUGE for his career – and likely going to have be enough.
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest
Hour
For Him: Oldman has been doing
great work in films for 30-plus years at this point, and the Academy has mostly
overlooked his brilliant career (he has only got one other nomination – for
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy) – he is LONG overdue for recognition. The role is
catnip for Oscar voters – playing Churchill at his most blustery, under layers
of makeup.
Against Him: Doesn’t playing Winston
Churchill under layers of makeup strike you as a little too much Oscar bait-y a role? It isn’t really a subtle performance,
and the film feels old fashioned in a year like this. There are those spousal
abuse allegations making the rounds, and if it takes hold, it could derail him.
Will Win: Gary Oldman has been the Oscar
frontrunner since the fall festival circuit when Darkest Hour premiered, and
nothing has much threatened that, even when others were winning all the critics’
awards, we knew Oldman was still secure. The competition isn’t strong enough to
knock him off – with two previous, multiple winners, and two newcomers, who
they like to make wait.
Should Win: While I don’t think it’s
quite at the level of Lincoln or There Will Be Blood, Daniel Day-Lewis is brilliant in Phantom Thread, as a fussy man,
who doesn’t quite know what he’s getting himself into. He plays things closer
to the vest, and quieter than normal – and is great.
Least of the Nominees: I have mixed feelings about the work of Denzel Washington in Roman J. Israel,
Esq. – I still don’t know if it’s a good performance, but it’s an interesting
one from him, and completely different than anything he’s done before. It’s the
weakest – but I do hope the nomination gets some people to wrestle with the
performance – and movie – like I have.
Lead Actress:
5. Meryl Streep, The Post
For Her: In the #MeToo year,
Streep’s role and performance really is a powerful one – as she is constantly
in rooms full of men, all of whom talk down to her, but finds her inner
strength anyway. She’s got 21 nominations, and three wins – you figure at some
point they may give her a fourth to tie Hepburn.
Against Her: There is no pressing need
to give Streep a fourth win right now – and The Post didn’t quite catch with
the Academy the way they hoped. She may well get to 4 wins – just not this
year.
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
For Her: The Oscars love it when a
beautiful, young actress truly breaks through with a remarkable performance –
and they often win. Here, Robbie really has to dig deep and hit many different
notes and tones, and make a sympathetic character out of Tonya Harding, but not
too sympathetic. She threads that needle brilliantly. Even those who don’t seem
to like the film’s portrayal of Harding don’t seem to blame Robbie – who they
still love.
Against Her: In another year, I think
she could easily win. This year, she’s a long shot at best – sometimes strength
of competition really is your only weakness.
3. Saoirse Ronan, Lady
Bird
For Her: She’s only 22, and already
on her third nomination – which is about the number than they really start
feeling like you’re overdue. Remarkably, all three performances are so
completely different that they really show off her range. She anchors one of
the most beloved movies of the year.
Against Her: I have a feeling that role
isn’t quite show-offy enough to overtake the top 2. Comedies don’t much win
acting Oscars, and even though there is a lot more going on in Lady Bird, that
is the perception. Oddly, the fact that her three nominations come from such
different performances – and she hasn’t really become a huge star – may hurt
that overdue narrative a little. There’s little doubt she’s winning one of
these – just not this year.
2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape
of Water
For Her: This is her second
nomination, and it’s a show-off performance, which requires her not to speak
the whole time, and show a massive range of emotions. She’s in the best picture
frontrunner, which can never be a bad thing. Even if you don’t love the movie, it’s
hard not to love her in it.
Against Her: There is so much technical
wizardry going on in the movie, I wonder if at times the performances are
overshadowed – not an issue with the performance I think will win, which is
front and center. In another year, she could be a shoo-in, here she may make it
interesting.
1. Frances McDormand,
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
For Her: This has been one of the
most talked about and praised performances of the year – even those who don’t
particularly like the movie, don’t seem to have a problem with her in. In the
#MeToo year, this kind of fiery performance may be seen as a rallying cry.
She’s also great at speeches – because she doesn’t seem to give a shit if she
pisses anyone off. How can you not love Frances McDormand?
Against Her: The backlash against the
film could be enough to knock her back just enough that someone else sneaks in.
She has an Oscar already – something the next three in line do not.
Will Win: I think Frances McDormand is pretty much a
shoo-in here. If there was just one other performance knocking at the door,
than sure, the backlash against the film may hurt – but with three of them, the
competition is probably too diluted to take hold.
Should Win: I’ll go with the popular
choice and say Frances McDormand, who
grabs hold of that film and won’t let go. It’s her best work since Fargo –
which is one of the best performances in history.
Least of the Nominees: I really don’t want to choose – all five of these
performances were in my personal top 10. I think Meryl Streep was lowest – but like Best Director, a ridiculously
strong field.
Supporting Actor:
5. Christopher Plummer,
All the Money in the World
For Him: How amazing of a story is
this – that he was cast in November, and in January he gets an Oscar
nomination? The only thing that would make it better is if he actually won! The
narrative is irresistible.
Against Him: While the reviews were
strong for Plummer, they weren’t for the rest of the movie. He’s against four
well respected veterans, none of whom have won an Oscar before, and he has. The
nomination makes sure this remarkable story won’t be forgotten – but it’s the
reward.
4. Woody Harrelson, Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
For Him: A very well respected
veteran, on this third nomination, without a victory he is overdue for some
Oscar love. It is a great performance, and an unforgettable one. Since the
controversy around the film mainly swirls around the other role nominated in
this category, they could give Harrelson an Oscar, and reward the film, but
steer (a little) clear of the hornets’ nest.
Against Him: The internal competition
with Rockwell will eat Harrelson alive. Rockwell has won more of the prizes, so
if anything, Harrelson will spoil his parade, not go after the win himself. His
time should come – it’s just not this year.
3. Richard Jenkins, The
Shape of Water
For Him: A well respected character
actor, on his second nomination, Jenkins really is a delight in this film – as
a gay man and who drinks to hide the pain, who decides to go all in for his
friend. It’s a sweet, delightful performance – and should Rockwell falter, the
love could fall to Jenkins as having a key role in the Oscar frontrunner.
Although through the season, he had internal completion, as some groups went
with Michael Shannon, he’s by himself this time.
Against Him: I wonder if Jenkins is
just missing that one big Oscar moment that could truly put him in play in this
race. You expect the Oscar winner to have won something – and it just didn’t
happen for Jenkins.
2. Willem Dafoe, The
Florida Project
For Him: He is clearly the critic’s
favorite – he pretty much swept all of those awards. He is a well-respected
veteran actor, doing great work for more than 30 years, and on his third
nomination now. If the Academy wants to street clear of Rockwell given the
controversy around the film, Dafoe is right there waiting.
Against Him: The film was also a huge
critics favorite – and yet, this is the only nomination it secured, meaning
critics loved it more than the Academy. He hasn’t won one of the BIG
precursors, which is usually what you need.
1. Sam Rockwell, Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
For Him: Rockwell has been around
for a while, doing solid work, so even if this is his first nomination, he has
a solid enough resume to win. He also has the Golden Globe and the SAG award.
While there has been controversy around the role that somehow hasn’t much
translated into people criticizing Rockwell.
Against Him: That controversy really
could sink him – although it hasn’t so far. If the love for Harrelson is real,
then internal competition could cost them both the win.
Will Win: It seems silly to bet
against Sam Rockwell, so I won’t.
The controversy around the role is real, but it hasn’t slowed him down much
this season – no reason to think it will now.
Should Win: Willem Dafoe delivers perhaps the best
performance of his brilliant career in The Florida Project – such a rich,
sympathetic, natural character that blends in well. In a better world, he’s
your winner.
Least of the Nominees: I do quite like Christopher
Plummer in All the Money in the World, but it’s hard to argue he’s not the
weakest link here.
Supporting Actress:
5. Octavia Spencer, The
Shape of Water
For Her: She’s in the best picture
frontrunner, so a sweep could push her along. She’s been nominated three times
now, in a relatively short period of time – they’ll clearly like her.
Against Her: The film was liked so much
that she got sweep in for a nomination – but I just don’t see there being
enough here for a win, especially since she has won already, and no one else in
the category has.
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
For Her: It would not be the first
time the Academy awarded a singer who decided to act, and did so brilliantly.
Mudbound has a very passionate fanbase that could help push her along.
Against Her: If the fan based was that passionate, it would have picked up
a few more major nominations than it did. While she got nominated everywhere,
she hasn’t won much this season. It’s a quiet, subtle performance.
3. Lesley Manville,
Phantom Thread
For Her: She is a well-respected
veteran, and they clearly loved the performance, since she got in with little
precursor support. People are still not over the fact she didn’t get nominated
for Mike Leigh’s Another Year – here’s a chance to fully, completely rectify
that injustice, and give her the prize.
Against Her: It just is not her year –
the race has been dominated by two performances, and nothing is changing that.
Much of her best work is silent, and in the background.
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady
Bird
For Her: She is a well-respected
actress, who has had a long career on stage and screen – and while almost all
of that is on TV, so is the work of her major rival. This is the type of story
they love, when an actress plugs along for years, and finally get a big screen
role that was made for her. Out of the nominees, they clearly like her film the
best – and it may walk away empty handed if they don’t give it to her.
Against Her: It’s a little less
show-offy than Janney’s work, and Janney won the major prizes. While she is
respected, it’s not as much as Janney either. This is more about her
competition than her.
1. Allison Janney, I,
Tonya
For Her: Janney is beloved in the
industry, and while that has mainly been on TV (where she has won tons of
Emmys), those lines are dissolving more than ever before. This is the kind of
big, brash, ballsy role that they love to reward – and Janney plays it to the
hilt. She has the Globe and the SaG
Against Her: I, Tonya wasn’t nominated
for Best Picture, and Lady Bird was. For those who want more depth and feeling
in their Oscar winning mother role, that’s also Metcalf.
Will Win: Allison Janney probably has this – and
while it is a deserved win, I must say I’m puzzled a little, because before the
Globes and SAG, I assume Metcalf was the frontrunner. Not quite sure why Janney
seems to have this locked in.
Should Win: Lesley
Manville
really does deliver a masterclass in understated, background acting through
Phantom Thread – and it’s one of my very favorite performances of the year. (In
case the above wasn’t clear though, since this is a two horse race, I’d throw
support behind Metcalf).
Least of the Nominees: I always find it boring when the Academy just throws
in a good supporting performance in a film they love – like the one delivered
by Octavia Spencer – rather than a
great performance in perhaps a lesser movie. It makes you wonder just how many
films they don’t see.
Adapted Screenplay:
5. Logan, Scott Frank
& James Mangold and Michael Green
For Them: Far and away the highest
grossing movie nominated, and one of the best reviewed superhero movies ever.
If superheroes really are the new norm in Hollywood, eventually, the Academy
will embrace them right?
Against Them: Not this year. This got in
because it was a really, really weak year in this category. It’s cool it got
nominated, but that’s about it.
4. The Disaster Artist,
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
For Them: The movie is fun and
funny, and about Hollywood – which the Academy often loves. There is a segment
of people who love The Room, so who knows?
Against Them: They didn’t nominate
Franco, so that pretty much spell doom for the slim chance they had to actually
win this.
3. Molly’s Game, Aaron
Sorkin
For Him: They do quite like Sorkin
– who keeps getting nominated in the writing categories, even if they don’t
embrace the movie (this is the lone nod it got). It feels like the most
“written” of the films, and the one whose success is most derived from the
screenplay.
Against Him: They didn’t like the movie
as much – Chastain couldn’t even get in. He has an Oscar already, so this isn’t
his year.
2. Mudbound, Virgil
Williams and Dee Rees
For Them: Mudbound has a lot of
passionate fans, and the film got more noms than some expected. This will get a
lot of votes, and will be the spoiler in the category. It’s also an intricately
structured screenplay, with multiple character arcs, and is expertly written –
and is timely as well.
Against Them: I wonder how much
anti-Netflix bias there is amongst the old school wing of the Academy. The
passionate fan base couldn’t push it into the Best Picture lineup.
1. Call Me by Your Name,
James Ivory
For Him: The only nominee from a
Best Picture nominee this year, it automatically becomes the frontrunner. Add
in the passionate fanbase of the film – who do not want to see it get
overlooked, and the fact that Ivory is a multiple past nominee (for Best
Director), and is 89(!) so its likely his last chance, and its almost a
prohibitive frontrunner.
Against Him: I wonder how much people
think Luca Guadanino (who apparently did some uncredited work on the
screenplay, as well as directing) is the real reason why the film is so good –
and the performances – and the screenplay was secondary.
Will Win: Call Me By Your
Name is a
safe, easy call for them, and no one will much complain when he wins. Mudbound
is a legit dark horse candidate here though.
Should Win: Call Me By
Your Name really
is an intricately structured and written piece – regardless of who’s
responsible. Yes, the directors and actors make the film, but the screenplay is
more than good enough to win a weak category.
Least of the Nominees: I like The
Disaster Artist a great deal, but the screenplay pulls some punches, and
the film is really all about Franco’s performance, and the cast being game to
do what they need to do.
Original Screenplay:
5. The Shape of Water,
Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
For Them: The film is the Best
Picture frontrunner right now, and that normally means you have a good chance
at winning the screenplay award you’re up for.
Against Them: When you talk about The
Shape of Water, you mention the direction, the performances and the great
technical details – and then, maybe, the screenplay. The other for nominees
have their screenplay front and center, and so while its odd, I think the Best
Picture frontrunner is a long shot here.
4. The Big Sick, Emily V.
Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
For Them: This is one of the best
feel good stories of the year – a married couple writes a movie about the
unconventional way they fell in love, it becomes a hit film, and the couple
themselves seem like the nicest people in the world. Who doesn’t want to see
what would be the most adorable Oscar speech in history?
Against Them: As the films only
nominees, its clear the Academy didn’t love the film as much as others (the
other four are major Oscar contenders). It is a great feel good story, but it
stops at the nomination for them.
3. Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
For Her: In many years, Lady Bird
would be the prohibitive frontrunner for this prize – a great, young, emerging
director who also wrote the screenplay for a beloved film, that probably isn’t
winning the Best Picture or Director Oscar, this would be a constellation prize
for Gerwig. The passionate fanbase is voting for it.
Against Her: Jordan Peele has the same
basic narrative this year, and Three Billboards has won the precursor awards. I
think it’s possible, but it’s a longer shot than it normally would be.
2. Three Billboards
Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Martin McDonagh
For Him: One of the most talked
about films of the year, with the wittiest, most quotable screenplay. The film
is making a real push to win Best Picture, and while that may not happen, it
could easily win here. He has enough precursor support.
Against Him: The screenplay really is
at the heart of the backlash against the film, so some will not vote for it
just because of that. There is perhaps more passion behind some of his
competition.
1. Get Out, Jordan Peele
For Him: The film has been a hit
all year, and there will be quite a contingent who want to reward Peele for
that and he is unlikely to win Best Director, so if he’s going to win, it’s
here. The screenplay has been winning awards all season – mostly from critics groups
– and it is an intricate piece of writing. It did win the WGA award (although
Three Billboards wasn’t eligible).
Against Him: His main competition has
won the bigger awards, and is making a real push to win Best Picture – and
similarly, will be the only place they can reward the writer/director. Genre
bias will not help.
Will Win: I see this as a genuine
three way race, and wouldn’t be shocked to see any of those win. I think Get Out has overtaken its competition
down the stretch – but it’s still neck and neck.
Should Win: Lots of great work
nominated here, but I’ll go with Get Out
which has layers on top of layers, and is perhaps the best screenplay of
anything this year.
Least of the Nominees: A strong lineup, but I’ll say The Shape of Water because its success is least dependent on the
screenplay of any of the nominees.
Animated Feature:
5. Ferdinand
4. The Boss Baby
3. The Breadwinner
2. Loving Vincent
1. Coco
Analysis: Someone really does need
to do a deep dive into why this branch hates the Lego movies – the original won
pretty much every award that yet but wasn’t even nominated by the Academy, and
now The Lego Batman Movie is also not-nominated – which had they gone with
something better than The Boss Baby and Ferdinand than okay, but they did.
Seriously though, nothing is beating Coco.
Will Win: Coco wins this one in a
cakewalk – not great Pixar sometimes wins this, so a great one like Coco is
easy, especially in this field.
Should Win: A part of me wants to see
The Breadwinner do it – because I love that studio, even if I think this is
perhaps their weakest to date. Still, Coco
is head and shoulders above the rest of the field.
Least of the Nominees: The Boss Baby I guess – although, I wasn’t a huge
fan of Ferdinand or Loving Vincent either.
Best Documentary Feature:
5. Abacus: Small Enough to
Jail
4. Icarus
3. Last Men in Aleppo
2. Strong Island
1. Faces Places
Analysis: I have to say I was
shocked than Jane didn’t get nominated – I thought it was going to win this one
going away. Also surprised to see City of Ghosts and Human Flow overlooked as
well. This isn’t a bad lineup overall, but I’m not really sure which why they’ll
go. Do they finally give an Oscar to Steven James and go with Abacus? Go
timely, and give it to Icarus on the eve of the Olympics and the Russia
scandal? Go for the heartstrings and Syria and Last Men in Aleppo? Timely, and
closer to home, with Strong Island about violence against African Americans by
white people? Or give it to a legend, and go Faces Places? I can see an
argument for any of them.
Will Win: I am guessing Faces Places wins this, but really you
can make a case for any of them.
Should Win: Faces Places was my favorite doc of the
year, so I’m really hopeful it wins this. The other docs are all good, but not
in the same league.
Least of the Nominees: I suppose Icarus
is my least favorite, because the director doesn’t quite realize his own Super
Size Me like doping crusade isn’t as interesting as the rest of the doc, and
spends far too much time on it.
Best Foreign Language Film
5. On Body and Soul
(Hungary)
4. The Square (Sweden)
3. The Insult (Lebanon)
2. A Fantastic Woman
(Chile)
1. Loveless (Russia)
Analysis: I am quite bad at figuring
out which way they’re going to go here, as there seems to be no rhyme or reason
to their choices. It doesn’t help that three of these films are ones that
haven’t really opened yet. I will guess, based on critical and audience
reactions that the top three are in contention – I know The Square is too
divisive to win, and I suspect On Body and Soul will be too.
Will Win: I think Loveless will be the one to beat here –
people love it, and it is apparently an emotional powerhouse. A Fantastic Woman
could sneak in because of its timeliness, and the critical reaction has been
strong. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Hollywood style storytelling of The Insult
resonates with them however.
Should Win: I haven’t seen A Fantastic Woman (I just haven't had time) of the other four, I loved Lovless most, a devastating movie.
Least of the Nominees: I saw The
Insult at TIFF, and didn’t like it much – it all felt too on the nose and
obvious to me, no matter how well intentioned.
Cinematography:
5. Darkest Hour, Bruno
Delbonnel
4. Mudbound, Rachel
Morrison
3. Dunkirk, Hoyte van
Hoytema
2. Blade Runner 2049,
Roger Deakins
1. The Shape of Water, Dan
Laustsen
Analysis: It seems like every year,
Roger Deakins gets nominated, and every year we wonder if this will be his year
– and it never happens. This is nomination 14 after all. He actually has a
chance – a good chance – to win this award this year, and yet, I cannot help
but think that one of the best picture nominees will take it, and we’ll be
asking this question again a year from now.
Will Win: The Shape of
Water is
the frontrunner in Best Picture, and it has beautiful cinematography – the type
that can often win here. I think it does it, although I could be talked into
Deakins for Blade Runner or Hoytema for Dunkirk.
Should Win: Even if I didn’t think
Deakins is one of the best around, and really want to see him win an Oscar, I
would think his work on Blade Runner 2049
was the best of the year, and deserving of the win.
Least of the Nominees: All five of these films have fine cinematography –
but in year that included a lot of terrific work that didn’t make the cut, I
find the nomination for Darkest Hour to
be the weak link.
Film Editing:
5. I, Tonya
4. Three Billboards
Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. The Shape of Water
2. Baby Driver
1. Dunkirk
Analysis: You could probably make a
case for any of the movies if you wanted to, but I think this is basically a
two horse race – and one is way out in front. They have gone with action movies
that didn’t get traction in the major categories many times before, so Baby
Driver – and the brilliant work there isn’t out of the question. Yet, they also
love war movies here, and the structure and the action of Dunkirk really makes
it the prohibitive favorite.
Will Win: I really don’t think
anything is really challenging Dunkirk here,
even if it doesn’t break through in the major categories, it’s winning some
tech awards.
Should Win: It really is a tough call
here between Dunkirk and Baby Driver, but
I loved the work on Wright’s film so good that I’ll go with that one.
Least of the Nominees: It’s strange, I often complain that the Academy
should go with more understated work, yet I’ll pick the most understated work
here in Three Billboards outside Ebbing,
Missouri is the weakest nominee. Not because it’s bad, but because I don’t
quite know what about the editing makes it stand out from any number of other
films.
Sound Editing:
5. Baby Driver
4. Star Wars: The Last
Jedi
3. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
1. Dunkirk
Analysis: In terms of sound, this
year both Dunkirk and Blade Runner 2049 would normally be the run away,
prohibitive favorite. I don’t think the other three have much of a shot here,
so flip a coin, and choose between those two.
Will Win: I really do think Dunkirk wins this one – they like war
movies, and this is the type of film they want to give some awards to, even if
it’s not much of a factor in the bigger races.
Should Win: I’ll go with Blade Runner 2049 – which I think
outdoes Dunkirk just a little bit.
Least of the Nominees: The work on The
Shape of Water is fine – but I think the other four nominees are simply
better.
Sound Mixing
5. Baby Driver
4. Star Wars: The Last
Jedi
3. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
1. Dunkirk
Analysis: Look at what I said in
Sound Editing, and basically repeat here. More often than not, the two sound
categories match up.
Will Win: I tempted to hedge my bets
and go Blade Runner 2049 – and maybe if you’re in an Oscar pool, it’s a smart
idea, so you’ll go ½ on the sound categories. I just think Dunkirk is the safer bet.
Should Win: I went with Blade Runner
2049 in editing, so I’ll go with Dunkirk
here. It’s a coin flip to see which is better.
Least of the Nominees: Again, I like the work on The Shape of Water – but I’ll rank it at the bottom at five worthy
nominees.
Original Score
5. Star Wars: The Last
Jedi, John Williams
4. Three Billboards
Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Carter Burwell
3. Dunkirk, Hans Zimmer
2. Phantom Thread, Jonny
Greenwood
1. The Shape of Water,
Alexandre Desplat
Analysis: I’m happy with these
nominees for the most part – doesn’t happen often with this branch. They’ve
finally let Jonny Greenwood in the club, and now that Burwell got his first
nomination (for Carol), perhaps he can finally become the perennial candidate
he deserves to be. I think the top three have a shot here, but Academy favorite
Alexandre Desplat has the kind of work here they really love.
Will Win: Desplat is a 9 time
nominee, but has only one win so far (for The Grand Budapest Hotel). His work
on The Shape of Water is the kind of
score they love – so while I think Greenwood and Zimmer have a shot – I
wouldn’t bet on either of them.
Should Win: Jonny Greenwood continues
to amaze me with his work, and finding just the right score for Anderson’s
films, no matter how different they are. His work on Phantom Thread runs almost throughout the entire films, and is
great.
Least of the Nominees: At the risk of being accused of sacrilege, I think
I’d have to say John Williams for Star
Wars: The Last Jedi. The actual new work on the film is rather forgettable
right?
Original
Song
5. Marshall - Stand Up for
Something
4. Mudbound - Mighty River
3. The Greatest Showman -
This Is Me
2. Call Me By Your Name -
Mystery of Love
1. Coco - Remember Me
Analysis: This is always a hard call
to make, because it doesn’t seem like the Academy has very good taste in music
(maybe it’s got a lot of Grammy voters in it who keep finding ways to not give
Kendrick Lamar album of the year). Still, it’s not a bad lineup here, even if
none of them really broke out of the movie bubble. I think the top three have a
shot.
Will Win: I’ll say Coco – Remember Me win this one,
because it’s the most popular. Although I could very easily be talked into thinking
that Call Me By Your Name lovers will get behind Mystery of Love, or even the
cheesy branch will go with The Greatest Showman, so use your best judgment.
Should Win: Personally, I prefer
Visions of Gideon of the two Sufjan Stevens songs from Call Me By Your Name, but it’s so close, I’ll be more than happy to
see Mystery of Love win.
Least of the Nominees: This is a tough one, but I listened to all five
songs back-to-back, and while there are no embarrassments here (as there often
are), I’d say Mighty River from Mudbound
is the least memorable, no matter how Mary J. Blige can belt it out.
Production Design:
5. Darkest Hour
4. Dunkirk
3. Beauty and the Beast
2. Blade Runner 2049
1. The Shape
of Water
Analysis: I think this is basically
a three way race – I don’t think Darkest Hour or Dunkirk have much of a shot
here. If they go with MOST Production Design, which they often seem to, than
Beauty and the Beast could easily win. If they want to reward completely different,
new environment, Blade Runner 2049 could win. If they want a mixture of period,
movie history, and genre, than it’s The Shape of Water.
Will Win: Ultimately, I think the Best
Picture status is what pushes The Shape
of Water into the lead, and while those two could challenge, I don’t really
see it happening.
Should Win: It’s a tough call for me –
I really do think the production design may just be the best thing in The Shape
of Water – but what they did on Blade
Runner 2049 really is spectacular.
Least of the Nominees: Darkest Hour is fine work to be sure – but I also
think it’s a rather lazy choice.
Costume Design
5. Victoria and Abdul
4. Darkest Hour
3. Beauty and the Beast
2. The Shape of Water
1. Phantom Thread
Analysis: An interesting category,
and another three way race. MOST Costumes equals Beauty and the Beast,
nostalgia and genre gives you The Shape of Water. And yet, given the care we
see with the costumes, and the talk of them in the film itself, Phantom Thread
may be the favorite. It’s also unlikely to win elsewhere, so maybe?
Will Win: I think Phantom Thread has the edge here, but
perhaps that’s wishful thinking.
Should Win: The work on Phantom Thread truly is stunning – and
easily the best on the bunch my quite a bit.
Least of the Nominees: The work on Victoria
& Abdul is fine and not much else.
Makeup and Hair:
3. Victoria and Abdul
2. Wonder
1. Darkest Hour
Analysis: Whether they give this
award to something more realistic or fantastical – they like very obvious
makeup work. That leaves Victoria & Abdul out. For the other two, flip a
coin – but the Best Picture nominee has the edge.
Will Win: They do love it when makeup
transforms a famous actor into a famous person – so Darkest Hour is probably going to win here, but Wonder has a shot.
Should Win: I didn’t see Wonder, so
I’m judging it on the trailer alone. I guess Darkest Hour is the best?
Least of the Nominees: I’m not quite sure what work on Victoria and Abdul impressed the branch this much to get one of
three slots.
Visual Effects
5. Kong: Skull Island
4. Guardians of the Galaxy
Vol. 2
3. Star Wars: The Last
Jedi
2. War for the Planet of
the Apes
1. Blade Runner 2049
Analysis: I do think there will be
some who think the time has come to give the team behind the rebooted Planet of
the Apes films an Oscar here – they’ve done amazing work for three straight
films, and haven’t won yet – in many year, that may be enough. Here, though, I
think they will remain a bridesmaid – because one film just stands head and
shoulder above anything else.
Will Win: I don’t think anything is
really coming close to beating out Blade
Runner 2049. Sometimes, this can go a strange way (like when Ex Machina
won) – but that doesn’t happen much.
Should Win: Again, I would love to say the War of the Planet
of the Apes team – but Blade Runner 2049
is truly remarkable work.
Least of the Nominees: Kong: Skull Island? Really? Over Okja or Wonder
Woman or Dunkirk or (name about 10 other films). Sure, I guess.
